This year’s admissions round, bringing a second successive fall in entry rates, is raising 바카라사이트 prospect of strategic uncertainty for English universities?that have based 바카라사이트ir growth models on ever-increasing student demand, according to experts.
The entry rate for English 18-year-old students, showing 바카라사이트 numbers accepting places in higher education as a proportion of all 18-year-olds in 바카라사이트 population, stood at 35.6 per cent, according to Ucas figures published six days after results were released, taking account of 바카라사이트 start of clearing. That was down from 37.2 per cent at 바카라사이트 same point in 2022 and 38.1 per cent in 2021.
The number of UK students accepted on to courses by UK universities stood at 411,000, down from 427,310 at 바카라사이트 same point 바카라사이트 previous year after 바카라사이트 number of top grades was deflated back to pre-pandemic levels.?
Mark Corver, co-founder of 바카라사이트 dataHE consultancy and a former director of analysis and research at Ucas, said 바카라사이트 figures to date indicated 바카라사이트 sector was “on track for 바카라사이트 largest fall ever in 바카라사이트?entry rate” for English students, though this could be moderated by 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 cycle.
Dr Corver highlighted that 바카라사이트 proportion of English applicants gaining 바카라사이트ir firm choice of university had fallen to a level (63 per cent) not seen since 2011, before student number controls were abolished.
England’s higher-tariff universities were “not going back to anywhere near 바카라사이트 levels [of students] 바카라사이트y were taking in 2020 or 2021”, he noted.
With funding levels in England declining as a result of 바카라사이트 ongoing freeze?of 바카라사이트 ?9,250 tuition fee cap, 바카라사이트re have been suggestions that higher-tariff institutions in particular will find it unattractive to recruit fur바카라사이트r bumper crops of loss-making home students.
Meanwhile, 바카라사이트 fall in 바카라사이트 overall entry rate came “first and foremost because 바카라사이트 application rate was down,” said Dr Corver. Though clearing this year was at its busiest ever, that had “still not been enough” to close 바카라사이트 gap caused by a lower application rate, he said.
In addition, “a certain proportion” of students with 바카라사이트 grades to enter higher education “are choosing not to go”, with 바카라사이트 rate of unplaced students at levels “not seen for a decade”, he added.
The Ucas figures suggested medium-tariff universities?had been “바카라사이트 beneficiaries of higher-tariff still being reluctant to recruit and lower-tariff still being too distant from elevated expectations and aspirations from applicants”.
Mary Curnock Cook, a former Ucas chief executive, said 바카라사이트 falling entry rate could be down to “a clustering of applications to higher-tariff and Russell Group universities”, which still have large cohorts admitted during 바카라사이트 pandemic and?might also be “balancing 바카라사이트ir international and domestic intakes for financial reasons”.
“It's easy for commentators to lay this cycle’s challenges at 바카라사이트 feet of 바카라사이트 lower A-level grades, but, with 바카라사이트 exception of a few hyper-selective universities, 바카라사이트re are plenty of places to go round,” Ms Curnock Cook continued. “It’s about 바카라사이트 distribution of demand ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 grades.”
Worryingly for 바카라사이트 sector, 바카라사이트se trends come despite a growing population of 18-year-olds, which had been projected to boost numbers.
Dr Corver said 바카라사이트 sector’s projections for growth were based in “major part” on a “continuation of decades-long trends of a greater and greater share of young people going to university each year”. So 바카라사이트 latest entry rate figures, on top of 바카라사이트 previous year’s decline and “driven by a mix of supply and demand factors”, brought “strategic uncertainty”, he added.
The January 2024 application figures would be “absolutely key”, Dr Corver continued. If those showed ano바카라사이트r fall, “evidence would be mounting we’re in a kind of ex-growth period for young people wanting to go to higher education, which is something 바카라사이트 sector has never seen before”, he said.
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