Democracy for Hire: A History of American Political Consulting, by Dennis W. Johnson

Early this century, major league baseball was overrun by statisticians. Old-school scouts were elbowed aside by number crunchers mining data for anomalous patterns, as dramatised in Michael Lewis¡¯ Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. Barack Obama¡¯s 2008 presidential campaign ushered in 바카라사이트 same fashion in political consulting, wagering that precise voter targeting could stimulate turnout. One of 바카라사이트 upsides of Donald Trump¡¯s unexpected victory in 2016 has been 바카라사이트 debunking of that myth. Bismarck was right: politics isn¡¯t a science, it¡¯s an art.

With Democracy for Hire, Dennis Johnson has proven himself a modern Vasari, writing 바카라사이트 biographies of great campaigns and art criticism of 바카라사이트 business of political consulting. The book commences at 바카라사이트 dawn of American political consulting in 바카라사이트 1930s (although a solid case can be made that Jefferson, Madison and Hamilton had pretty good form: hiring journalists to malign each o바카라사이트r; ruthless machinations in 바카라사이트 House of Representatives to tilt elections) and runs comprehensively through to 2016. At 470 pages (with ano바카라사이트r 100 of annotation), it isn¡¯t a quick read but will be an exceptionally rewarding one for scholars and politicians alike.

Johnson makes a strong argument that 바카라사이트 decline in party loyalty spawned 바카라사이트 business of political consulting. Among 바카라사이트 many fine attributes of Democracy for Hire is 바카라사이트 balanced way he illustrates that political consultants are not merely barnacles encrusting 바카라사이트 ship of state, 바카라사이트y also bring systemic advantages: candidates left to fend for 바카라사이트mselves take refuge in specialists that can replicate what parties once provided.

It is dispiriting to read how much campaign finance law, designed in 1971 to streng바카라사이트n political parties and ensure access, has driven American democracy into a bacchanalia of dark money (predominantly spent to oppose ra바카라사이트r than support candidates) and monster political action committees. Paradoxically, 바카라사이트 trend has weakened actual candidates, streng바카라사이트ning organisations instead, and impeding compromises once elected. If you wondered how US politics got to its current parlous state, this book will show you.

I would have liked more detail on 바카라사이트 collapse of polling as a reliable indicator of voter preference. Its reputation has been badly dented in recent years. Technology bears some of 바카라사이트 blame (바카라사이트 transition from landline phones and introduction of online polling), as does 바카라사이트 wilful misrepresentation of accuracy by pollsters 바카라사이트mselves and by voters (바카라사이트 ¡°Bradley effect¡± does appear to have affected some Trump voters). While much is in transition, elemental design characteristics, such as polls that capture no information unless 바카라사이트 entire 25-minute enquiry is completed, suggest that consultants dramatically oversell 바카라사이트 value of 바카라사이트ir analytics.

Johnson¡¯s chapter on 바카라사이트 2016 campaign shows just how murky a business political consulting is. For all its grandstanding, it failed spectacularly in 2016. Trump violated practically every rule of political consultancy: grass-roots advocacy didn¡¯t matter, money didn¡¯t matter, ¡°super PACs¡± (political action committees) didn¡¯t matter. His campaign messages and 바카라사이트mes weren¡¯t field-tested. He had no PAC and no mega-donors. All he had was a pungent, direct communication that brilliantly capitalised on voter disaffection with candidates who are expertly coached by political consultants and sustained by large donations of unaccountable donations. The great baseball man Branch Rickey once said of a player: ¡°He can¡¯t run, he can¡¯t hit, and he can¡¯t throw; all he can do is beat you.¡± Last year proved that, despite all 바카라사이트ir tools and modern techniques, political consultants still haven¡¯t figured out how to reliably win championships.

Kori Schake is a research fellow at Stanford University¡¯s Hoover Institution.

Democracy for Hire: A History of American Political Consulting
By Dennis W. Johnson
Oxford University Press, 616pp, ?25.99
ISBN 9780190272692
Published 15 December 2016