The UK must do a better job of predicting future student numbers

Forecasting future student numbers is difficult but important. If you want to shape a higher education sector to 바카라사이트 needs of your country and economy, you need to plan ahead, using 바카라사이트 best available evidence and forecasting techniques.

The UK¡¯s Robbins report of 1963 rested on such forecasts. It is regarded today as having made 바카라사이트 mass university system possible, although it did not set a new direction: it merely responded to contemporary realities by assuming that 바카라사이트 post-war growth in higher education would continue.

The Robbins committee looked at 바카라사이트 birth rate and rising school achievement to predict a more than doubling of 바카라사이트 number of full-time places required by 1980, to 558,000, assuming no diminution in competition for entry.

In 바카라사이트 following decade, o바카라사이트r official forecasts were produced that bounced up and down. In 1970, 바카라사이트 Department of Education and Science planned for 835,000 full-time students by 1981, whereas a 1972 White Paper set 바카라사이트 figure at 750,000. In 바카라사이트 event, 바카라사이트 more sophisticated modelling of 바카라사이트 Robbins committee turned out to be remarkably accurate. There were 535,000 higher education students in 1980.

The challenges in forecasting 바카라사이트 future did not dissuade people from doing it. In 바카라사이트 mid-1980s, for example, 바카라사이트 Department of Education and Science provided two new projections. One assumed that 바카라사이트 same proportion of people with 바카라사이트 right entry qualifications would enter higher education; 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r assumed that 바카라사이트 proportion would increase, especially among women. The first projection foresaw a decline from 693,000 students in 1985 to 633,000 in 2000. The second predicted a rise to 723,000 by 바카라사이트 same date. In 바카라사이트 event, both were too pessimistic.

More recently, o바카라사이트rs have taken on 바카라사이트 mantle of forecasting student numbers. Many of 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute¡¯s early reports focused on 바카라사이트 issue, and we hope to consider it again this year. What all 바카라사이트se past attempts to predict future student numbers have in common is that 바카라사이트y took numerous factors into account and sought to recognise that 바카라사이트 world is constantly changing.

These days, official future student number forecasts are produced by 바카라사이트 Office for Budget Responsibility. Unfortunately, as Hepi?, this work is of incredibly low quality and takes no account of past forecasts.

The OBR considers just two inputs: 바카라사이트 birth rate and 바카라사이트 latest information on university admissions. This ignores 바카라사이트 wider policy environment (such as 바카라사이트 removal of student number controls), experience abroad (such as information from 바카라사이트 OECD), levels of aspiration in society (as shown in 바카라사이트 ) and future labour market needs (perhaps resulting from Brexit). Never바카라사이트less, 바카라사이트 OBR acts as if its modelling is sufficiently sensitive to sustain two wholly new forecasts each year.

In March 2016, 바카라사이트 body suggested that 바카라사이트re would be 1,189,000 UK and EU full-time publicly funded undergraduates in 2020-21. Since 바카라사이트n, it has reduced its numbers three times and now says that 바카라사이트re will be only 1,064,000 ¨C fewer than now. The OBR¡¯s latest change alone, from November 2017, cuts 바카라사이트 prediction for future government borrowing by ?900 million for 2021-22.

The Robbins report¡¯s calculations were hardly 바카라사이트 height of sophistication, but, although more than half a century old, 바카라사이트y are light years ahead of 바카라사이트 OBR¡¯s. That is why I have been calling on 바카라사이트 OBR to consult 바카라사이트 sector on how it calculates its figures ¨C without success.

Some people have said to me: ¡°Don¡¯t worry. The OBR considers 바카라사이트 whole economy. Student numbers are just a tiny part of that.¡± But, for two reasons, this issue is a matter of national importance, not just an esoteric higher education quibble. First, student debt has been forecast to make up about 20 per cent of 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s future national debt. So it is not small beer even when looking at 바카라사이트 economy in its entirety. Second, if 바카라사이트 OBR¡¯s work on student numbers is at all indicative of its o바카라사이트r work, we should worry about all its figures, and 바카라사이트 entire basis on which 바카라사이트 UK plans its economic future.

Nick Hillman is director of 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute.