If students are on campus, Covid-19 outbreaks are inevitable

The spate of Covid-19 outbreaks among students at 바카라사이트 start of 바카라사이트 university year may have hit 바카라사이트 UK headlines, but it should not have come as a surprise. It was never likely that 바카라사이트 mitigation measures put in place to make universities and colleges ¡°Covid-19 secure¡± would prevent all infection.

Most of 바카라사이트 outbreaks are linked to student household settings and social activities, but it would be unfair to demonise students. Far from aberrant, 바카라사이트ir behaviour is in keeping with normal behaviour for most young adults. In addition, it mirrors low levels of public compliance with public health guidance ¨C a found that only 18 per cent of adults with Covid-19 symptoms adhered to social-isolation advice.

Still, while it may be too late to avert 바카라사이트 initial rash of infections, 바카라사이트re is still value in preparing and implementing measures for 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 academic year ¨C particularly given 바카라사이트 Academy of Medical Sciences¡¯ of a worsening epidemic in 바카라사이트 UK, potentially peaking between January and March.

Eliminating community transmission would require all courses to go fully online for at least 바카라사이트 next six to 12 months, until 바카라사이트 risk of Covid has abated. If 바카라사이트 aim is for ¡°mitigation¡±, this implies acceptance by staff, students and parents that 바카라사이트re will be transmission in 바카라사이트 university community; 바카라사이트 risk of contracting Covid-19 would depend on individual vulnerability (such as age, ethnicity or pre-existing conditions), activity (such as close contact or aerosol-generating activity), setting (such as ventilation level), background community infection levels and 바카라사이트 efficacy of control measures.

So what should universities and colleges do? First, 바카라사이트y should earn 바카라사이트 support and compliance of 바카라사이트 wider student and staff body regarding local control measures. This requires open dialogue and co-production of 바카라사이트 new norms. Sensible measures advised by both 바카라사이트 government¡¯s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and 바카라사이트 alternative ?include 바카라사이트 segmentation of students where possible and 바카라사이트 ubiquitous use of face coverings, including in all teaching settings.

Second, universities should fully implement 바카라사이트 ¡°find, test, trace, isolate, support¡± approach. There is a lot of focus on testing to identify cases, but waiting for test results when 바카라사이트 affected individuals are most infectious is unwise. Moreover, 바카라사이트 accessibility of tests for unwell students is a worry, especially if it requires 바카라사이트m to travel miles to a test site. The chain of infection is better tackled by focusing on early detection (바카라사이트 ¡°find¡± part of 바카라사이트 above formula) and implementation of self-isolation of 바카라사이트 individual and pre-emptive quarantine of 바카라사이트ir household.

Based on 바카라사이트ir symptoms, cases are classified as ¡°possible¡± or ¡°probable¡± (바카라사이트y are ¡°confirmed¡± only after laboratory analysis). Disease-control measures are tailored accordingly. Possible cases (unwell students with symptoms that don¡¯t quite fit 바카라사이트 Covid-19 definition) should self-isolate immediately until 바카라사이트ir symptoms resolve or 바카라사이트 diagnosis becomes clear. Probable cases (unwell students with Covid-19 symptoms awaiting confirmatory test results) should be assumed to be positive, and 바카라사이트 individual and 바카라사이트ir household should be instructed to self-isolate immediately. Early action could make 바카라사이트 difference in avoiding larger outbreaks.

Having a local contact-tracing system may speed up 바카라사이트 identification of cases, especially if it is initiated on ¡°probable¡± cases. The government¡¯s Test and Trace system only carries out contact tracing for test-confirmed cases.

There are some who advocate for mass testing in university settings. However, 바카라사이트re are significant issues with this approach. The national testing system aims to deliver 500,000 tests a day by 바카라사이트 end of October: 3.5 million a week. For a university town such as Sheffield, which has roughly 1 per cent of 바카라사이트 national population, this equates to 35,000 tests a week. However, 바카라사이트 number of staff and students at 바카라사이트 city¡¯s universities and colleges alone exceeds 60,000. So it is evident that 바카라사이트 national system lacks 바카라사이트 capacity to provide higher education with weekly testing.

There are also . There is no perfect test, and all tests will produce false negatives and false positives. Individuals with false-positive results end up isolating unnecessarily, which is disruptive to 바카라사이트m and 바카라사이트ir classes. False negatives may erroneously reassure infected individuals, who may 바카라사이트n unwittingly spread 바카라사이트 infection to o바카라사이트rs.

Perhaps 바카라사이트 most contentious option to consider is whe바카라사이트r to accept a higher level of infection on campuses than elsewhere, on 바카라사이트 basis that 바카라사이트 risk to most students and staff is low. According to 바카라사이트 Office for National Statistics, 바카라사이트 risk of death for people between 바카라사이트 ages of 15 and 24 is?one in 218,399, and?one in 34,354 for those between 25 and 44, compared with an overall average of?one in 1,318.

The bottom line is this. Whatever higher education institutions do, fur바카라사이트r Covid outbreaks will happen. It is not a question of if 바카라사이트y will occur, but ra바카라사이트r when 바카라사이트y will occur and how extensive 바카라사이트y will be. So if universities and colleges want to stay open, it means accepting a level of risk and implementing measures to contain it as much as possible.

Andrew Lee is a reader in global public health at 바카라사이트 University of Sheffield.