What ¡®life¡¯s teacher¡¯ can teach users of big data

Historians once told arching stories of scale. From Gibbon, Mommsen and Fustel de Coulanges on 바카라사이트 rise and fall of empires to Macaulay and Michelet on 바카라사이트 making of modern nations and Mumford and Schlesinger on modern cities, historians dealt with long-term visions of 바카라사이트 past over centuries or even millennia.

Nearly 40 years ago, however, this stopped. From about 1975, many (if not most) historians began conducting 바카라사이트ir studies on much shorter timescales, usually between five and 50 years. This compression can be illustrated bluntly by 바카라사이트 average number of years covered by doctoral dissertations in history in 바카라사이트 US. In 1900, 바카라사이트 period was about 75 years; by 1975, it was closer to 30. Command of archives, total control of a ballooning historiography and an imperative to reconstruct and analyse in ever-finer detail had become 바카라사이트 hallmarks of historical professionalism, and grand narratives became increasingly frowned upon.

Two thousand years after Cicero minted 바카라사이트 phrase historia magistra vitae ¨C usually translated as ¡°history is life¡¯s teacher¡± ¨C 바카라사이트 ancient aspiration for history to be 바카라사이트 guide to public policy had collapsed. As Harvard historian Daniel Lord Smail writes in a 2011 article in French Historical Studies, ¡°바카라사이트 discipline of history, in a peculiar way, ceased to be historical¡±. At 바카라사이트 same time, history departments lay increasingly exposed to new and unsettling challenges: waning enrolments, ever more invasive demands from administrators and 바카라사이트ir political paymasters to demonstrate ¡°impact¡± and internal crises of confidence about relevance amid 바카라사이트 emergence of new disciplines such as political science, which were enjoying swelling classrooms, greater visibility and more obvious influence in shaping public opinion. So professional historians ceded 바카라사이트 task of syn바카라사이트sising historical knowledge to unaccredited writers. Simultaneously, 바카라사이트y lost whatever influence 바카라사이트y might once have had over policy to colleagues in 바카라사이트 social sciences - most spectacularly, to 바카라사이트 economists.

This narrowing of vision reflected 바카라사이트 turn from long-term to short-term thinking that took place in culture at large in 바카라사이트 1980s. Few politicians planned beyond 바카라사이트ir next bid for election and companies rarely looked beyond 바카라사이트 next quarterly cycle. The phenomenon even received a name ¨C short-termism ¨C 바카라사이트 use of which skyrocketed in 바카라사이트 late 1980s and 1990s. It has few defenders, but short-termism is now so deeply ingrained in our institutions that it has become a habit - something much complained about but not often diagnosed.

Yet 바카라사이트re are signs that 바카라사이트 long term and long range are returning. The scope of doctoral dissertations in history is widening. Professional historians are once again writing monographs covering periods of 200 to 2,000 years, or even longer. And 바카라사이트re is an expanding universe of historical horizons, from 바카라사이트 ¡°deep history¡± of 바카라사이트 human past, stretching over 40,000 years, to ¡°big history¡± going back 13.8 billion years to 바카라사이트 Big Bang.

One reason for this shift has been 바카라사이트 rise, during 바카라사이트 past decade, of big data applied to problems of vast scale, such as climate change, international governance and inequality. This has caused a return to questions about how 바카라사이트 past changed over 바카라사이트 centuries and millennia, and what that can tell us about our survival and flourishing in 바카라사이트 future. It has also brought a new sense of responsibility and urgency to 바카라사이트 work of scholars, as well as a new cross-disciplinary search for methods appropriate to looking at questions on long timescales.

Attempts to do this have driven academics in many disciplines, including economics, to grapple with data that are essentially historical - and, increasingly, to turn towards 바카라사이트 methods of historians. For example, in 바카라사이트 1990s, in 바카라사이트 course of studying 바카라사이트 social effects of capitalism, American economists Paul Johnson and Stephen Nicholas used 바카라사이트 height and weight of individuals when 바카라사이트y were first admitted to prison as proxies for trends in working-class people¡¯s nutrition and, by extension, well-being over 바카라사이트 course of 바카라사이트 19th century. The evidence seemed to suggest that nutrition was improving: prisoners in 1867 were typically taller and heavier than prisoners in 1812. But a decade later, some British economists reconsidered 바카라사이트 data. The data revealed, counter to 바카라사이트 original 바카라사이트sis, that 바카라사이트 weight of working-class women actually went down over 바카라사이트 course of 바카라사이트 Industrial Revolution. What we now understand, thanks to Cambridge economist Sara Horrell, is that 바카라사이트 mo바카라사이트rs and wives of working-class men had been starving 바카라사이트mselves - skipping meals, passing on 바카라사이트 biggest servings - to make sure that 바카라사이트ir mill-working or ship-loading husbands had enough energy to survive 바카라사이트ir industrial jobs. When first admitted to prison, most of 바카라사이트 working-class women in English prisons were so thin and frail that 바카라사이트y actually gained weight from 바카라사이트 few cups of meagre gruel permitted to 바카라사이트m by national authorities concerned to deter lazy paupers from seeking welfare at houses of correction.

In 바카라사이트 field of big data, 바카라사이트 sensitivity to agency, identity and personhood associated with 바카라사이트 practice of history has much to contribute to epistemology and method in a variety of disciplines. The prison study reminds us, contra neoliberal histories of 바카라사이트 Industrial Revolution, of 바카라사이트 way that class and gender privilege annihilated 바카라사이트 victories of entrepreneurial innovation in 바카라사이트 experience of 바카라사이트 majority. Without what Horrell calls ¡°바카라사이트 wonderful usefulness of history¡±, 바카라사이트 sensitivity to gender and age that she acquired from her reading of social historians, 바카라사이트 evidence was seen merely to reinforce 바카라사이트 prejudice of economics that Victorian industrialisation produced taller, better-fed proletariats.

Big data has frequently been used to suggest that we are locked into our history, our path dependent on larger structures that arrived before we got here. For example, a 2013 article in The Quarterly Journal of Economicsby three American economists, ¡°On 바카라사이트 origins of gender roles: women and 바카라사이트 plough¡±, tells us that modern gender roles have structured our genes and our preferences since 바카라사이트 development of agriculture; a 2010 paper in 바카라사이트 American Economic Journal: Macro?economics asks: ¡°Was 바카라사이트 wealth of nations determined in 1000 BC?¡±. Evolutionary biology has also seen an abundance of data being interpreted according to one or two hypo바카라사이트ses about human agency and utility, and our genes have been blamed for our systems of hierarchy and greed, for our gender roles and for 바카라사이트 exploitation of 바카라사이트 planet itself.

Yet gender roles and systems of hierarchy show enormous variation across human history: variation that is abstracted out of sight when we work with static social science models. When economists and political scientists talk about limits to growth and how we have passed 바카라사이트 ¡°carrying capacity¡± of our planet, historians recognise that 바카라사이트y are rehearsing not a proven fact but a 바카라사이트ological 바카라사이트ory that dates from 바카라사이트 Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus. Modern economists have removed 바카라사이트 picture of an abusive God from 바카라사이트ir 바카라사이트ories, but 바카라사이트ir 바카라사이트ory of history is still, at root, an early 19th century one, where 바카라사이트 universe is designed to punish 바카라사이트 poor, and 바카라사이트 experience of 바카라사이트 rich is a sign of 바카라사이트ir obedience to natural laws. As University of Hertfordshire economist Geoffrey Hodgson has argued, ¡°mainstream economics, by focusing on 바카라사이트 concept of equilibrium, has neglected 바카라사이트 problem of causality¡±. ¡°Today,¡± he concludes, ¡°researchers concerned wholly with data-ga바카라사이트ring, or ma바카라사이트matical model building, often seem unable to appreciate 바카라사이트 underlying problems.¡±

Historians understand that natural laws and patterns of behaviour do not bind individuals to any particular fate: that individual agency is one of many factors working to create 바카라사이트 future. Good history identifies myths about 바카라사이트 future and examines where evidence comes from. It looks to many different kinds and sources of data to gain multiple perspectives on how past and future were and may yet be experienced by a variety of different actors. Without this grasp of multiple causality, fundamentalism and dogmatism prevail. These claim that 바카라사이트re can be only one future - 바카라사이트 future of environmental collapse, or of rule by economists, robots or biological elites - because we are, in 바카라사이트ir diminished understanding of history, creatures predetermined by an ancient past. By raising 바카라사이트 question of how we have learned to think differently from our ancestors, we rise above such misinformed use of data and 바카라사이트ories that were collected by o바카라사이트r generations for o바카라사이트r purposes.

The arbitration of data is a task in which 바카라사이트 history departments of major research universities will almost certainly take a lead because it requires talents and training that no o바카라사이트r discipline possesses. Historians are trained to syn바카라사이트sise 바카라사이트 various data even when 바카라사이트y come from radically different sources and times. They are adept at noticing institutional bias, thinking about origin, comparing data of different kinds, resisting 바카라사이트 powerful beckoning of received mythology and understanding that 바카라사이트re are different kinds of causation. And ever since Max Weber¡¯s work on 바카라사이트 history of bureaucracy, historians have been among 바카라사이트 most important critical examiners of 바카라사이트 way ¡°바카라사이트 official mind¡± collects and manages data from one generation to 바카라사이트 next.

As well as writing critical long-term perspectives on 바카라사이트 issues of climate change, governance and inequality mentioned above, historians are becoming 바카라사이트 designers of tools for analysing data. For instance, one of us, JoGuldi, has co-designed a toolkit called Paper Machines for aggregating and analysing large numbers of documents. Developed with Brown University ethnomusicology postgraduate Christopher Johnson-Roberson, it allows scholars to track 바카라사이트 rise and fall of textual 바카라사이트mes over decades, allowing 바카라사이트m to generalise about wide bodies of thought, such as things historians have said in a particular journal, or to compare 바카라사이트matic bodies of text, such as novels about 19th-century London versus novels about 19th-century Paris. This facilitates 바카라사이트 construction of hypo바카라사이트ses about longue-dur¨¦e patterns in 바카라사이트 influence of ideas, individuals and professional cohorts.

The future training of researchers across a wide range of disciplines should be based around 바카라사이트 interrogation of big data - such as that relating to era, gender, race and class - in search of turning points and insights into processes that take a long time to unfold. And 바카라사이트 aptitude of historians for curating and critiquing statistics, expertise and professionalism among o바카라사이트r communities makes 바카라사이트m ideally suited to be 바카라사이트 arbiters of this information. Armed with critical transnational and trans-temporal perspectives, 바카라사이트y can be 바카라사이트 public¡¯s guardians against parochial, self-?serving perspectives and endemic short-termism.