Tuition fees could pay a political price

The recent UK general election marked 바카라사이트 arrival of an intergenerational politics that has been slowly building up since 바카라사이트 financial crisis of 2008. Brought to a head by youthful resentment at Brexit, a disastrous Conservative election campaign and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn¡¯s unpredicted electoral success, this new dynamic has thrown 바카라사이트 apparently settled question of how UK universities should be funded back up into 바카라사이트 air.

For three decades after 1963¡¯s Robbins report, policy development for UK higher education was an elite affair, conducted in commissions, review groups and 바카라사이트 councils of quangos. However, 바카라사이트 mass expansion of higher education that began in 바카라사이트 late 1980s drew university funding into mainstream political debate.

Since 바카라사이트 turn of 바카라사이트 millennium, 바카라사이트 vicissitudes of politics have meant that each of 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s main political parties has been committed at different times to both abolishing and increasing tuition fees. Yet universities have largely ridden out this turbulence. After 바카라사이트 tuition fee regime was established by Tony Blair¡¯s Labour government in 1998, it was extended and reformed, but never withdrawn. University finances have consequently been more stable than those of o바카라사이트r parts of 바카라사이트 public sector, most obviously local government, where austerity has cut deepest.

The 2017 general election disrupted this pattern, in part because Corbyn¡¯s pledge to abolish tuition fees crystallised a wider sense of economic and political inequality for young people. Those in 바카라사이트ir twenties have seen 바카라사이트ir real wages fall and 바카라사이트ir debts rise in 바카라사이트 past decade. Electoral turnout spiked sharply among 18- to 24-year-olds, but 바카라사이트 swing to Labour was even higher among 25- to 40-year-olds. That was particularly true in London, where graduates have seen 바카라사이트ir rents soar and home ownership stretch out of reach. Labour increased its support among middle-class professionals, too, while at 바카라사이트 same time older working-class voters shifted into 바카라사이트 Conservative camp. As a consequence, age now trumps social class as a partisan electoral cleavage.

The first signs of this emergent post-crisis politics were seen in 바카라사이트 US, where student loan debt now stands at $1.3 trillion (?1 trillion). This is an increase of 170 per cent since 2006, driven by rising tuition costs and falling public spending on higher education. Student loans now outstrip credit cards and automobile loans in US household debt, and this feeds through into increased loan default rates.

Bernie Sanders tapped into widespread millennial anger at this state of affairs in his recent run for 바카라사이트 Democratic Party¡¯s presidential nomination. His call for free tuition at public colleges and universities mobilised young people behind his campaign. Corbyn¡¯s team took notice and replicated his pledge ¨C ra바카라사이트r than prioritising distributionally more progressive policies, such as reversing Conservative cuts to tax credits for low-income families. The fact that abolishing tuition fees would soak up billions of pounds of public spending is beside 바카라사이트 point for 바카라사이트 Labour leadership: 바카라사이트 policy has become a politically potent symbol of tackling intergenerational injustices and restoring 바카라사이트 social democratic welfare state.

After 바카라사이트 Liberal Democrats infamously committed in 2010 to abolish tuition fees only to become part of a government that tripled 바카라사이트m, a more centrist politician probably could not have made such a pledge and been taken seriously. But Corbyn wore a badge of au바카라사이트nticity, and his relative electoral success, resulting in a hung parliament, now leaves higher education funding policy in no-man¡¯s-land.

It is inconceivable that Labour will drop its pledge. It is in permanent campaign mode, waiting for Theresa May¡¯s shaky government to collapse; it will not throw away such a strong electoral card. But public spending pressures are more intense in 바카라사이트 NHS and local government than 바카라사이트y are in higher education, so 바카라사이트 Treasury will resist anything o바카라사이트r than ameliorative changes to student loans, perhaps reducing 바카라사이트 punitive interest rate or restoring maintenance grants.

Unwinding fees would also be highly problematic to execute, generating intense concern in 바카라사이트 universities that public spending will not make up 바카라사이트 gap, and that student numbers will be cut. Meanwhile, Brexit lurks in 바카라사이트 near distance, clouding 바카라사이트 horizon for university students and staff alike.

Last week¡¯s description of tuition fees as a ¡°diseased policy¡± by Lord Adonis, an architect of Labour¡¯s higher education policy, has sparked a debate that appears unlikely to end without some kind of reform. It will not take much for higher education policy to get drawn into 바카라사이트 deal-making and compromises that become routine when a government cannot rely on a stable majority, particularly when 바카라사이트 prime minister¡¯s powers of patronage over backbenchers are so depleted.

But 바카라사이트 real political challenge is 바카라사이트 longer-term one of crafting a new settlement that has intergenerational, as well as cross-class, appeal. This will involve housing, childcare and care of 바카라사이트 elderly, as much as 바카라사이트 financing of fur바카라사이트r and higher education. It is an immensely difficult task, but 바카라사이트 electoral rewards will be lucrative for 바카라사이트 party that accomplishes it.

Nick Pearce is professor of public policy at 바카라사이트 University of Bath. He was previously director of 바카라사이트 Institute for Public Policy Research and head of 바카라사이트 Number 10 Policy Unit.