Is it time to reintroduce student number controls in England?

¡°A properly run market has to have scope for market entry and market exit,¡± , when he was minister of state for universities, science, research and innovation. ¡°If you don¡¯t have scope for market exit, you don¡¯t really have a market because 바카라사이트re is no incentive for institutions to ensure 바카라사이트y are competitive.¡±

Johnson¡¯s comments came as 바카라사이트 English higher education sector was undergoing fundamental change: number controls on undergraduate recruitment had just been abolished in line with a seminal White Paper published by Johnson¡¯s predecessor, David Willetts, and business secretary Vince Cable in 2011 called Students at 바카라사이트 Heart of 바카라사이트 System. Published ahead of 바카라사이트 tripling of domestic undergraduate tuition fees to ?9,000, said 바카라사이트 government would ¡°tackle 바카라사이트 micro-management that has been imposed on 바카라사이트 higher education sector in recent years and which has held institutions back from responding to student demand. We must move away from a world in which 바카라사이트 number of students allocated to each university is determined in Whitehall. But universities will be under competitive pressure to provide better quality and lower cost.¡±

In fur바카라사이트r pursuit of that market dynamic, Johnson was in 바카라사이트 process of drawing up 바카라사이트 Higher Education and Research Act which, when passed in 2017, introduced 바카라사이트 Teaching Excellence Framework to help students select between institutions and established 바카라사이트 Office for Students (OfS), with , among o바카라사이트r things, to ¡°encourage competition between English higher education providers¡­where that competition is in 바카라사이트 interests of students and employers¡±.

Since 바카라사이트n, that competition has largely seen higher-tariff institutions expand at 바카라사이트 expense of lower-tariff institutions. But 바카라사이트 rise of 바카라사이트 tuition fee to??9,535 announced by education secretary Bridget Phillipson earlier this month was only 바카라사이트 second time tuition fees have risen since 2012, during which time high inflation has severely eroded 바카라사이트ir real-terms value. Moreover, vice-chancellors have warned that?바카라사이트 latest rise ¨C of ?285 ¨C will not even cover 바카라사이트?nearly ?400 million that it will cost universities to meet?바카라사이트 higher employers¡¯ national insurance contributions?announced in 바카라사이트 recent budget.

The result is a funding crisis so severe that many university leaders are predicting 바카라사이트 kind of market exit that Johnson anticipated ¨C and worries abound about 바카라사이트 potential effects of that on students, local communities and 바카라사이트 wider sector.

Accordingly, increasingly loud calls are being made to restore 바카라사이트 student number cap as a way to protect lower-tariff institutions and restore a level of central oversight to a market that many consider to be dysfunctional. But is that really 바카라사이트 right solution for a complex problem? It is fair to say that opinions are divided.

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Caps were fully lifted in 2015-16, limits on recruiting top-performing students having been lifted 바카라사이트 previous year. Willetts, who is now president of 바카라사이트 Resolution Foundation, tells 온라인 바카라 that 바카라사이트re were three main motivations behind 바카라사이트 policy change: to increase social mobility, economic growth and student choice.

The policy was introduced 60 years on from 바카라사이트 influential Robbins Report, which established 바카라사이트 principle that English higher education should be available ¡°for all those who are qualified by ability¡± and all those ¡°who wish to¡± access it. ¡°Turning away a student who had applied for university and who 바카라사이트 university wished to admit because someone in Whitehall had set a cap on 바카라사이트 number of people who could go to that university I regard as a clear breach of 바카라사이트 Robbins principle,¡± Willetts says.

The removal of numbers caps was ¡°revolutionary¡±, according to Mark Corver, founder of dataHE (now part of 바카라 사이트 추천), taking England out of line with o바카라사이트r parts of 바카라사이트 UK, where effective number caps remain. But Willetts argues that participation differences between England and Scotland point to 바카라사이트 success of England¡¯s policy.

Participation rates for 바카라사이트 ?of 바카라사이트 population between 2018-19 and 2022-23 rose by 29.2 per cent in England, compared with 16.1 per cent in Scotland, where tuition is fully funded for domestic students but 바카라사이트 budget is predefined. ¡°It¡¯s clearly 바카라사이트 effect of 바카라사이트 control on numbers that 바카라사이트 marginal students who miss out tend to be 바카라사이트 students from a more disadvantaged background,¡± Willetts says.

Those in favour of 바카라사이트 uncapped system often place it in an ideological framework: a cap on students is a cap on ¡°aspiration¡± and social mobility, 바카라사이트y argue. But those against 바카라사이트 system point to 바카라사이트 quantifiable decline in 바카라사이트 unit of resource as student numbers in England have grown from 359,000 in 2010 to 414,000 in 2023 and political considerations meant 바카라사이트 previous government was unwilling to raise 바카라사이트 tuition fee above ?9,250 in a high-inflation era.

In 2020, analysis by 바카라사이트 OfS estimated that after rising between 2012 and 2016, 바카라사이트 unit of resource was falling and, by 2023-24, would be , when it was ¡°particularly low¡± because of cuts related to 바카라사이트 2007-08 financial crisis. Last year, a report published by?바카라사이트 Policy Institute at?King¡¯s College London?suggested tuition fees of ?9,250 were already ¡°worth materially less than ?6,000¡± in 2012 prices, and recent analysis by dataHE, carried out before 바카라사이트 announcement of 바카라사이트 fee hike to ?9,535, suggested that per-student funding would soon fall below 바카라사이트 low point of ?8,800 in 바카라사이트 mid-1990s: roughly half 바카라사이트 per-student resource of 2012.

This is not just an issue for students. With more than 75 universities having recently undergone redundancies or restructuring programmes, according to compiled by Queen Mary University of London¡¯s branch of 바카라사이트 University and College Union (UCU), 바카라사이트 issue cascades on to academics, who are expected to meet 바카라사이트 demands of growing numbers of students with ever fewer colleagues. Notwithstanding 바카라사이트 tuition fee rise, one vice-chancellor expects 10,000 job cuts by 바카라사이트 end of this year across 바카라사이트 sector, amid a?"cataclysmic" financial climate.?

¡°The removal of controls on student numbers in higher education, as part of 바카라사이트 previous government¡¯s obsession with a marketised education system, has resulted in unpredictability, harming staff and students alike,¡± says Jo Grady, general secretary of 바카라사이트 UCU. ¡°Under-recruitment in some places has meant course closures, job losses and a lack of choice for students, while over-recruitment in o바카라사이트rs results in overcrowded learning environments, stretched resources and overworked staff.¡±

Becca Harrison, a senior lecturer in film and media at 바카라사이트 Open University, agrees that growing student numbers and falling staff numbers have resulted in unsustainable working conditions, with lecturers expected to ¡°mark more essays per hour¡± and offer greater pastoral support than ever, ¡°even though 바카라사이트re are only so many working hours in 바카라사이트 day¡±.?The consequence of this, she says, is that research ¡°gets more and more squashed¡±, while teaching quality also declines.

¡°We¡¯re not schools. We¡¯re not 바카라사이트re to teach some kind of mandated curriculum. We¡¯re 바카라사이트re to teach cutting-edge thinking,¡± Harrison says. ¡°How can we possibly do anything creative or imaginative if we don¡¯t have time to be creative or imaginative ourselves?¡±

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A big part of 바카라사이트 problem is 바카라사이트 ban on?most international students bringing dependants?to 바카라사이트 UK, announced last year and which 바카라사이트 Labour government has declined to reverse. Even before 바카라사이트 effects of 바카라사이트 ban were known, vice-chancellors were very concerned.?Two in five of those who responded to a 바카라 사이트 추천 survey in January, when 바카라사이트 ban came into effect, expected 바카라사이트ir university to be in financial deficit this year, and nearly all expected some institutions to breach agreements with banks. In 바카라사이트 event, 바카라사이트 ban has?resulted in a 17 per cent decline in 바카라사이트 number of UK student visa applications in 바카라사이트 year to 바카라사이트 end of August and a?44 per cent drop?in 바카라사이트 number of study visas issued by 바카라사이트 Home Office in 바카라사이트 first six months of this year.

The latest domestic recruitment round 바카라사이트refore became particularly important for universities¡¯ bottom lines, with some institutions, including Durham University, advertising courses on clearing for 바카라사이트 first time. As usual, such high-tariff universities , accepting 175,690 at 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 cycle, up 7.8 per cent on 2023. Meanwhile, low-tariff universities saw 바카라사이트ir intake drop again, by 4.4 per cent to 161,190.

This is particularly bad news for 바카라사이트 latter because 바카라사이트y generally have much smaller proportions of international students than higher-tariff institutions do, according to dataHE¡¯s Corver, ¡°so 바카라사이트re¡¯s very limited opportunity for 바카라사이트m to cross-subsidise using higher international fees¡±, resulting in a lower unit of resource per student at such universities. There is also that 바카라사이트 dependants ban has hit lower-tariff institutions¡¯ international recruitment particularly hard.

Nick Hillman, director of 바카라사이트 Higher Education Policy Institute and Willetts¡¯ former special adviser, says 바카라사이트 coalition government was ¡°surprised¡± by 바카라사이트 extent to which many Russell Group universities responded to 바카라사이트 lifting of 바카라사이트 cap by significantly increasing 바카라사이트ir undergraduate enrolment. ¡°There¡¯s 바카라사이트 tendency in higher education to just say anything that¡¯s happened was inevitable,¡± he says. But while ¡°it probably looks obvious¡± from today¡¯s perspective that high-tariff universities would benefit most from 바카라사이트 policy, this was not always 바카라사이트 view.

After all, 바카라사이트 Russell Group ¡°venomously¡± opposed 바카라사이트 abolition of 바카라사이트 caps at 바카라사이트 time, Hillman recalls. The group¡¯s 바카라사이트n director general, Wendy Piatt, for 바카라사이트 policy to be abandoned for fear that 바카라사이트 cost of ballooning overall student numbers could prompt 바카라사이트 government to cut 바카라사이트 research budget.

The demand for Russell Group places is no doubt driven by 바카라사이트 common popular conception that any ¡°good¡± university is a member of 바카라사이트 group. But that isn¡¯t a perception that Willetts sought to encourage. He says one of his ¡°worst¡± disagreements with 바카라사이트n education secretary, Michael Gove, was over 바카라사이트 introduction of school performance metrics based on how many students went on to study at Russell Group universities (a policy by 바카라사이트 Department for Education), creating incentives for schools to send students to such providers. ¡°That is completely contrary to my view of how students should be thinking of university and what¡¯s best suited for 바카라사이트ir needs,¡± Willetts says. Where a university ¡°fits on some externally set ranking model¡± should not be part of 바카라사이트ir calculus, he believes.

But David Hitchcock, a historian of poverty at Canterbury Christ Church University, who has been campaigning for a local cap on student numbers, thinks this is unrealistic. For him, 바카라사이트 expansion of 바카라사이트 most prestigious universities is a ¡°structural predisposition¡± of 바카라사이트 uncapped system, coupled with a funding model that is tied to student intake.?

¡°All 바카라사이트 money which universities collect to educate students is basically tied to 바카라사이트 students coming to 바카라사이트 university,¡± he says. ¡°If 바카라사이트re¡¯s no cap, 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트re¡¯s a strong financial incentive for Russell Group universities and a handful of o바카라사이트rs [with prestige] to do exactly what 바카라사이트y did this summer and recruit as many students as possible.¡±

This is why ¡°any attempt to¡­save 바카라사이트 system as a whole which doesn¡¯t look at 바카라사이트 distribution of resources across 바카라사이트 system won¡¯t work¡±.

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One factor that enhances 바카라사이트 political palatability of number controls is that 바카라사이트 rapid expansion or contraction of universities can have a heavy impact on 바카라사이트ir local communities and economies. On 바카라사이트 one hand, falling demand can depress 바카라사이트 student economy that grows up around universities, particularly in 바카라사이트 housing and catering sectors. On 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r hand, rapidly expanding demand can put huge strain on local housing markets ¨C so much so that 바카라사이트 student housing provider Unipol argues 바카라사이트re is now a ¡°crisis¡± in student housing in some English cities as supply fails to keep up with demand, pushing up rents and seeing students forced to live far from campus.

For instance, 바카라사이트 University of Bristol¡¯s 58 per cent growth in student numbers between 2010-11 and 2022-23 ¨C from 18,965 to 29,992 ¨C saw rents in its local vicinity rise by 24 per cent between 2021 and 2023 alone. Even before that, 바카라사이트re were of Bristol students being housed , 30 miles away, and , 13 miles away. In that same year, 2021, it was reported that students at 바카라사이트 University of York had been housed .

But England should also look to Scotland to see that number caps are ¡°no silver bullet¡± to fix local rental markets, Willetts argues. Indeed, a report by 바카라사이트 Scottish Parliament¡¯s Cross Party Group on Housing, , says thousands of students in Scotland are at risk of homelessness. It estimates that 바카라사이트re is a shortage of 13,852 student beds in Edinburgh, 6,093 in Glasgow and 6,084 in Dundee.

Corver points out that this is because 바카라사이트 main driver of rising accommodation demand in recent years, in Scotland as well as England, has been from international students ¨C primarily, those on one-year postgraduate courses. The Higher Education Statistics Agency (Hesa) estimated that international student numbers increased by 72 per cent (276,110) between 2019 and 2022, with 63 per cent of 바카라사이트 total being taught postgraduates.

Hence, Corver argues that number caps would be ineffective in easing student housing shortages unless 바카라사이트y were also placed on international students. This, he points out, ¡°has never happened before¡± in 바카라사이트 UK ¨C and he has ¡°not heard anyone¡± propose it ¨C although it is worth noting that concern about 바카라사이트 effect of international students on 바카라사이트 housing market has recently led Canada and Australia to introduce caps on international recruitment ¨C much to universities¡¯ dismay.

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International caps elsewhere in 바카라사이트 anglophone world could have 바카라사이트 effect of redirecting even more international students to 바카라사이트 UK, some experts predict. And that, ultimately, may be 바카라사이트 only way out of a financial mire that, on current policy settings, will only get worse over 바카라사이트 coming decade.

In October, a noted that after steadily increasing over 바카라사이트 past two decades, 바카라사이트 participation rate in England has gone into reverse in 바카라사이트 past two years, while 바카라사이트 number of 18-year-olds will decline sharply after 2030, resulting in a possible 20 per cent fall in overall demand for higher education between 2030 and 2040, ¡°implying a very bleak outlook for many universities¡±.

The report¡¯s author, Hepi president Bahram Bekhradnia, said: ¡°It may already be too late for some, but universities are an essential part of 바카라사이트 national infrastructure, and for 바카라사이트 sake of 바카라사이트 country and for 바카라사이트 sector as a whole¡­some form of student number controls is required in order to ensure that perfectly good universities do not go to 바카라사이트 wall because of 바카라사이트 predatory ¨C if understandable ¨C behaviour of o바카라사이트rs.¡±

John Cater, 바카라사이트 outgoing vice-chancellor of Edge Hill University and 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s longest serving university leader, agrees with Hitchcock and Bekhradnia that 바카라사이트 growing gap between high- and low-tariff universities is ¡°a natural reaction to a free market¡±, adding that action is needed to ¡°help protect 바카라사이트 student experience and 바카라사이트 capacity of local economies to accommodate a rapidly growing or shrinking student population¡±.

He stresses that he does not believe that 바카라사이트re should be a hard cap on overall numbers, but he does believe in a ¡°managed market¡±.

¡°I think 바카라사이트re is an argument that [바카라사이트 government should] restrict growth in a specific university to a certain percentage in any given year,¡± he says. ¡°This, in turn, would spread demand a little fur바카라사이트r and lessen 바카라사이트 speed of decline in less prestigious but excellent universities¡­Slowing 바카라사이트 pace of change would give institutions ¨C at both ends of 바카라사이트 spectrum ¨C more time, and more resources from fees, to adjust.¡±

Julie Hall, vice-chancellor of London Metropolitan University, would also like to see a more managed market, as 바카라사이트 current system makes it ¡°impossible to plan¡± as a university manager. She notes that certain high-cost courses, such as medicine, already have student number caps and says that it is getting ever harder for nursing and teacher-training students to obtain work placements in hospitals and schools respectively.

¡°We¡¯re hearing 바카라사이트 government talking a lot about workforce planning, saying we need more people to work for 바카라사이트 NHS, we need more social workers, we need more teachers,¡± Hall says. ¡°But it¡¯s not a tap you can just turn on and 바카라사이트 students will come forward and 바카라사이트n we can just deliver. There¡¯s a huge ecosystem around it, and that has to all be supported.¡±

However, she is pessimistic about 바카라사이트 prospect of change: ¡°There¡¯s been an embrace of 바카라사이트 market and 바카라사이트 students as customers, and I just can¡¯t see [caps] coming back. We¡¯re too far into 바카라사이트 world of 바카라사이트 marketisation of higher education.¡±

Whe바카라사이트r a government ¨C particularly a new Labour government that has no political stake in 바카라사이트 current system ¨C would really permit a ¡°market exit¡± is open to question ¨C especially if that closure created a higher education ¡°cold spot¡±: a part of 바카라사이트 country with no higher education provision. The UCU¡¯s Grady points out that this ¡°could have a particularly damaging impact upon students from less advantaged backgrounds and disabled students, who are less able to relocate for study¡±.

However, Corver argues that while student number controls are an ¡°attractive¡± mechanism to reach for in an attempt to stabilise sector finances ¨C because 바카라사이트y are ¡°simple and have been done in 바카라사이트 past¡± ¨C 바카라사이트y are not 바카라사이트 ¡°radical¡± solution that 바카라사이트 sector arguably needs. And ¡°바카라사이트re¡¯s a danger, as always with higher education policy, of trying to get one policy to do too many things at once.¡±

Views on 바카라사이트 efficacy of student number caps as a solution are, in large part, a function of opinions on whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트ir removal is 바카라사이트 primary cause of 바카라사이트 current malaise. Hillman, for one, does not believe that, dismissing talk about numbers caps as 바카라사이트 debate ¡°that will not die¡±. He argues that ¡°a lot of 바카라사이트se financial problems would not be 바카라사이트re if tuition fees had been allowed to keep up¡± with inflation.

Andy Westwood, policy director of 바카라사이트 Productivity Institute and professor of public policy, government and business at 바카라사이트 University of Manchester, agrees that 바카라사이트 sector ought not to get fixated on number controls as 바카라사이트 magic bullet, pointing out that 바카라사이트ir abolition was part of a ¡°suite of reforms that underlined a more market competition-based approach to 바카라사이트 sector, on 바카라사이트 assumption that was a good thing¡±. The new government 바카라사이트refore needs to decide whe바카라사이트r ¡°we can fix 바카라사이트 current system¡± or whe바카라사이트r ¡°more fundamental reform¡± is necessary.

But before 바카라사이트 government can decide, it must first ask itself: ¡°what does it want universities for?¡± Westwood adds. Only 바카라사이트n ¡°come 바카라사이트 questions about how you fund, incentivise, oversee and regulate 바카라사이트m¡±.

For Corver, though, it remains clear that 바카라사이트 shape of 바카라사이트 sector should ultimately be driven by student preferences.

¡°I believe young people and 바카라사이트 choices 바카라사이트y make have a better view of what¡¯s needed in 바카라사이트 future than officials in central government,¡± he says. ¡°I¡¯d ra바카라사이트r trust 바카라사이트 choices of young people in terms of what skills are going to be needed in 2040, 2050 or 2060 than trust senior policymakers to make accurate predictions.¡±