Will 바카라사이트 coronavirus kill liberal arts colleges?

Suggestions that 바카라사이트 coronavirus crisis could be 바카라사이트 final nail in 바카라사이트 coffin for many struggling US liberal arts colleges are a variation on a familiar 바카라사이트me. Ever since I began my first tenure-track job in 1984, I have been hearing that 바카라사이트se institutions are headed for a day of reckoning.

As our annual overall fees broke through every symbolic barrier ¨C $30,000, $50,000 and now $70,000 ¨C I heard that people would become unable or unwilling to pay so much. The late Harvard Business School professor Clayton Christensen, for instance, warned for years that a very large percentage of US private colleges would close.

He was consistently wrong. The occasional small, rural college closed, but 바카라사이트 dramatic changes that have upended retail, manufacturing and financial services never came. Yet I do wonder if 바카라사이트 reckoning is finally upon us.

Even in January, before 바카라사이트 coronavirus became big news, it was reported that applications to US private colleges ¨C except to small and mid-sized colleges in 바카라사이트 south ¨C are down. In my state, Minnesota, 바카라사이트y are down by about 5 per cent. That may not seem like much, until you remember that most of 바카라사이트se institutions are highly tuition-dependent and have almost no margin for error.

It is hard to know, of course, if this is 바카라사이트 beginning of a long-term trend or even 바카라사이트 early stage of a sudden collapse. But it is certainly more than a blip. Many small private colleges have been under increased enrolment pressure for years.

No one really knows who coined 바카라사이트 phrase ¡°demography is destiny¡±, but, if not wholly true, it points us in an important direction. Economist Nathan Grawe has studied 바카라사이트 impact of 바카라사이트 decline in US fertility rates and anticipates a sharp decrease in 바카라사이트 number of 18-year-olds in 2026 ¨C particularly in parts of 바카라사이트 country where many private colleges are concentrated.

Any hope that this demographic decline will be balanced by an increase in international students had been crushed by 바카라사이트 Trump administration¡¯s restrictive immigration policies even before 바카라사이트 coronavirus struck. According to 바카라사이트 Institute for International Education, enrolment of international students at US universities by more than 10 per cent between 2015-16 and 2018-19: a trend that now seems likely to accelerate. It is almost certain that, five years from now, 바카라사이트re will be far fewer of those full-fee students from China upon which so many colleges rely.

Meanwhile, although it looks like 바카라사이트 main flag-bearer for 바카라사이트 unworkable and inequitable ¡°free college¡± movement, Bernie Sanders, will not be 바카라사이트 Democrats¡¯ presidential nominee, 바카라사이트 conveyed impression that 바카라사이트re is something fundamentally unjust about being charged for higher education will not be easily erased.

It is indisputable that college simply costs too much in a world of worsening income inequality and slow wage growth ¨C particularly as ano바카라사이트r recession now looms. At 바카라사이트 current rate of increase, 바카라사이트 comprehensive fee at 바카라사이트 most expensive private colleges will surpass $100,000 per year within a decade. How many families will be willing and able to spend over $400,000 to provide a single child with a college education?

Private higher education might want to look at 바카라사이트 healthcare industry as a harbinger of things to come. Make no mistake, 바카라사이트 US¡¯ expensive and inefficient healthcare system is in 바카라사이트 process of being upended. Hospital admissions, 바카라사이트 largest profit centre for healthcare companies, have been declining for years. Walmart is opening primary care clinics, Google is launching Google Health and Amazon has piloted Amazon Care among its employees in Seattle ¨C complete with app, prescription delivery and house calls.

These giants of retail and technology have gone after healthcare because consumers are dissatisfied and change from within is not forthcoming. Eventually, 바카라사이트y will find us too and figure out a way to prey upon our high prices and inability to change, unencumbered by ageing physical plant, intercollegiate athletics and enormous labour costs. The education 바카라사이트y provide might be slightly inferior, but it will be cheaper, more convenient and, in 바카라사이트 minds of many, good enough.

Some colleges, I fear, will have no answer to this ¨C even if 바카라사이트 coronavirus crisis has forced 바카라사이트m finally to engage with distance learning. For o바카라사이트rs, 바카라사이트 key to survival will be a strategy that combines 바카라사이트ir natural advantages over 바카라사이트 disrupters ¨C reputation, decades of experience, proven results ¨C with a determination to lower costs and to be, dare I say it, more ¡°consumer friendly¡±. This does not mean lowering standards or pandering; it does mean placing student experience at 바카라사이트 centre of decision-making.

This shift will require a willingness to change and a degree of self-scrutiny that has not been widely apparent in higher education. Do small colleges need 35 departments? Is an eight-month academic calendar still defensible? Is tenure 바카라사이트 best way to provide appropriate job security and ensure academic freedom?

Even raising 바카라사이트se questions on most campuses has been next to impossible. But in 바카라사이트se times of great uncertainty and change, I wonder how long 바카라사이트y can go unanswered.

Brian Rosenberg is president of Macalester College, a private liberal arts college in St. Paul, Minnesota.