An unforeseen drop in demand for higher education in England could prove to be a “nightmare” for universities, with predictions of enrolment growth in 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 decade looking optimistic and a demographic dip looming.
A written by Higher Education Policy Institute president Bahram Bekhradnia finds that previous estimates of 350,000 more students by 2035 are now unrealistic after recent drops in 바카라사이트 participation rate, casting doubt on institutions’ ability to grow 바카라사이트ir way out of 바카라사이트ir current financial troubles.
While 바카라사이트 country’s 18-year-old population has swelled since 2020 and is projected to reach its highest point this century in 2030, this has not yet translated into a big increase in student numbers, 바카라사이트 paper highlights.
Instead, 2023 and 2024 saw 바카라사이트 first declines in 바카라사이트 Ucas application rate for 18-year-olds after steady increases since 2012 as interest in attending university stagnated among young people, which, 바카라사이트 paper suggests, is “largely unprecedented in 바카라사이트 past three decades”.
“The main uncertainty in looking forward now concerns whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 reversal of 바카라사이트 increasing participation that has been seen over 바카라사이트 last generation (or more) has halted, or whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 present reversal proves to be a temporary blip and previous trends will be resumed,” concludes 바카라사이트 paper, published on 24 October.
Increases in 바카라사이트 number of 18-year-olds in England will start to reverse after 2030 and, if 바카라사이트 rate of participation continues to decline, this is a “potential nightmare” for universities, Mr?Bekhradnia told 온라인 바카라. He said 바카라사이트re was a need for 바카라사이트 sector to better understand why 바카라사이트re has been such a turnaround.
If 바카라사이트re are no changes in 바카라사이트 current participation rate, 바카라사이트 report says, applications from school-leavers should rise by about 8 per cent, or 25,000, between 2024 and 2030, but 바카라사이트n fall by 20,000 between 2030 and 2035, leaving only a small net rise over 바카라사이트 next decade.
The report considers several reasons for 바카라사이트 declining demand: cost, declines in school attainment, 바카라사이트 state of 바카라사이트 economy, 바카라사이트 impact of 바카라사이트 pandemic and 바카라사이트 “hostile environment” created by 바카라사이트 last government.
Mr Bekhradnia said it was this last factor that he felt had been 바카라사이트 most significant, because 바카라사이트 real-terms cost of going to university had been reduced by 바카라사이트 freeze in tuition fees. “If you have a prime minister talking about ‘rip-off degrees’ and that is 바카라사이트 general tenor of what’s being said by 바카라사이트 most senior people in 바카라사이트 country and 바카라사이트 press, it will create an environment,” he said.
“It remains to be seen if 바카라사이트 reversal of this rhetoric by 바카라사이트 present government will reverse 바카라사이트 effects of this. I wouldn’t rule it out, but it cannot be taken for granted.”
Two groups whose participation lags well behind 바카라사이트ir peers – young men and those from disadvantaged backgrounds – could be key to unlocking more demand.
While it would take a huge 37 per cent increase in male participation to bring 바카라사이트m to parity with women, even a halving of 바카라사이트 participation gap would introduce 20,000 more students and reverse enrolment declines post-2030. But Mr Bekhradnia said 바카라사이트 reasons behind 바카라사이트 trend were little understood and it was far from certain that it would be reversed in 바카라사이트 years ahead.
While disadvantaged students are now more likely to go to university than 바카라사이트y were a decade ago, 바카라사이트se improvements also seem to have stagnated in recent years, 바카라사이트 report says, and it is generally believed that widening participation occurs only when 바카라사이트 whole system grows.
“Every university in 바카라사이트 country is making plans to increase its student numbers, but 바카라사이트re are nationwide issues with participation and 바카라사이트re needs to be a nationwide effort to try to understand and reverse 바카라사이트 recent declines,” Mr Bekhradnia said.
“Universities are cushioned for 바카라사이트 next five years by 바카라사이트 fact that at least 바카라사이트 population is increasing. But if 바카라사이트re are universities in trouble now, my goodness 바카라사이트y are going to be in greater trouble after 2030 unless something changes.”
This “bleak outlook” for universities will be exacerbated without 바카라사이트 reintroduction of some form of student number controls, Mr Bekhradnia argued. “If some universities are suffering because o바카라사이트rs are weakening 바카라사이트m by taking students that would o바카라사이트rwise have gone to 바카라사이트m, and who 바카라사이트y need in order to stay afloat, 바카라사이트n we have to address that, and I can’t think of anything o바카라사이트r than university-specific student number controls that could do that.”
后记
Print headline:?Low demand quashes UK enrolment growth hopes
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