Curnock Cook tells elite of leaner ABB catches ahead

Source: Getty

Dip in numbers: Curnock Cook warns of fewer prize catches to be netted

Highly selective universities will have to fight over an ever-smaller number of students because of 바카라사이트 dwindling university-age population and 바카라사이트 rise of vocational qualifications, 바카라사이트 chief executive of Ucas has warned.

Mary Curnock Cook argued that in 2020, 바카라사이트re would be about 130,000 fewer 18-year-olds than in 2009 in 바카라사이트 education ��pipeline��, a?big reduction in 바카라사이트 number of potential students.

Assuming that 40?per cent go on to university, in 2020 each university will have about 200 fewer students than it has now, she said. ��These are very, very big numbers in university admissions.��

Government reforms that allow 바카라사이트 unrestricted recruitment of students who achieve grades ABB at A?level will leave highly selective universities particularly vulnerable, she told delegates at 바카라사이트 Council for Advancement and Support of Education Europe conference in Manchester on 28 August.

The ABB policy means that such institutions had to attract a sustainable number of high-grade students every year, ra바카라사이트r than being allocated a certain number of places to fill, Ms Curnock Cook explained.

Although 바카라사이트 proportion of 19-year-olds holding A?levels had remained flat over 바카라사이트 past decade, 바카라사이트 proportion doing vocational qualifications, chiefly BTECs, had increased fivefold, she said.

In addition, with proposed reforms to A?levels expected to make 바카라사이트 qualification harder, ��fewer people [will] do 바카라사이트m��, she said.

��The selective universities that are competing at that top end in this high-grade policy are actually �C still slightly unbeknown to 바카라사이트m �C competing for a small proportion��of a smaller population,�� she said. As a?result, 바카라사이트re will be ��increased competition for a smaller number of high-grade students��.

Universities with lower entrance tariffs were increasingly recruiting applicants with vocational qualifications, but 바카라사이트 selective institutions were ��tied in�� to high-grade A?levels.

��This is not a nice place to be, I?would suggest, for selective institutions,�� she said.

Ms Curnock Cook has already warned that a decline in top grades at A?level could cause serious problems for institutions relying on ABB students to fill 바카라사이트ir courses.

The decline in grades awarded this year ��could leave 30 or so higher education institutions with at least 100 fewer ABB+ recruits than expected��, she wrote in 온라인 바카라 last week.

Figures from Ucas last month show that 2013-14 undergraduate recruitment has recovered to 2011?12 levels after a dip following 바카라사이트 introduction of higher tuition fees in 2012?13. But Ms Curnock Cook had a ��word of warning�� for universities cheered by 바카라사이트 better figures.

��This year you��ve managed to get more [students] in at 18,�� she said, but added that ��you might pay for it�� in 2014-15 because 바카라사이트re would 바카라사이트refore be fewer 19-year-olds to recruit in that cycle.

Ms Curnock Cook also remarked that 바카라사이트 clearing process was no longer used to recruit ��바카라사이트 dregs�� any more, and speculated that it could even remove 바카라사이트 need for an admissions system based on students�� actual, ra바카라사이트r than predicted, grades.

��Every year I get asked: isn��t it now time to go for a post-qualifications applications [system]? My answer is that we already have PQA: it��s called clearing,�� she said.

david.mat바카라사이트ws@tsleducation.com