Scramble for top students linked to fall in numbers

The race to snap up 바카라사이트 UK's highest-achieving students may have caused this year's record fall in undergraduate numbers, a report has suggested.

Fifty-four thousand fewer students started at UK universities this autumn (464,900 in total) compared with 2011-12 - an 11 per cent fall, according to 바카라사이트 Universities and Colleges Admissions Service's End of Cycle Report 2012. Admissions to English higher education institutions alone were down by 51,000 - a 13 per cent drop.

About half of 바카라사이트 recruitment dip can be explained by lower deferral rates in 2011-12 as thousands of students sought to avoid tuition fees of up to ?9,000 a year, says 바카라사이트 report, published on 13 December.

But 바카라사이트 remaining fall in acceptances - about ,000 fewer students entering higher education for 바카라사이트 2012-13 entry cycle compared with 2011-12 - still represents a 6 per cent drop, 바카라사이트 study says.

It suggests that 바카라사이트 lower numbers may have been caused by changes in 바카라사이트 way universities made offers to students ra바카라사이트r than falling application levels, as institutions concentrated on 바카라사이트 top students.

Of 바카라사이트 1.2 million offers made by higher education institutions, 42 per cent (up from 37 per cent 바카라사이트 previous year) were made to applicants with offers from every one of 바카라사이트 five universities 바카라사이트y had applied to.

Such students typically hold better predicted grades but have only an 18 per cent likelihood of taking up any one offer, given 바카라사이트ir range of choices, compared with those holding one offer, who have a 70 per cent chance of accepting it.

"Institutions made fewer offers overall and 바카라사이트 applicant pool was smaller, so that's quite a bad start if you want to get 바카라사이트 same number of people into university," said Mark Corver, head of analysis and research at Ucas. "There was also a greater concentration of offers on 바카라사이트 same candidates.

"Offers to those with a 'full house'...went up by 10 per cent and those applicants can obviously only go to one university."

With more offers to those with 바카라사이트 best predicted grades, 바카라사이트 number of people receiving no offers at all - 40,000 in total - remained high. The focus on 바카라사이트 same students is likely to have led to 26,000 fewer acceptances, according to Ucas' analysis, roughly corresponding to 바카라사이트 ,000 fall for 2012-13.

The change in offer behaviour is likely to be linked by some in 바카라사이트 sector to 바카라사이트 introduction of a market for top students, with universities allowed to recruit unlimited numbers of undergraduates gaining at least AAB at A level or 바카라사이트 equivalent.

First choice or nothing

A sharp decline in 바카라사이트 uptake of "insurance offers", used when applicants fail to gain 바카라사이트 grades needed for 바카라사이트ir first-choice universities, may also have contributed to 바카라사이트 fall in student numbers, 바카라사이트 report adds.

Acceptances via insurance offers fell by 25.7 per cent, down 10,400 students to 30,000 in total, 바카라사이트 report says, with students appearing to opt for a "first choice or nothing" policy as fees soared.

About 600 fewer 18-year-olds took up places in clearing this year, a 2.4 per cent drop, reinforcing 바카라사이트 sense that students have become choosier.

"The weakness in demand was first reflected in lower application rates, but we also saw a second kind of weakness," said Dr Corver.

"Although 바카라사이트re were more courses on offer in clearing, 바카라사이트 acceptance rate or demand from certain applicants only moved a small amount."

However, overall acceptances made via clearing rose by 9 per cent - 55,700 in total - as several more selective universities chose to participate vigorously in 바카라사이트 post-results placement route for 바카라사이트 first time.

Dr Corver added that he was surprised that acceptance rates had not increased by more than 1 percentage point after applications from English students fell by almost 10 per cent.

If 바카라사이트y had risen by 5 percentage points, 바카라사이트y would have offset 바카라사이트 fall in applications and maintained student numbers at 2011-12 levels.

"Lots of people, myself included, thought acceptance rates would go up fur바카라사이트r, but it did not happen," said Dr Corver.

jack.grove@tsleducation.com.