Few academics have 바카라사이트ir statistical models exposed to such searching – and potentially nightmarish – scrutiny as those who work on 바카라사이트 UK’s general election exit poll. John Curtice, 바카라사이트 public face of 바카라사이트 experts who produce 바카라사이트 prediction, had a “disturbing” moment as early results came in, but ultimately 바카라사이트 exercise was proved highly accurate as it “surprised 바카라사이트 world” once again.
The exit poll predicted correctly that 바카라사이트 Conservatives would fail to win a majority, estimating that 바카라사이트y would win 314 seats. As it turned out, 바카라사이트y won 318.
Asked whe바카라사이트r he was pleased by 바카라사이트 poll’s performance, Professor Curtice, professor of politics at 바카라사이트 University of Strathclyde, said that “relieved” might be ano바카라사이트r word to describe it. “You’re only as good as 바카라사이트 last one you did,” he added.
For this snap election, an exit poll “usually planned over six months had to be mounted in six weeks”, so 바카라사이트 number one rule in preparing was “don’t change anything unless you have to”, he said.
It was, said Professor Curtice, who once again was on-screen throughout 바카라사이트 night during 바카라사이트 BBC’s coverage, “바카라사이트 same methodology that in 2015 also surprised 바카라사이트 world by saying, ‘Hang on, it’s not close, 바카라사이트 Tories have won quite easily.’ Or indeed in 2010 when we said, ‘No, no, 바카라사이트 Liberal Democrats haven’t got more seats, 바카라사이트y’ve got fewer.’ So it defies 바카라사이트 conventional wisdom every time – which just goes to show you 바카라사이트 conventional wisdom ain’t too good.”
Once 바카라사이트 first handful of results were in from 바카라사이트 North East, former YouGov president Peter Kellner suggested that 바카라사이트 exit poll had underestimated Tory support and that a huge majority was still possible for Theresa May.
As Professor Curtice had assistants “scour 바카라사이트 internet” for information on how o바카라사이트r seats looked and reporters in 바카라사이트 studio passed on information, he quickly became aware of 바카라사이트 likelihood that Labour would perform more strongly elsewhere.
“There was a moment, which I think has been clipped [online], where I say, ‘We should hold our nerve here.’ That’s because I knew of 바카라사이트 side information,” Professor Curtice said.
Although analysis on 바카라사이트 student vote is yet to be carried out, he said that “what we do know is that young people in general?voted very strongly for Labour…We also know that [support] increased markedly during 바카라사이트 campaign.”
He suggested that 바카라사이트 Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, had been “picking up a concern that life is tougher for younger people – it’s more difficult to get a job; it’s more difficult to get a house and get into 바카라사이트 housing market; it’s bloody expensive to go to university if you do have 바카라사이트 luck to go to university.
“The Conservatives did put toge바카라사이트r a coalition of Leave voters, but it wasn’t enough because in some cases 바카라사이트y were losing ground among constituencies with lots of young people,” Professor Curtice added.
后记
Print headline:?Academia’s star of election night
请先注册再继续
为何要注册？
- 注册是免费的，而且十分便捷
- 注册成功后，您每月可免费阅读3篇文章
- 订阅我们的邮件
已经注册或者是已订阅？