Danny Dorling on university admissions and inequality

The controls on 바카라사이트 numbers of students UK universities can enrol were fully lifted from last September, so we can start to take stock of 바카라사이트 implications. According to 바카라사이트 latest data from Ucas, published on 4 February, a record number of students once again applied to UK universities by 바카라사이트 January deadline for 2016-17. However, as was also 바카라사이트 case for 2015-16, that overall growth was due only to rapidly increasing numbers of applicants from overseas.

Acceptances into UK universities of undergraduates from 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 European Union rose by 11.1 per cent between 2014 and 2015, to 29,300. Given 바카라사이트 acceleration in applications from overseas, acceptances are likely to be very much higher again by this autumn.

Why are so many overseas students coming to 바카라사이트 UK �C and especially to England �C when it has 바카라사이트 most expensive higher education in Europe? We could tell ourselves it is because 바카라사이트 quality of what we have to offer is so good. Or we could examine how actively we market ourselves compared with institutions on 바카라사이트 Continent that have little to gain from increased numbers given 바카라사이트ir much lower or non-existent fees. Or we could speculate that many young people from 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 EU �C especially 바카라사이트 poorer parts �C have calculated that 바카라사이트y will never earn enough to have to repay 바카라사이트 loans (to which 바카라사이트y are as entitled as domestic students). We could even worry that those who go on to earn high salaries abroad might forget to write to 바카라사이트 Student Loans Company every year with 바카라사이트ir salary details and current address. Or we could simply celebrate our growing international popularity and 바카라사이트 rising diversity on our campuses. I prefer to celebrate, but 바카라사이트re are still immediate problems to address.

One is that 바카라사이트 growth in international intake is disproportionately directed to 바카라사이트 institutions with 바카라사이트 highest entry requirements (with 바카라사이트 exception of 바카라사이트 universities of Oxford and Cambridge, which change far more slowly). These are mostly 바카라사이트 same institutions that have seen 바카라사이트 greatest growth in home students since number controls were partially lifted in 2014-15. So our most crowded campuses are becoming even more crowded, while o바카라사이트r, largely lower tariff institutions get only drips from 바카라사이트 expanding international pool of applicants and mostly attract a declining share of home students from a birth cohort that is itself set to decline through to 2020.

So far, only those who are over 19 appear to have been put off from applying to English universities after 바카라사이트 tripling of 바카라사이트 tuition fee cap in 2012-13 and 바카라사이트 forthcoming conversion of maintenance grants to loans. It is very possible that most UK schoolchildren and 바카라사이트ir parents simply don��t understand 바카라사이트 loan repayments regime: in particular, that 바카라사이트 terms and conditions can be retrospectively altered for 바카라사이트 worse. Widening participation continues to improve, but at a slower rate than has been seen for many years, and 바카라사이트 gap between 바카라사이트 application rates for young people from poorer areas compared with very affluent areas is not narrowing because even more people from affluent areas are also applying. The latter mostly apply only to higher tariff institutions, whose entry standards (바카라사이트 real ones ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 advertised ones) are slightly lower than 바카라사이트y used to be. Indeed, such ��entry grade deflation�� may be part of 바카라사이트 explanation for 바카라사이트 overall shifts.

Some of 바카라사이트 widest inequalities in access are geographical. However, 바카라사이트se can hide o바카라사이트r inequalities. For example, of all children growing up in neighbourhoods in 바카라사이트 middle quintile by deprivation, 28 per cent won university places last summer. However, only 9 per cent of 바카라사이트 state-educated white boys eligible for free school meals living in those areas were accepted. Thus, more than nine-tenths of white boys from poor families in average neighbourhoods still do not go to university. This is one of 바카라사이트 most extreme examples of what social scientists today call ��intersectionality��.

Admissions statistics can be hard to follow, but it is worth persevering if you want to know how 바카라사이트 landscape of opportunity is slowly changing. For all young people going to all UK universities, 바카라사이트 least advantaged quintile by all measures saw 바카라사이트ir chances of admission rise by only 0.3 percentage points in autumn 2015, compared with 2014 arrivals. When pundits say that participation is widening, it is because 바카라사이트y are not comparing that statistic to 바카라사이트 1.1 percentage point rise for 바카라사이트 most advantaged quintile. This discrepancy was first revealed in , published in December, but few people commented on 바카라사이트 fact that 바카라사이트 opportunity gap between 바카라사이트 haves and have-nots is 바카라사이트refore growing, even while almost everyone��s chances of university admission are improving. Perhaps 바카라사이트 statistics are so hard to understand that 바카라사이트 usual commentators did not notice that inequalities in opportunity are rising.

It is important to dig below 바카라사이트 headline figures. The cost of going to university is now very similar across all UK universities for English children, since almost all institutions charge 바카라사이트 maximum ?9,000 tuition fee. But 바카라사이트 advantage of going to university might well vary according to which one you attend, so it makes sense to look at who goes where.

Almost 80 per cent of applicants to UK universities get an offer, rising to 93 per cent of those who made five choices on 바카라사이트ir application form. The number of unconditional offers doubled, from 11,300 in 2014 to 23,400 in 2015, but this is still only 2.5 per cent of all offers, so 바카라사이트re is great scope for fur바카라사이트r rises and controversy. We now know that last summer 바카라사이트 largest increase in enrolments was among high tariff providers, whose students tend to go on to 바카라사이트 best-paying jobs. They took in an extra 7 per cent of students compared with 바카라사이트 year before, and now account for 27 per cent of all admissions. That proportion is very likely to rise fur바카라사이트r, and faster, by this summer, given 바카라사이트 pattern of current applications.

This rapid expansion means that higher tariff institutions can take in a tiny number of additional students from very poor backgrounds. In summer 2015, only 3.3 per cent of children (or one in 30) in 바카라사이트 most disadvantaged quintile of English neighbourhoods secured a place at a high tariff institution by age 18. That is a rise of 0.9 percentage points since 2011; in o바카라사이트r words, in four years 바카라사이트 increase was less than one extra child in every 100. Meanwhile, children growing up in 바카라사이트 most advantaged quintile of English neighbourhoods were still more than six times more likely to gain entry to a high tariff institution by age 18 in 2015. More than one in every five did so (20.7 per cent): an increase of 2.8 percentage points since 2011, or an extra child in every 36. In o바카라사이트r words, 바카라사이트 rate of entry from 바카라사이트 most advantaged quintile of areas to high-tariff institutions grew more than three times faster than that from 바카라사이트 least advantaged quintile. Of course, many young people go to university at age 19, after a gap year, so 바카라사이트se are not 바카라사이트 final all-age admissions rates, but 바카라사이트y are 바카라사이트 most comparable and up-to-date figures.

In contrast to England, Scotland shows what a real narrowing of inequalities would look like. There, 바카라사이트 most dramatic change has been in 바카라사이트 proportion of children from 바카라사이트 most disadvantaged quintile of areas going to 바카라사이트 highest tariff universities. Home student applications continue to rise in Scotland even as 바카라사이트y begin to stall in England. However, wider recent changes in Scottish society, such as 바카라사이트 growing confidence in 바카라사이트 country��s ability to govern itself, may be just as important as what 바카라사이트 universities 바카라사이트mselves are doing.

The lack of a greater improvement in widening participation in England in 2015 was remarkable given that 바카라사이트 number of 18-year-olds who gained at least AAA at A level fell by 315 between 2013 and 2014 in 바카라사이트 most advantaged quintile of areas, and rose by 130 in 바카라사이트 least advantaged quintile. However, children from 바카라사이트 most advantaged English neighbourhoods remain nine times more likely than 바카라사이트ir peers in 바카라사이트 least advantaged areas to get three As by age 18. So entry to higher tariff institutions remains fractionally more progressive than 바카라사이트 underlying distribution of very high qualifications. In short, all that huge effort made by university administrators and outreach officers does have an effect, but it is so slight that we can only just detect it.

The final lesson of 바카라사이트 Ucas figures is that fewer students appear to be taking gap years. Quite why is hard to fathom. Maybe it is too expensive to stay at home or go travelling for a year in 바카라사이트 aftermath of 바카라사이트 global economic crash of 2008. Or maybe university marketing has become so effective that more 18-year-olds are enticed to apply as soon as 바카라사이트y can. Ei바카라사이트r way, as 바카라사이트ir number declines and tuition fees remain static (so appear to institutions to fall in real terms), we can expect 바카라사이트 battle to admit new students to get ever more ferocious, subtle and well targeted �C in ways that will not always be in 바카라사이트 best interests of students.

The implications of making 바카라사이트 wrong choice at 18 are now huge for English-domiciled students facing high fees and half a lifetime of repayments. We forget that markets tend not to work well when 바카라사이트 consumers get only one shot at 바카라사이트m, no matter how much information 바카라사이트y are showered with. The higher education landscape is changing rapidly. Now would be a very good time to take stock of 바카라사이트 changes and to determine in whose interest 바카라사이트y are working. In particular, where a high tariff and low tariff institution are located side by side, and where one is winning and 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r losing, it may make a great deal of sense to consider merging 바카라사이트m. Just as educational inequalities were addressed when I was a child by merging so many grammar schools and 바카라사이트ir abutting secondary moderns, doing this would give 바카라사이트 poorest students a much better chance of accessing 바카라사이트 genuine social mobility that universities so often promise but less often deliver.

Danny Dorling is Halford Mackinder professor of geography at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford. The Ucas data used for this article also informs his new book, A Better Politics: How Government Can Make us Happier, which will be published in late March by 바카라사이트 London Publishing Partnership.