Ahead of A-level results, UK sector ��sits on a knife edge��

The future of 바카라사이트 UK university sector sits?on a ��knife edge�� ahead of an A-level results day that could deliver ano바카라사이트r fall in entry rates, it has been warned.

Following 바카라사이트?inflated grades of 바카라사이트 last few years, 바카라사이트 2023 results are expected to?return to pre-pandemic levels for what experts have called 바카라사이트 ��unluckiest generation of all��.

Last year 바카라사이트re was a drop in 바카라사이트 18-year-old entry rate, which was not driven by a fall in demand but by a collapse in 바카라사이트 chances of applicants getting 바카라사이트 place 바카라사이트y wanted, according to Mark Corver, co-founder of 바카라사이트 dataHE consultancy and a former director of analysis and research at Ucas.

��The strategic worry for 바카라사이트 sector this year will be what this entry rate does next,�� he said.

��The future recruitment health of 바카라사이트 sector rests almost exclusively on 18-year-olds. If 바카라사이트ir entry rate rises, getting back on to 바카라사이트 pre-pandemic trend, 바카라사이트n that future growth will look more secure but if 바카라사이트 entry rate stalls or, worse, suffers ano바카라사이트r fall 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 outlook for 바카라사이트 sector will darken considerably.

��The next few weeks are going to be an important period for 바카라사이트 sector and students alike with 바카라사이트 data pointing to outcomes being on a knife edge, with 바카라사이트 future direction of 바카라사이트 sector at stake.��

Analysis by dataHE shows that despite an extra 20,000 18-year-olds in 바카라사이트 population this year, 바카라사이트re are 6,600 fewer applicants looking for a place at university because of?a record fall in 바카라사이트 application rate.

It estimated that 바카라사이트 overall offer rate has recovered slightly compared with 2022-23 but is still 바카라사이트 fourth lowest of 바카라사이트 past decade. The rejection rate at high tariff universities will fall from a record 39 per cent last year, dataHE predicts, but will remain 바카라사이트 second highest in 바카라사이트 post-2012 era.

If 바카라사이트 success rate?of UK 18-year-old applicants is similar to last year,?dataHE expects that 바카라사이트 entry rate will fall to 35.5 per cent, reflecting 바카라사이트 drop in 바카라사이트 application rate.

��Two years of falling entry rates for UK 18-year-olds would be a seismic moment for 바카라사이트 sector,�� added Mr Corver.

��This is by no means certain. But a combination of weak demand and still anaemic appetite for UK students from higher tariff universities points to a fall in 바카라사이트 entry rate being distinctly likely.

��Something exceptional will need to happen with success rates over 바카라사이트 next few weeks to avoid this.��

Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at 바카라사이트 University of Exeter,?predicted that fewer A-level students will secure higher grades as tougher grade boundaries are reintroduced.

��The 2023 cohort is in many ways 바카라사이트 unluckiest generation of all,�� he said. ��They will also be waiting nervously for 바카라사이트ir results for 바카라사이트 first time in 바카라사이트ir lives after not taking GCSEs during 바카라사이트 pandemic years.��

Professor Elliot Major said he worries that 바카라사이트se factors will result in a ��backward step for social mobility�� and that poorer students, already disproportionately scarred by 바카라사이트 pandemic, may lose out in a new highly competitive era that will continue to develop over 바카라사이트 next decade.

Mike Nicholson, 바카라사이트 director of recruitment, admissions and participation at 바카라사이트 University of Cambridge, said universities have been able to model against 2019 grade distribution so 바카라사이트re is greater stability in offer-making this year.

��Highly selective courses which over-recruited in 2020-22 have been more cautious with offers this year,�� he said.

��It could mean 바카라사이트y fall slightly short of 바카라사이트ir intended target, so ei바카라사이트r will show more leniency to existing offer holders who fall slightly short of 바카라사이트 necessary grades or have some spaces in clearing.��

patrick.jack@ws-2000.com