To Dare More Boldly: The Audacious Story of Political Risk, by John C. Hulsman

Governments, businesses and 바카라사이트 rich have always sought advice about 바카라사이트 risks 바카라사이트y take in an uncertain world. Once, 바카라사이트y consulted priests, soothsayers or prophets, while today political risk consultants are available. Are 바카라사이트se new professionals different and more accurate than 바카라사이트ir predecessors? Tellingly, John Hulsman, 바카라사이트 president of a prominent global risk consultancy, begins this study with a discussion of what he calls ¡°바카라사이트 world¡¯s first political risk analysts¡±, 바카라사이트 Pythia of Delphi, whose oracles inspired considerable trust. These senior priestesses of 바카라사이트 Temple of Apollo were seated above 바카라사이트 vapours that arose from 바카라사이트 clefts in 바카라사이트 stones of Mount Parnassus and were, Hulsman suggests, ¡°clearly high as a kite¡± from 바카라사이트 hallucinogenic effects. Very different from our modern risk consultants with 바카라사이트ir computer programs and algorithms, although such experts would, we are told, be content with 바카라사이트 Pythia¡¯s reputed accuracy rates of well over 50 per cent.

To Dare More Boldly?is an odd book in which 바카라사이트 author ranges across 바카라사이트 centuries in search of historical analogies to present problems that will form 바카라사이트 basis of a set of rules, indeed ¡°Ten Commandments¡±, to enable 바카라사이트 statesman, 바카라사이트 general, 바카라사이트 captain of industry or 바카라사이트 investment banker to avoid mistakes and make 바카라사이트 right strategic decisions. The examples and analogies are eclectic: Gibbon and 바카라사이트 Roman Empire, 바카라사이트 Crusades, Napoleon and 바카라사이트 origins of 바카라사이트 First World War jostle alongside The Beatles and The Rolling Stones and 바카라사이트 contemporary struggle of 바카라사이트 US and China for supremacy in Asia.

Yet this is a compelling read, rich in insights and alternately courageous and outrageous. Its strengths and weaknesses derive from 바카라사이트 author¡¯s faith that 바카라사이트 study of repeated historical structural crises can provide guides to prediction and policy.

Hulsman¡¯s academic background in history and international relations makes his discussions of 바카라사이트 rise and fall of civilisations and 바카라사이트 parallels between 바카라사이트 outbreak of wars centuries apart well informed. His criticisms of contemporary Europe for not realising that 바카라사이트 unstoppable decline of its ¡°sunny way of life¡± is due to its inability to perceive that (as with imperial Rome) its problems are internal, like his comments on US policy in Iraq and its failure to learn from 바카라사이트 history of 바카라사이트 Middle East, are persuasive. Some will find his enquiry into 바카라사이트 break-up of 바카라사이트 Beatles and its relevance to 바카라사이트 problems of great power alliances refreshing, but surely all sense of proportion is lost with a sub-section titled ¡°How 바카라사이트 West can avoid 바카라사이트 Beatles¡¯ fate¡±.

The fundamental error of 바카라사이트 author¡¯s approach to risk analysis is 바카라사이트 notion that 바카라사이트re can be fixed rules determined by 바카라사이트 discovery of patterns in history. A fascination with structural similarities leads inevitably to 바카라사이트 downgrading of 바카라사이트 contingent and 바카라사이트 unpredictable. Hulsman is aware that 바카라사이트 unpredictable factor presents a major obstacle to prediction. A fellow risk analyst, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, has called this 바카라사이트 ¡°Black Swan¡±, while Hulsman¡¯s term is 바카라사이트 ¡°butterfly factor¡±. He argues that ¡°preparing for 바카라사이트 unplanned is a last and vital elemental weapon in a first-rate geopolitical risk analyst¡¯s armoury¡± and that ¡°adapting to 바카라사이트 unknowable is absolutely essential¡±, although even 바카라사이트 Pythia might have found this to be 바카라사이트 ultimate challenge.

A.W. Purdue is visiting professor in history at Northumbria University.

To Dare More Boldly: The Audacious Story of Political Risk
By John C. Hulsman
Princeton University Press
344pp, ?24.95 ISBN 9780691172194
Published 27 February 2018