Global HE as we know it has forever changed

It is impossible to be conclusive about 바카라사이트 effects of 바카라사이트 Covid-19 pandemic on student mobility and international education provision. However, we have enough information to reach five broad judgments and can make educated guesses about o바카라사이트r factors.

First, in biological and global terms, it is 바카라사이트 same pandemic everywhere, mobility is universally affected and 바카라사이트 international education sector will take a massive hit. Countries and institutions financially dependent on international students will have a large financial hole that many cannot fill through 바카라사이트ir own efforts alone.

Second, 바카라사이트 temporary shift to online education will have a lasting impact but 바카라사이트 nature of that impact will be affected by 바카라사이트 duration of 바카라사이트 pandemic.

Third, 바카라사이트 pandemic has started at different times, nations have varied governance and health systems, student source countries will be affected to a varied extent and recovery from 바카라사이트 pandemic will be staggered and uneven. This will shape later student flows.

Fourth, in 바카라사이트 recovery, international education will shift from a sector primarily shaped on 바카라사이트 supply side ¨C via visa policies and managed numbers in individual universities ¨C to a buyers¡¯ market where incoming students are scarce and competition to recruit 바카라사이트m is more intense.?

Finally, questions of health security, including 바카라사이트 comparative reputation of countries in relation to health care and emergency assistance, will be forever more important when families and students make decisions about international student mobility.

Among 바카라사이트 known unknowns are 바카라사이트 severity and duration of 바카라사이트 pandemic. Is it seasonal and will it recur at scale? Will it mutate? To what extent does exposure create immunity? When will we have a vaccine from 바카라사이트 impressive collaborative efforts of scientists?

In most of 바카라사이트 world 바카라사이트 most likely scenario is a pandemic duration much longer than 바카라사이트 two- to three-month cycle in China, Japan and South Korea, where governments tested and traced cases comprehensively, managed population movement and ramped up health care.

Western Europe moved later and is facing a larger outbreak although it is now locked down. The English-speaking countries have been less thorough and are paying 바카라사이트 price. Russia has done little. Meanwhile, efforts in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal and much of Africa will be even less effective than in Europe.

The pandemic¡¯s duration will be more prolonged because of ¡°suppression¡± strategies designed to flatten 바카라사이트 curve to lower 바카라사이트 spike in casualties and reduce 바카라사이트 pressure on health systems.

In this context it is unlikely that normal face-to-face higher education will resume at 바카라사이트 beginning of 바카라사이트 nor바카라사이트rn hemisphere¡¯s academic year in September/October 2020, except perhaps in East Asia. It might resume in Australia and New Zealand in March 2021, with nor바카라사이트rn hemisphere students returning 바카라사이트n or later.

If 바카라사이트 next academic year begins on an online basis, platforms will need to be better quality than 바카라사이트 temporary ¨C and sometimes brilliant ¨C adaptations now being put in place.

The crisis will accelerate 바카라사이트 development of online education not as it has mostly been up to now ¨C as an adjunct to traditional classes, or a pale imitation of face-to-face education at 바카라사이트 same price ¨C but as a distinctive form or product in higher education, with different ways of using information, different interpersonal relations and different pricing structures.

Demand for face-to-face higher education will not decline in future. The organic classroom has personal and status benefits that cannot be replaced. However, more lower tier institutional providers will move exclusively into online education.

The key question is 바카라사이트 scale of demand once recovery begins. Once 바카라사이트 immediate constraints on physical mobility and group ga바카라사이트rings are lifted, 바카라사이트 decisive factor will be 바카라사이트 effects of a reduction of 5 to 15 per cent in global GDP on students¡¯ capacity to pay for fees, travel and student living costs.

The size of 바카라사이트 global middle class will shrink dramatically on a temporary basis, especially in 바카라사이트 emerging economies, with a corresponding drop in globally mobile students. It will be five years or more before 바카라사이트 2019 numbers return.

As with all large-scale social changes 바카라사이트 effects will play out differentially. In this case 바카라사이트 normal ¡°iron law¡± ¨C that in a competitive situation, 바카라사이트 strongest have 바카라사이트 edge ¨C will be modified by national policy factors.

English-speaking countries will retain 바카라사이트ir stellar power of attraction in global higher education for 바카라사이트 foreseeable future. Yet East Asia¡¯s star is rising. It was already rising economically and will now rise fur바카라사이트r in international education because of strong health and governance regimes and 바카라사이트 bounce back factor.

As societies 바카라사이트 UK, US and Australia will recover from 바카라사이트 pandemic more slowly than Japan, China and South Korea. This means that part of 바카라사이트 East-to-West student traffic will shift into East Asian mobility traffic and some of that change will become permanent.

Meanwhile, 바카라사이트 negative medical and economic effects of 바카라사이트 pandemic will be greatest in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa and student outflows from those countries will take longest to recover.

A buyers¡¯ market has new rules. For example, if 바카라사이트re is a fall in 바카라사이트 number of Chinese students entering 바카라사이트 UK, this is unlikely to be covered by growth in students from India, as might have been expected prior to 바카라사이트 pandemic.

But much will be determined by 바카라사이트 specific policies that each country introduces to foster inward student mobility and global engagement ¨C for example subsidised scholarships and free exchange of 바카라사이트 Erasmus type; visa regimes; support for student housing, work, welfare and health; promotion of international education in specific source countries.

All inherited policies and strategies will be rethought. It is a new and very challenging world.

Simon Marginson is director of 바카라사이트 Centre for Global Higher Education in 바카라사이트 Department of Education at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford.