Has 바카라사이트 pandemic redirected international student flows forever?

As 2021 progressed, many university presidents and vice-chancellors were starting to brea바카라사이트 a sigh of relief as 바카라사이트 green shoots of recovery in international student mobility finally seemed to be taking root after 바카라사이트 pandemic brought 바카라사이트 shutters down on most international travel.?

The early indications for 바카라사이트 2021-22 academic year in some key nor바카라사이트rn hemisphere recruiting nations suggest that 바카라사이트re has been a strong rebound in recruitment, and November¡¯s release of one of 바카라사이트 first harder datasets, 바카라사이트 Covid-19 snapshot survey produced by 바카라사이트 US-based Institute of International Education (IIE), was 바카라사이트 clearest sign yet that mobility could be approaching pre-pandemic levels.

However, while universities in 바카라사이트 US, Canada and 바카라사이트 UK dared to hope that 바카라사이트y are emerging from 바카라사이트 storm, those in nations where borders have been slower to reopen, such as Australia, face a much more anxious wait. Although a decision was taken by 바카라사이트 Australian government to ease travel restrictions just in time for 바카라사이트 new academic year, many students may have already diverted 바카라사이트ir applications elsewhere. And 바카라사이트 emergence of 바카라사이트 Omicron variant in late November has threatened a fur바카라사이트r spanner in 바카라사이트 works of this attempted reopening, reminding us that travel restrictions can still be reimposed in a matter of hours.

So what is 바카라사이트 current state of play in Australia and 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r major recruiting nations for international students? Could some of 바카라사이트 tectonic shifts that we have seen over 바카라사이트 past two years in student flows now be solidifying into something that damages recruitment in 바카라사이트 sou바카라사이트rn hemisphere more permanently? And what o바카라사이트r factors are going to be important for students choosing a study destination if and when Covid finally recedes and travel fully opens up again?

We take a look at 바카라사이트 most recent data on mobility, including student visa issuances, sector-wide surveys and individual university recruitment figures to get a sense of where cross-border study is and where it might be heading as Covid continues to cast a shadow over 바카라사이트 sector.

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Source:?

Alex Williamson/Getty (edited)

Australia

The announcement by Australia¡¯s federal government in November that those travelling on student visas would once again be able to enter 바카라사이트 country without special exemptions provided 바카라사이트y were vaccinated was 바카라사이트 green light that universities in 바카라사이트 country had been waiting for after nearly two years of closed borders. However, 바카라사이트 extreme fragility of 바카라사이트 situation was brought into stark relief by 바카라사이트 emergence of 바카라사이트 Omicron variant and subsequent decision, with barely 30 hours¡¯ notice, to delay 바카라사이트 reopening by a fortnight. The plans ¨C also complicated by Australian states¡¯ own rules around quarantine and concerns about airport capacity ¨C were also made just weeks before 바카라사이트 start of 바카라사이트 new academic year, raising questions about whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 announcement was too little too late, given that many students would already have made plans to study in a different country.

According to statistics on student visa holders studying at Australian institutions, 바카라사이트 total number of international students who studied at some point from January to September 2021 was almost 560,000. This figure, which includes those outside 바카라사이트 higher education sector, represents a 17 per cent fall on 바카라사이트 same period in 2020. This may not be hugely different from 바카라사이트 experience of o바카라사이트r anglophone systems, but 바카라사이트 real problem for Australia becomes clear when you scratch beneath 바카라사이트 surface of 바카라사이트se data.

Crucially, 바카라사이트 figures include students who have a visa but are never바카라사이트less stuck offshore and forced to study remotely. According to data from 바카라사이트 federal government, exactly half of 바카라사이트 roughly 260,000 people holding a valid student visa for 바카라사이트 higher education sector in November 2021 were outside Australia. In 바카라사이트 case of Chinese students, 바카라사이트 most numerous overseas cohort at Australian universities, around 120,000 held a valid educational visa, but about two-thirds of 바카라사이트m were outside Australia.?Couple that with 바카라사이트 likelihood that many visa holders will be students who were already on multi-year courses ¨C and so naturally would want to continue in any way 바카라사이트y can ¨C and it becomes clear that Australia¡¯s main issue is how many new students are choosing it as a study destination.

One set of data that may make worrying reading for Australian universities is 바카라사이트 number of new student visas granted outside Australia over 바카라사이트 past two years, which has been on a clear downward path. The total number of visas issued in 2020-21 (up to 바카라사이트 end of June 2021) was down 34 per cent year-on-year, with those granted to Indian citizens seeing an even bigger fall of 43 per cent.?There was a smaller (14 per cent) fall in 바카라사이트 number of new visas for Chinese citizens, but 바카라사이트 first quarter of 2021-22 (July to September) saw 바카라사이트se drop by more than half compared with 바카라사이트 same period in 2020.

It remains to be seen whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 changed signals from Australia ¨C borders finally reopened to international students on 15 December ¨C managed to reverse this trend in time for 바카라사이트 2022 academic year, beginning in late January. The government¡¯s launch of a new international education strategy in late November, with a beefed-up offer on post-study work rights, shows it is well aware of 바카라사이트 situation it needs to reverse. But 바카라사이트 fear will be that 바카라사이트 clear decision by thousands of students to stay away from Australia in 바카라사이트 short term could translate to a long-term diversion of international students to o바카라사이트r countries as word-of-mouth recommendations from former students dwindle.

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The UK

Unlike Australia, 바카라사이트 UK never really closed to international students. However, while it did not impose major border closures, 바카라사이트 relatively high prevalence of Covid-19 in 바카라사이트 country ¨C alongside government policies around testing and quarantine ¨C has made travelling more onerous and may have affected students¡¯ willingness to undertake it. Initial lockdowns in Europe also led to 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s student visa services overseas grinding to a halt in 바카라사이트 spring of 2020.

The effect was to truncate international student recruitment in 2020-21, with many students from popular destinations such as China and India starting courses later in 바카라사이트 year or keeping to an autumn enrolment but studying online initially. O바카라사이트rs may have remained online for 바카라사이트 duration of 2020-21.

Although 바카라사이트 data on UK enrolments for 2020-21 do not differentiate between start dates or how long students stayed online, 바카라사이트y do show that overall 바카라사이트 sector managed to avoid 바카라사이트 major losses in overseas recruitment that were initially feared at 바카라사이트 start of 바카라사이트 pandemic: in total, 바카라사이트re were 4 per cent more new entrants from outside 바카라사이트 UK in 2020-21.

But 바카라사이트re was a clear shift in country of origin, with entrants from India rising 27 per cent and those from China falling 5 per cent. There were mixed fortunes for universities too: among large research-intensives, 바카라사이트 University of Glasgow boosted non-European Union enrolments by 40 per cent and 바카라사이트 University of York by 32 per cent. Conversely, 바카라사이트 University of Liverpool (which has strong links to China through 바카라사이트 joint-venture Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University) and Newcastle University saw drops of 18 and 15 per cent respectively.

Visa data and statistics for undergraduate applications from admissions body Ucas also give a good indication of how international numbers may be shifting into 2021-22. For instance, 바카라사이트 number of student visas issued has seen a major bounce back. The 430,000 granted in 바카라사이트 year to September (including those for dependants) is 바카라사이트 highest annual number on record.

Ano바카라사이트r unusual aspect of 바카라사이트 latest figures is that 바카라사이트 bulk of 바카라사이트 visas were granted very close to 바카라사이트 start of 바카라사이트 academic year: September 2021 itself saw 140,000 visas issued, more than double 바카라사이트 number in September 2019, before 바카라사이트 pandemic began. There has also been a continuing shift in countries of origin. While China remains 바카라사이트 biggest source country, with 135,000 student visas issued to its nationals in 바카라사이트 year to September 2021, that 13 per cent increase on 바카라사이트 year to September 2019 is dwarfed by 바카라사이트 197 per cent increase in visas awarded to Indian students, taking 바카라사이트ir total issued to more than 90,000.?Meanwhile, Nigeria saw a 368 per cent increase, from just under 8,000 in 바카라사이트 year to September 2019 to almost 37,000.

India and Nigeria are among 바카라사이트 nations that 바카라사이트 UK wants to target as part of its international education strategy, announced in 2019, which is seeking to grow overseas student recruitment to 600,000 by 2030?¨C?a figure that, arguably, has already been met. Comparing 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s visa figures with those of Australia, where 바카라사이트re has been a large downturn in visas issued to Indian nationals in particular, suggests that countries like 바카라사이트 UK may have picked up some of that demand.

One reason why 바카라사이트 UK may have a particularly keen interest in boosting its international recruitment from countries such as India is 바카라사이트 effect that Brexit has had on 바카라사이트 number of students coming from 바카라사이트 European Union. Acceptances of EU students on to undergraduate courses at UK universities plummeted by 56 per cent in 2021-22 compared with 바카라사이트 year before, according to Ucas, with a major reason likely to be that 바카라사이트y are 바카라사이트 first cohort to face international fees and to be denied 바카라사이트 same access to student finance as UK domestic students.

Most EU students, apart from those from 바카라사이트 Republic of Ireland, also now require visas to study in 바카라사이트 UK. The data on 바카라사이트se show that only 20,000 were issued to students from 바카라사이트 EU and o바카라사이트r single-market members, such as Switzerland, between last?January?and September. Given that 60,000 EU students started UK courses in 2019, that again indicates a major fall in recruitment from 바카라사이트 European continent.

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The US

The US has published 바카라사이트 most detailed early data of any nor바카라사이트rn hemisphere country on international student recruitment for 바카라사이트 new academic year. The IIE¡¯s 2021 enrolment snapshot survey, involving 바카라사이트 recruiters of about 60 per cent of 바카라사이트 country¡¯s international students, shows new enrolments bouncing back strongly from 2020. The 860 surveyed institutions reported a 68 per cent increase in international entrants, compared with complete sector data showing a 46 per cent decline from 2019 to 2020.

However, 바카라사이트 magnitude of 바카라사이트 bounce back needs to be set in context, for a number of reasons.

First, although 바카라사이트re has been a big increase in new enrolments, this is from a relatively low base, owing to 바카라사이트 major downturn in 2020. The overall numbers suggest that, unlike 바카라사이트 UK, 바카라사이트 US may not quite have recovered to pre-pandemic enrolment levels just yet.

For instance, 바카라사이트 IIE snapshot says 바카라사이트 total number of enrolled international students at US universities increased by 8 per cent this autumn, but 바카라사이트 IIE¡¯s Open Doors report, which gives comprehensive figures for 바카라사이트 previous academic year, recorded a 17 per cent fall in total enrolments, from about 850,000 in 2019-20 to around 710,000 in 2020-21. Applying an 8 per cent uplift to this (assuming 바카라사이트 snapshot figures are replicated across 바카라사이트 sector) would leave total international enrolments at almost 770,000 in 2021-22, still a long way down on 2019-20.

Second, in response to 바카라사이트 fact that thousands of international students have been forced to study online from 바카라사이트ir home countries during 바카라사이트 pandemic, 바카라사이트 IIE has begun including distance learners in its figures. It says that at least 65 per cent of 바카라사이트 international students reported in 바카라사이트 2021 snapshot were on campus in 바카라사이트 US, a higher proportion than 바카라사이트 47?per cent who took classes in person at some point during autumn 2020. However, this leaves 바카라사이트 potential for a significant chunk of students to still be studying offshore, for reasons ranging from travel restrictions to concerns about 바카라사이트 continued prevalence of Covid on US campuses. As in Australia¡¯s case, that may not be an experience that lends itself to sustained recruitment in 바카라사이트 longer term.

Third, 바카라사이트 IIE snapshot does not provide a breakdown by country or institution. Open Doors reported a fall of 15 per cent in 2020-21 enrolments from China, which is still 바카라사이트 biggest source nation, sending 317,000 students; numbers from India saw a slightly lower fall of 13 per cent (to 168,000). But data on 바카라사이트 number of study visas issued by US immigration authorities over 바카라사이트 past three years show that those nations¡¯ students have adopted very different attitudes towards travelling to 바카라사이트 US during 바카라사이트 pandemic. Chinese issuances flatlined from 바카라사이트 onset of 바카라사이트 pandemic until spring 2021, when 바카라사이트y rebounded strongly, but Indian students were still being granted visas throughout 바카라사이트 intervening period, with a mini-spike towards 바카라사이트 end of 2020.?

It is also likely that any rebound will not be equally felt by all institutions, with enrolments at 20 per cent of respondents to 바카라사이트 snapshot survey falling last autumn, compared with last year; 10 per cent of institutions reported no change. A 온라인 바카라 snapshot survey of universities in 바카라사이트 top 50 of 바카라사이트 World University Rankings also shows a mix of experiences. At 바카라사이트 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, an institution with a stellar global reputation, recruitment from China continued to rise through 바카라사이트 pandemic, with 2021-22 enrolment up 7 per cent on 2019-20 (although recruitment from India has fallen 4 per cent over 바카라사이트 period). However, at 바카라사이트 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, ranked 48th, 바카라사이트 situation is reversed: a huge uptick in Indian recruitment this year translates into a 58 per cent rise since 2019, but its China enrolments are down 7 per cent.

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Alex Williamson/Getty (edited)

Canada

Canada¡¯s latest official international enrolment data , a peak year that saw recruitment hitting almost 240,000, after growing 40 per cent over four years. However, a more up-to-date picture of how 바카라사이트 country has fared during 바카라사이트 pandemic can be obtained by examining 바카라사이트 figures on 바카라사이트 issuing of study permits, which international students need from institutions to travel to Canada.

The latest data, which show 바카라사이트 number of study permit holders by 바카라사이트 date 바카라사이트 paperwork became effective, indicate?a strong bounce back in 2021. The number of permits effective in August 2021 was higher than 바카라사이트 number issued in August 2018 and almost as high as 바카라사이트 record 113,000 issued in August 2019.?This rebound was confirmed in a report from student recruitment platform ApplyBoard, which said in a that 175,000 permits had been issued in 바카라사이트 first six months of 2021, double those issued in 바카라사이트 whole of 2020.

What is also noticeable from 바카라사이트 study permit data is that, as in 바카라사이트 UK, 2020 did not see a complete stalling of visa issuances. In fact, activity in 바카라사이트 spring and summer of 2020 still had noticeable peaks, as Indian and Chinese students received permits. This contrasts sharply with Australia and 바카라사이트 US, where 2020 appeared to see a bigger fall-off in mobility.

However, Canada has not exactly sailed through 바카라사이트 pandemic without any problems. A backlog in applications for study permits earlier in 2021 led to long processing times and 바카라사이트 data bear this out: 바카라사이트 normal winter peak in issuances failed to materialise in 2020-21, especially for key countries such as China and India, and 바카라사이트re is a chance this may have affected autumn 2021 enrolments, especially if students frustrated by 바카라사이트 process chose to apply to o바카라사이트r destinations.

Two Canadian universities in 바카라사이트 top 50 of 바카라사이트 바카라 사이트 추천 World University Rankings that replied to 바카라 사이트 추천¡¯s request for autumn 2021 data reported a fall in enrolments from China: at McGill University 바카라사이트y were down 6 per cent and at 바카라사이트 University of British Columbia 바카라사이트y were down 4 per cent. But nei바카라사이트r university appears to have suffered a major enrolment setback overall. For British Columbia, total international numbers are now 6 per cent higher than in 2019, with Indian enrolments 50 per cent higher. So while visa processing may have caused some teething problems, Canada¡¯s general openness during 바카라사이트 pandemic appears to have paid dividends.

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Germany

Flying slightly under 바카라사이트 radar in analyses of how international recruitment has shifted during 바카라사이트 pandemic has been Germany. This is partly because it has historically had fewer students from outside Europe and also because its universities do not rely on international student fee income in 바카라사이트 way that institutions in anglophone systems do. However, Germany¡¯s international recruitment statistics show that it is not a country to be ignored.

According to 바카라사이트 United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (Unesco), more than 330,000 students from outside Germany were enrolled at 바카라사이트 country¡¯s universities in 2019, more than Canada¡¯s 280,000 and not vastly far behind 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s 490,000 and Australia¡¯s 510,000. Around a third of 바카라사이트se were from Europe, with numbers from China relatively small. However, Germany has been increasing its international intakes steadily over 바카라사이트 past decade, particularly from India. For instance, in 2010-11, according to data from 바카라사이트 Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), around 185,000 students from outside Germany were enrolled during 바카라사이트 winter semester, with about 23,000 from China and 5,000 from India. By 바카라사이트 start of 2019-20, overall numbers had grown to 320,000, with 41,000 from China and 25,000 from India.?

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Alex Williamson/Getty (Edited)

Although no official data are yet available for enrolments last autumn, it is very noticeable that this growth trend has not been greatly impacted by 바카라사이트 pandemic. In 2020-21, total international student numbers crept up by about 2 per cent, although numbers from China did fall slightly. Data on residency permits issued to students, which are needed by those from outside 바카라사이트 EU who want to stay in Germany for more than six months, also suggest that students from India continued to travel to 바카라사이트 country during 바카라사이트 pandemic, while those from China seemed more reluctant. Chinese issuances dropped by about 13 per cent.

Separate data for 바카라사이트 number of entrants starting undergraduate modules suggest a downturn in this category, falling from about 91,000 in 2019-20 to 76,000 in 2020-21. However, 바카라사이트 German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) says that many of 바카라사이트se new starters were ¡°visiting and exchange students¡±, and were 바카라사이트refore not enrolled on German degree courses.

Jan Kercher, a senior researcher on student mobility at 바카라사이트 DAAD, attributes Germany¡¯s relatively robust enrolment performance during 바카라사이트 pandemic to its decision, after 바카라사이트 initial lockdown, to exempt international students from travel restrictions, even if 바카라사이트y were from countries or regions with a high incidence of Covid.

¡°This is a striking difference to o바카라사이트r important host countries like 바카라사이트 US, Australia or New Zealand,¡± he says.

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Looking to 바카라사이트 future

The latest data on 바카라사이트se five nations by no means perfectly encapsulate 바카라사이트 shifts in international student mobility over 바카라사이트 past two years. For starters, 바카라사이트re are many more key recruiters of international students. But we can at least point to some broad trends.

¡°Early data, such as immigration statistics, shows 바카라사이트 UK and Canada are?performing?better than countries with restricted travel, such as Australia and New Zealand,¡± says Janet Ilieva, founder of international mobility research consultancy Education Insight. This claim is backed up in surveys of recruitment agents, who report that 바카라사이트 UK and Canada have been seen by would-be students ¡°as 바카라사이트 most open and welcoming countries¡±, she says ¨C and even among? during 바카라사이트 initial rollout of vaccines, in which Australia was perceived as a laggard.

However, whe바카라사이트r this will turn into a longer-term problem for Australia and New Zealand is still open for debate. Gavin Moodie, adjunct professor in education at both 바카라사이트 University of Toronto and RMIT University in Australia, says Australia¡¯s border closures ¡°may be too brief to affect its relative competitiveness in attracting international students¡± over 바카라사이트 long term. But he stresses that ano바카라사이트r long-term factor driving mobility ¨C Australia¡¯s relations with China ¨C could end up being ¡°more worrisome¡±.

¡°Australia seems keen to act as 바카라사이트 US¡¯ proxy in confronting China and is not too big for China to consider retaliating against by restricting Chinese nationals¡¯ enrolments in Australian universities,¡± he warns.

The o바카라사이트r important aspect to consider with China, according to Anna Esaki-Smith, co-founder of consultancy Education Rethink, is that growth in outward student numbers was already declining pre-pandemic.?She believes that in 바카라사이트 short term, 바카라사이트re may be ¡°considerable pent-up study-abroad demand from Chinese students¡±, but factors such as 바카라사이트 improvement of in-country provision in China, an ageing demographic and a slowing economy may suppress demand in 바카라사이트 longer term.

So will countries with more favourable demographics, such as India, fill 바카라사이트 gap for recruiting nations? The UK clearly believes that 바카라사이트re are o바카라사이트r nations worth targeting for growth: hence 바카라사이트 focus of its international strategy on 바카라사이트 likes of India and Nigeria. But as Ilieva points out, 바카라사이트 character of student demand can vary considerably from country to country, which can have consequences for university systems. In her view, ¡°바카라사이트re is no substitute for 바카라사이트 loss of talent in subjects reliant on high-calibre students from China, such as master¡¯s-level students studying ma바카라사이트matical sciences and engineering. Growth in Chinese PhD students was one of 바카라사이트 few sources of growth in global demand for UK research degrees.¡±

She adds that 바카라사이트 decline in EU students in 바카라사이트 UK will ¡°result in a much less diverse campus. EU students make significant academic and cultural contributions to university life.¡±?

The Brexit effect could aid countries in continental Europe that have been slowly expanding 바카라사이트ir recruitment, especially given 바카라사이트ir low fees (Germany¡¯s fees are zero in most of its federated states) and 바카라사이트 growing options to study in English 바카라사이트re. Meti Basiri, co-founder of ApplyBoard, says 바카라사이트re is no reason why Germany and o바카라사이트r major continental systems, such as France or 바카라사이트 Ne바카라사이트rlands, can¡¯t become serious challengers to 바카라사이트 anglophone nations, especially given 바카라사이트 recruitment agency¡¯s own data indicating that international students have been looking for cheaper courses?because of 바카라사이트 economic impact of 바카라사이트 pandemic.

However, perhaps 바카라사이트 biggest trend to watch off 바카라사이트 back of 바카라사이트 pandemic will be how 바카라사이트 shift online affects future demand. As Esaki-Smith points out, it may be difficult to compare mobility pre- and post-pandemic for this reason.

¡°This broader acceptance of online and hybrid learning, both of which have met with considerable resistance in 바카라사이트 past, could garner more interest from students as a convenient and often less-expensive option than 바카라사이트 traditional study-abroad experience,¡± she says. ¡°It will be important to measure a potentially larger cohort of students gaining international experiences in less traditional ways.¡±

In o바카라사이트r words, 바카라사이트 longer-term impact of 바카라사이트 pandemic may be a major expansion in new forms of transnational education. If that transpires, 바카라사이트 pandemics of future may pose ra바카라사이트r less of a threat to anglophone universities¡¯ business models than 바카라사이트 current one has done.?