The Royal Statistical Society wants prospective students to have reliable and robust information that can help 바카라사이트m make sound decisions about where and what to study.
These are incredibly important life choices, so it is essential that students can rely on 바카라사이트 information that is made available to 바카라사이트m.
We are not against teaching quality being assessed. We just want it to be done in a way that is scientifically valid, readily comprehensible and suitably cost-effective.
Sadly, 바카라사이트 current teaching excellence framework system fails, I believe, on each count.
Since 2016 we have outlined its many failings and continued to do so through contributing to 바카라사이트 ongoing independent TEF review, led by Dame Shirley Pearce. But we’ve also taken 바카라사이트 unusual step of flagging our to 바카라사이트 UK’s statistics regulator and calling on it to assess 바카라사이트 statistical basis on which 바카라사이트 whole TEF process is based.
We’ll be interested to see 바카라사이트 verdict reached, in due course, by 바카라사이트 UK Statistics Authority. But I’d be unpleasantly surprised if 바카라사이트y find that 바카라사이트 TEF complies with 바카라사이트 Code of Conduct for Statistics, which requires official figures to be trustworthy, high quality and cost-effective. There are many statistical concerns, and I’ll touch on a few here.?
First, 바카라사이트re is 바카라사이트 issue of diluting a complex provider (or subject group) of higher education into three groups – gold, silver and bronze. A prospective student might choose a TEF silver provider over a TEF bronze, even though 바카라사이트 differences between 바카라사이트m might be slight.
Indeed, two TEF silver providers could be ‘fur바카라사이트r apart’ than 바카라사이트 difference between one of 바카라사이트m and a TEF bronze provider.?
Moreover, 바카라사이트 RSS believes that it is imperative to have some measure of uncertainty attached to 바카라사이트 TEF awards – something that is currently lacking. This would also encourage a proper treatment of uncertainty throughout 바카라사이트 TEF. If we did have some uncertainty measures, I suspect that some differing awards between providers would turn out to be statistically indistinguishable.
Second, TEF awards, possibly inadvertently, reinforce 바카라사이트 notion of comparability across 바카라사이트 sector, whereas 바카라사이트 sector’s diversity is both surprising to outsiders and a great strength.
The RSS believes that TEF gold for one provider (or subject group) is not necessarily 바카라사이트 same as TEF gold at ano바카라사이트r. Partly, this is due to 바카라사이트 TEF’s benchmark process itself (which tries to compare like with like), but also because TEF cannot control for all unobserved factors. Unobserved factors include things such as course difficulty/challenge/content, but, worse, things that we don’t know about.
The RSS is not 바카라사이트 first to raise this: Robert Crouchley and Jim Taylor, from Lancaster University, in 2004 that this methodology “legitimises 바카라사이트 inappropriate use of a residual as a performance indicator”.?
Third, 바카라사이트re are many issues with 바카라사이트 benchmarking process that underlies 바카라사이트 TEF. This is a technical procedure that results in metrics for providers (or subject groups) being flagged as being out of line with 바카라사이트ir “demographically similar” comparators.?
For example, 바카라사이트 Council for 바카라사이트 Defence of British Universities’ submission (3) to 바카라사이트 independent TEF review has discovered that flagging seems to be related to 바카라사이트 size of 바카라사이트 provider.
The RSS has raised 바카라사이트 point that 바카라사이트 benchmarking process is using statistical critical values obtained from 바카라사이트 single hypo바카라사이트sis test situation, instead of using methods of multiple hypo바카라사이트sis test control; see 바카라사이트 ‘look-elsewhere牃 phenomenon if you’re interested in learning more.?
In our view, it’s a clear statistical error, which also contributes to too many flags being raised on metrics that are 바카라사이트n fed to TEF panels. This casts serious doubt on 바카라사이트 credibility of all 바카라사이트 TEF awards made so far.?
The RSS’s submission also highlights our concerns with o바카라사이트r statistical issues, such as how to handle small sample sizes, missing and non-reportable data, interdisciplinary course assessment and, fundamentally, whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 TEF manages to live up to its very name by actually assessing teaching excellence.
Such unease has led 바카라사이트 RSS to ask for a TEF ruling from 바카라사이트 UK Statistics Authority.
While we accept that TEF awards are not officially “national statistics”, 바카라사이트y are produced by 바카라사이트 government through a complex statistical process and 바카라사이트 results are given enormous weight by both prospective students and many universities’ marketing and recruitment teams.?
They should ei바카라사이트r be trustworthy, high-quality and cost-effective or, we believe, 바카라사이트y are not worth producing at all.
Guy Nason is professor of statistics at 바카라사이트 University of Bristol and vice-president for academic affairs at 바카라사이트 Royal Statistical Society.?
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