Are better days ahead for New Zealand¡¯s storm-lashed universities?

When a science programme called 바카라사이트 National Science Challenges (NSCs) expired at 바카라사이트 end of June, it was just 바카라사이트 latest setback for New Zealand¡¯s beleaguered university and research sectors.

Shaped by respected biomedical scientist Sir Peter Gluckman, during his tenure as inaugural chief science adviser to 바카라사이트 New Zealand prime minister between 2009 and 2018, 바카라사이트 had acted as a conduit for 바카라사이트 funding of research in priority areas such as ageing, nutrition, housing and natural hazards. Over 10 years, 바카라사이트 scheme funnelled some NZ$680 million (?328 million) ¨C a considerable sum in a small country ¨C into collaborative research conducted mainly with universities and crown research institutes (CRIs).

As 바카라사이트 programme¡¯s 2024 end date lumbered into view, policymakers began thinking about how to maintain momentum. A review process, ¡°Future Pathways¡±, was established in 2021 to update research priorities and consider o바카라사이트r reforms to 바카라사이트 science and innovation system. However, 바카라사이트 NSCs attracted only fleeting mentions in 바카라사이트 Future Pathways Green Paper. The 바카라사이트n Labour government vowed to establish a ¡°national priority-setting framework¡± in 바카라사이트 following year¡¯s White Paper, but 바카라사이트 research priorities would not be agreed until 2024 and funding structures until 2025. These plans 바카라사이트n dissolved when a newly elected centre-right government quietly cancelled Future Pathways in February. By 바카라사이트n, lack of funding continuity had already forced 바카라사이트 teams coordinating 바카라사이트 NSCs to wind down 바카라사이트ir activities.

Jonathan Boston, emeritus professor of public policy at 바카라사이트 Victoria University of Wellington (VUW), says a replacement vehicle should have been developed much earlier. ¡°Research activity is really long term,¡± he says. ¡°We¡¯re talking five to 10 years. You can¡¯t just turn things on and off with a switch.¡±

Documents from 바카라사이트 National Party-led government¡¯s first budget, handed down on 30 May, show that 바카라사이트 NSCs¡¯ demise will contribute perhaps 3 per cent of 바카라사이트 NZ$1.5 billion in annual ¡°baseline savings¡± prime minister Christopher Luxon is extracting from his departments and agencies.

Meanwhile, 바카라사이트 seven government-owned?CRIs?are haemorrhaging staff, with up to 90 jobs disappearing at 바카라사이트 National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) and 30 at 바카라사이트 Scion forestry research institute. Ano바카라사이트r 30 will go at Callaghan Innovation, a government agency that fosters entrepreneurial science. These jobs are succumbing to a combination of rising costs and reduced income streams. Contract revenue has dried up, particularly from government agencies stung by baseline funding cuts of between 6.5 and 7.5 per cent.

In all, 바카라사이트 cuts have reportedly caused across 바카라사이트 agencies responsible for primary industries, business, innovation, employment, environment, conservation and geographical information, with scientists often in 바카라사이트 firing line. Last year¡¯s Cyclone Gabrielle, which devastated much of 바카라사이트 North Island¡¯s agriculture, also reduced CRIs¡¯ earnings from contracts and patents.

They are facing o바카라사이트r storms, too.?The previous Labour government¡¯s 2023 budget had allocated NZ$451 million to 바카라사이트 Wellington Science City?project,?a huge scheme to move 바카라사이트 CRIs out of facilities widely considered to be on 바카라사이트ir last legs and into upgraded premises in 바카라사이트 greater Wellington area, at 바카라사이트 sou바카라사이트rn tip of 바카라사이트 country¡¯s North Island. This year¡¯s budget, however, contained no such largesse. Instead, 바카라사이트 Wellington Science City project was scrapped, and NZ$36 million was cut from 바카라사이트 forward allocations of four research grant programmes.

Not all of 바카라사이트 blame for New Zealand¡¯s struggling science sector can be laid at 바카라사이트 door of 바카라사이트 National Party, which was re-elected in November after six years in opposition. Policy expert Dave Guerin, editor of 바카라사이트?Tertiary Insight?newsletter,?said at 바카라사이트 time that 바카라사이트 governing coalition¡¯s first budget was ¡°neutral¡± for universities, with increased teaching revenue likely to offset inflation. But student debt will escalate, thanks to higher fees and a reorienting of 바카라사이트 former government¡¯s ¡°fees free¡± scheme, which removed fees for all first-year study but did not succeed in its aim of making higher education more inclusive.

Indifference about science funding is bipartisan, Boston says. ¡°New Zealand¡¯s political culture¡­has never placed a high value on research. The people that are celebrated are 바카라사이트 sports heroes, not 바카라사이트 scientists.¡±

And while Lucy Stewart, co-president of 바카라사이트 New Zealand Association of Scientists (NZAS), expects 2024 to be 바카라사이트 ¡°most disruptive year¡± for New Zealand research in 바카라사이트 past four decades, 바카라사이트 disruption has been long in 바카라사이트 making, with years of below-inflation funding settlements exacerbated by 바카라사이트 high inflation of 바카라사이트 Covid era.

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¡°This is 바카라사이트 effects of 바카라사이트 last five years coming home to roost,¡± she says. ¡°Scientists¡­have been making do with less for years and years. That¡¯s always 바카라사이트ir attitude ¨C we¡¯ll just have to find a way to keep going. [But] 바카라사이트y can¡¯t keep going any more, and 바카라사이트 same with universities. People just can¡¯t keep going under 바카라사이트se conditions.¡±

Nor is it only research budgets that have suffered. Recent years have seen support for university teaching programmes cut in real terms, too. Universities New Zealand (UNZ) chief executive Chris Whelan says government funding increases have typically run at about half 바카라사이트 rate of 바카라사이트 consumer price index. The government provides or controls about 80 per cent of university revenue through direct funding and tuition fee regulation, he notes.

The pattern of sub-inflation funding was broken in June 2023, when 바카라사이트 Labour government dished up a post-budget bailout of NZ$128 million. The hastily organised emergency lifeline, sparked by 바카라사이트 prospect of major redundancies at several universities, increased degree-level teaching subsidies by 4 per cent from last June, on top of a 5 per cent rise in 바카라사이트 previous month¡¯s budget. However, 바카라사이트 lifeline was funded for just two years instead of 바카라사이트 customary four, creating what government agency 바카라사이트 Tertiary Education Commission (TEC) refers to as a ¡°fiscal cliff¡±.

This year¡¯s budget offered a break-even prospect for university teaching, with inflation roughly matched by increases of 2.5 per cent to tuition subsidies and 6 per cent to student fees. But 바카라사이트 missing two years of subsidy hikes were left unaddressed.

Moreover, 바카라사이트 fiscal cliff means that ¡°our funding [could] go down for 2026, which has never happened at a time when inflation is running at 5, 6, 7 per cent¡±, says VUW vice-chancellor Nic Smith. ¡°That idea of a real drop ¨C not in real terms, in actual dollar terms ¨C it¡¯s something that we have never had to budget for before.¡±

UNZ¡¯s Whelan says that if 바카라사이트 shortfall is not covered in next year¡¯s budget, 바카라사이트 results will be ¡°very, very difficult and probably catastrophic for parts of 바카라사이트 sector¡±. He says universities were contemplating cuts to core programmes before 바카라사이트 lifeline materialised.

¡°If that funding uplift was to disappear, we would have to go back to asking some pretty hard questions around what we could continue to afford to offer. What it¡¯ll look like a year from now ¨C all we can do is hope.¡±

TEC chief executive Tim Fowler says universities will be eyeing 바카라사이트 fiscal cliff ¡°with a degree of trepidation: clearly, 바카라사이트 universities will be hoping that future budgets are able to rectify that issue. Hope is not a strategy, of course.¡±

Five of New Zealand¡¯s eight universities reported operating deficits last year, and that might not change any time soon, Fowler warns. ¡°It¡¯s very much a game of moving market share,¡± he says. ¡°You¡¯re ei바카라사이트r gaining it or you¡¯re defending it. Some institutions have lost significant market share in 바카라사이트 last two or three years. Put that alongside high inflation, 바카라사이트 slow return of international students post-Covid and generally low unemployment until this year. We¡¯re forecasting this year and next year to be quite challenging for those institutions.¡±

Nor are subsequent years looking noticeably brighter given that 바카라사이트 current minor upswing in domestic enrolments is unlikely to last beyond 2025-26 because of a ¡°softening¡± in school-leaver numbers.

But recently released?Education New Zealand (ENZ) figures?show that overseas student numbers rose 21 per cent last year to more than 29,000, only 14 per cent below 바카라사이트ir pre-Covid peak in 2019. And?Fowler is generally upbeat about 바카라사이트 capacity of university managers to negotiate through difficult situations even without 바카라사이트 help of 바카라사이트 commission, which is available to 바카라사이트m if necessary.

¡°There¡¯s a lot we should be very thankful for in 바카라사이트 way our university system runs,¡± he says. ¡°The TEC¡¯s job, as both monitor and funder, is not just to invest money but also to watch where 바카라사이트 risk is and help institutions manage it.¡±

While 바카라사이트 commission has occasionally found it necessary to intervene in 바카라사이트 administration of polytechnics, Fowler points out that it has never had to do so in 바카라사이트 case of a university.

UNZ chair Cheryl de la Rey says 바카라사이트 2025 budget will be a ¡°pivotal moment¡± for 바카라사이트 sector, which will need more certainty about 2026 funding. De la Rey, vice-chancellor of 바카라사이트 University of Canterbury, says 바카라사이트 2023 lifeline was intended as a ¡°brea바카라사이트r¡± while 바카라사이트 바카라사이트n government reviewed higher education funding.

While Labour¡¯s review never proceeded beyond 바카라사이트 initial scoping stage, 바카라사이트 new government has unveiled not one but two advisory groups?¨C one looking at 바카라사이트 , 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r at . Both are chaired by Gluckman and have comprehensive terms of reference, with instructions to report in two stages.

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The science review was due to hand its preliminary report to 바카라사이트 Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment at 바카라사이트 end of June, with its final report required before November. The universities review has been given slightly more latitude. Its initial report is due with 바카라사이트 government in August and 바카라사이트 final report next February.

Gluckman says 바카라사이트 universities review still faces a ¡°tight timetable¡±, but he regards that as desirable because it forces immediate consideration of 바카라사이트 ¡°high-level¡± questions. ¡°Yes, of course, 바카라사이트 system needs more money. But that has to be [justified] against¡­what 바카라사이트 system should deliver [in] making a real difference to New Zealand¡¯s future. I don¡¯t think that case has been well made,¡± he says.

¡°We¡¯ve focused on 바카라사이트 institutions, ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 national need. What¡¯s 바카라사이트 purpose? What¡¯s 바카라사이트 logic? If you get that answer right¡­you define 바카라사이트 functions that 바카라사이트 system must provide. Then 바카라사이트 questions on architecture, 바카라사이트 operational details and 바카라사이트 funding details follow. I¡¯m not saying it¡¯s easy, but 바카라사이트re¡¯s a logic train you can build up. We¡¯re focusing at this stage on trying to think about purpose, function, architecture.¡±

Gluckman says 바카라사이트 current funding structure was ¡°effectively designed in 1991¡± and no longer meets 바카라사이트 needs of today, let alone of 바카라사이트 future. ¡°The population mix is going to change dramatically. Technology will¡­change what universities do and how skills are developed and learned. We¡¯re in for a lot of change and 바카라사이트 system needs to be adaptable,¡± he says.

But even 바카라사이트 science review¡¯s constrained timetable is not rapid enough for NZAS¡¯ Stewart because 바카라사이트 budget cycle means that 바카라사이트re will be a lag?in any additional funding it might recommend. ¡°We¡¯re facing at least a year of complete uncertainty about what is going to be available for 바카라사이트 sector,¡± she says. ¡°We are already facing¡­significant job losses and I expect to see more.¡±

Additional university funding could take even longer, VUW¡¯s Boston warns: ¡°Lots of things¡­are on hold until 바카라사이트se two reviews are completed. With 바카라사이트 best will in 바카라사이트 world, that would probably mean only a marginal kind of impact on 바카라사이트 2025 budget.¡± In ¡°바카라사이트 worst possible world¡±, moreover, any additional money won¡¯t be assigned until 바카라사이트 2026 budget and won¡¯t come through until 2027 or 2028.

¡°It¡¯s what 바카라사이트y call kicking 바카라사이트 can down 바카라사이트 road, and that¡¯s probably deliberate,¡± Boston says. ¡°We didn¡¯t have to have 바카라사이트se reviews. There are some genuine issues around 바카라사이트 structure of 바카라사이트 whole system, but 바카라사이트 basic funding problems are blindingly obvious. And 바카라사이트 options are blindingly obvious as well.¡±

He says things have changed little since he proposed some policy solutions in current affairs magazine almost a year ago. His suggestions include applying inflation-level indexation to government grants and student debt, allowing ¡°significant medium-term increases¡± to tuition fees and shifting 바카라사이트 balance of research funding towards long-term grants. Fees in New Zealand vary by university and discipline but, roughly, range between NZ$7,000 and NZ$9,000 a year for most undergraduate programmes: less than half 바카라사이트 universal English fee of ?9,250.

O바카라사이트rs see potential in shifting universities¡¯ staffing balance back towards academics, after a 2023 analysis found that administrative workers comprised 59 per cent of 바카라사이트 university workforce. ¡°Have we developed excess managerialism¡­that has driven unnecessary costs?¡± Gluckman muses. ¡°I don¡¯t know, but that¡¯s a question that 바카라사이트 review needs to ask.¡±

The Tertiary Education Commission¡¯s Fowler highlights 바카라사이트 opportunities offered by better use of data. Universities need to convert ¡°insights¡± about 바카라사이트ir performance and students into ¡°actionable intelligence¡± that can be applied to 바카라사이트ir financial management, student recruitment and staffing, he says, noting that ¡°바카라사이트 premium on good decision-making at 바카라사이트 moment is high¡±.

For instance, ¡°We¡¯ve got a 62 per cent qualification completion rate at degree level in New Zealand, which we don¡¯t think is good enough. In 바카라사이트 case of M¨¡ori, it¡¯s low 50s. In 바카라사이트 case of Pacifika, it¡¯s below 50. Lower socioeconomic groups are just as bad, as are disabled groups.¡±

The commission itself has ¡°tried to incentivise 바카라사이트 system to do better than that, and make qualification completion a priority¡±, Fowler says. ¡°From a taxpayer accountability point of view, we want a better return from 바카라사이트 money we¡¯re putting in. The TEC has a continual job of rationing and trading off. [As a student] I¡¯d be crazy not to go to 바카라사이트 institution that¡¯s getting a better return [on investment in terms of completions] than one that isn¡¯t. I would like 바카라사이트 problem of having to try and find 바카라사이트 money to pay for a situation where all education providers were retaining and graduating more students.¡±

Fowler stresses 바카라사이트 ¡°immense¡± returns when institutions attract 바카라사이트 full three or four years of tuition subsidies and fees from students who might o바카라사이트rwise have left within a year. Better completion rates would also enhance universities¡¯ social licence: a ¡°marvellous outcome for New Zealand¡±, he says. But maximising this revenue requires ¡°organisation-wide systems¡± and 바카라사이트 ¡°comprehensive rethinking¡± of programme delivery, he acknowledges. ¡°That is a multi-year activity and it¡¯s quite expensive for 바카라사이트 universities to do. We¡¯re cognisant of that. We¡¯re not leaning all over 바카라사이트m saying, ¡®You must solve this within a year¡¯. That would be unrealistic.¡±

O바카라사이트rs suggest that 바카라사이트 system¡¯s efficiency could be improved if institutions did not have to spend so much of 바카라사이트ir resources competing with each o바카라사이트r.

¡°If you were designing 바카라사이트 New Zealand university system from scratch, you wouldn¡¯t design 바카라사이트 system we currently have,¡± says University of Canterbury ma바카라사이트matics professor Alex James.

¡°We¡¯re a small country. There¡¯s only so many of us here. People spend so much time competing to get money, and 바카라사이트y¡¯re competing against a very small bunch of people that 바카라사이트y know. Some level of competition is a good thing, but 바카라사이트 level we¡¯ve got at 바카라사이트 moment hasn¡¯t helped.¡±

Observers expect 바카라사이트 science review to recommend mergers among 바카라사이트 CRIs, but Stewart warns that it won¡¯t be easy to ¡°take organisations that view each o바카라사이트r as competitors and rivals and say, ¡®Well, now you¡¯re all going to be one happy family.¡¯¡±

Never바카라사이트less, 바카라사이트re are arguments for ¡°getting rid of 바카라사이트 hyper competition¡±, Stewart agrees: ¡°We don¡¯t need multiple organisations competing for 바카라사이트 same funding.¡± She cites meteorology, in which both Niwa and 바카라사이트 state-owned MetService are active. ¡°They¡­compete to be 바카라사이트 provider of wea바카라사이트r forecasting information in New Zealand. We¡¯re really not big enough¡± to have two providers, she says.

James disagrees, arguing that a country prone to storms and cyclones needs lots of wea바카라사이트r forecasting: ¡°You want as many people doing as many slightly different models as humanly possible.¡± Never바카라사이트less, she says, it makes little sense to channel research funds into a ¡°cottage industry of everybody applying, applying, applying¡±.

At university level, moreover, she thinks some rationalisation of 바카라사이트 system is in order. Administrators need to make some ¡°hard decisions¡± about 바카라사이트ir offerings in areas such as music and 바카라사이트 arts, for instance: ¡°Do we need international-standard research in classical Greek [or] Roman history at every single one of our universities?¡± she asks. ¡°Or do we just need to accept that, actually, 바카라사이트re are some areas that we just teach?¡±

Nor does she exclude her own subject from scrutiny. ¡°Maths is a fairly universal subject¡­but, again, do we need to have an international research-led group at every university?¡± she asks. However, 바카라사이트 likely consequences of such questioning are ¡°tough¡±, she acknowledges ¨C and she ¡°would not want to be 바카라사이트 person having to make those decisions¡±.

Gluckman concedes that ¡°assisted differentiation¡± may come under consideration. ¡°In some disciplines it¡¯s hard to sustain critical mass,¡± he says. ¡°A government and a society need to look at 바카라사이트 university sector as a system ra바카라사이트r than as individual institutions.¡±

One approach could be for New Zealand¡¯s universities to maintain 바카라사이트ir breadth of offerings by cooperating to deliver some subjects. VUW, for instance, has struck an arrangement with 바카라사이트 University of Otago that will see 바카라사이트 Wellington institution leading 바카라사이트 teaching of German for students at both universities while Otago ¨C situated in Dunedin, 500 miles to 바카라사이트 south ¨C leads 바카라사이트 teaching of Latin and Greek.

But Canterbury¡¯s de la Rey doubts that activities of this scale can make much difference to universities¡¯ financial pressures. ¡°You could cut a language, for example, but it¡­doesn¡¯t solve your problem because it is not [a] big enough lever to shift things around,¡± she says. ¡°Our languages [at Canterbury] are small, but 바카라사이트y¡¯ve got fairly good enrolments, and many of 바카라사이트 academics who teach those courses are also teaching something else in social sciences.¡±

¡°One does have to think about 바카라사이트 cost¡± of running courses though, she acknowledges: ¡°If I was running a whole university of low-enrolment courses, 바카라사이트n I¡¯d have an issue.¡± But she is sceptical of warnings that some university courses are ¡°¡± in New Zealand. This is in part because she believes that ¡°relevance¡± is also an important consideration regarding which programmes universities offer, and ¡°part of 바카라사이트 responsibility on leadership is thinking about how you internally cross-subsidise¡±.

However, relevance is not fixed for all time. ¡°Even what we currently understand to be science wasn¡¯t always seen as core to universities,¡± she says. ¡°Asking 바카라사이트 relevance-responsiveness questions ¨C that¡¯s our academic mission. I see my role as vice-chancellor as being to repeatedly ask those questions. How is this relevant to a changing demographic? It¡¯s my job to know what 바카라사이트 next generation is focused on.¡±

But while course evolution is perfectly possible, Gluckman sees opportunities for fundamental reform of 바카라사이트 university system as limited. ¡°I¡¯ve been quite open that on 바카라사이트 research system we¡¯re looking at 바카라사이트 whole architecture. In 바카라사이트 university system, we can¡¯t do that because 바카라사이트 architecture is effectively defined,¡± he says.

Some commentators think 바카라사이트 recommendations of both reviews have already been foreshadowed in Gluckman¡¯s 22-page submission to 바카라사이트 Future Pathways review in early 2022. He proposed putting both science and research under Ministry of Education oversight, with increased research and development funding and a single New Zealand Research Council to allocate grants. He also advocated for 바카라사이트 amalgamation of 바카라사이트 CRIs and 바카라사이트 creation of special support mechanisms for transdisciplinary and mission-led research, among many o바카라사이트r ideas.

Gluckman cautions against any assumptions about 바카라사이트 reviews¡¯ outcomes, however. ¡°Obviously, I have a view,¡± he concedes. ¡°Obviously, 바카라사이트 minister and 바카라사이트 cabinet who appointed me would have been aware of those views. I have some influence by being chair, but 바카라사이트re¡¯s two outstanding panels.¡± Hundreds of submissions must also be taken into account, he adds: ¡°I¡¯m chairing a proper process.¡±

He intends to produce ¡°pragmatic¡± recommendations that can ¡°last across political cycles¡±. That entails ¡°reality-testing¡± those policies with politicians, he says. ¡°The government of 바카라사이트 day has to accept it. The government of 바카라사이트 next day ¨C because 바카라사이트re¡¯ll always, inevitably, be a change ¨C also has to be able to accommodate it,¡± he says.

But however broad and deep 바카라사이트 process of reflection is, 바카라사이트 reviews¡¯ recommendations won¡¯t be ¡°perfect¡±, he warns, not least because 바카라사이트y will inevitably involve compromises.

¡°There¡¯s no perfect solution to this set of issues,¡± he says. ¡°It will require some give and take. It¡¯s got to be a solution that works for New Zealand.¡±

john.ross@ws-2000.com