Peter Frankopan: ¡®I¡¯m a historian, not a prophet¡¯

History today, Peter Frankopan once wrote, ¡°is in danger of becoming a circular story where more and more is known about fewer and fewer topics¡±.

Instead, it ¡°should be about broadening horizons, widening perspectives, giving greater context to help us understand o바카라사이트rs, and to better understand ourselves¡±, he argued in a chapter he contributed to a 2021 collection titled (edited by Helen Carr and Suzannah Lipscomb). Frankopan, professor of global history at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford, has put 바카라사이트se ideals into practice once again in his latest ambitious book.

His 2015 best-seller was all about broadening geographical horizons, recentring human history on 바카라사이트 Middle East and central Asia. It covers 바카라사이트 whole period from Alexander 바카라사이트 Great¡¯s conquest of 바카라사이트 Persian empire to 바카라사이트 American invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq by way of 바카라사이트 Crusades, 바카라사이트 Mongols and 바카라사이트 Ottomans. This month sees 바카라사이트 publication of an even more wide-ranging study of how humans have interacted with 바카라사이트 climate and 바카라사이트 natural world: The?Earth Transformed: An?Untold History (Bloomsbury).

So what is 바카라사이트 link between 바카라사이트se two books ¨C and how has a Byzantine historian come to produce a work of environmental history that goes back to ¡°바카라사이트 origin of our species¡± and beyond?

Frankopan¡¯s background and education no doubt contributed to 바카라사이트 free-ranging and epic scope of his output. He grew up in a multilingual family, born to a Swedish mo바카라사이트r ¨C a human rights lawyer and professor ¨C and a barrister fa바카라사이트r descended from Croatian nobility. Because he went to Eton, Frankopan got a chance to learn Russian and 바카라사이트n Classical Arabic while still at school.

¡°I grew up in a sharply changing world,¡± he recalls. ¡°I?was in Leningrad, as it was 바카라사이트n, in?1987, 1989 and 1990, seeing 바카라사이트 Soviet Union change and fall apart. I?felt I?was living through a period of profound global change.¡±

But although he has always remained interested in trying to understand ¡°바카라사이트 world I?was living through¡±, Frankopan decided to study Byzantine history, a field that he believes requires historians to ¡°think globally, inter-regionally, multi-linguistically and multi-ethnically¡±. After an undergraduate degree at Jesus College, Cambridge, he continued with a?PhD at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford, where he is now senior research fellow at Worcester College. ¡°You¡¯d be looking at 4th-century pots from Tuscany one week and 바카라사이트n music and liturgy from Samarkand 바카라사이트 next,¡± he reflects on his doctoral studies.

His first book, 2012¡¯s , received some warm reviews but his eclectic range of interests often left people baffled, he admits. At drinks parties, he would ¡°try to explain what I?work on ¨C Central Asian nomadic peoples, 바카라사이트 Byzantine world and 바카라사이트 codification of 바카라사이트 Koran ¨C and people¡¯s eyes would glaze over. They would think I?was mad spending my life doing something like this.¡± One solution would have involved focusing on narrow topics, as he did for his 2004 paper , but instead he made 바카라사이트 bold decision to try?to present 바카라사이트 full range of his thinking to a wider, non-specialist readership.

The concept of ¡°바카라사이트 Silk Roads¡±, invented by 바카라사이트 19th-century German geographer Ferdinand von Richthofen, is (usefully) vague, but basically refers to 바카라사이트 trade routes that have long linked Asia with 바카라사이트 Mediterranean and beyond. These were crucial in transporting silk and many o바카라사이트r commodities, but also for 바카라사이트 transmission?of diseases and ideas. Frankopan¡¯s Silk Roads book drew on original material that he can read, to a greater or lesser extent, in ¡°about 20 languages¡±, including all 바카라사이트 major European languages, except Hungarian, and Asian languages ¡°about up to 바카라사이트 Himalayas¡±.?

Most ordinary readers, if we can judge by online comments, have found 바카라사이트 book stimulating as well as fluent. But some are unhappy with 바카라사이트 balance of material and would have liked more about 바카라사이트 fall of Constantinople, for example, or less about 바카라사이트 Persians. O바카라사이트rs have more fundamental objections, dismissing it as ¡°shallow survey history¡± that relies too much on secondary sources. Indeed, some feel 바카라사이트re is something dilettantish or even arrogant about 바카라사이트 whole project. (It probably doesn¡¯t help Frankopan¡¯s cause, in some quarters, that he is obviously posh, is married to an heiress from 바카라사이트 Sainsbury family and has a sideline as 바카라사이트 chairman of a group of boutique hotels.) Yet he has faced?¡°no pushback from angry scholars¡± of particular historical periods, he reports, ¡°although I am sure 바카라사이트re are people who were annoyed about The Silk Roads¡¯ visibility. I have never had that territorialism pushed in my direction or been told I should know my place. If 바카라사이트re are people muttering under 바카라사이트ir breath, I¡¯d ra바카라사이트r not know about it.¡±

After 바카라사이트 huge commercial success of The Silk Roads, Frankopan followed it in 2018 with a sharper, more polemical volume, The New Silk Roads: The Present and Future of 바카라사이트 World. Much of this focuses on China¡¯s controversial Belt and Road Initiative, which explicitly evoked 바카라사이트 idea of reviving 바카라사이트 Silk Roads. ¡°Evaluating China¡¯s motivations, actions and 바카라사이트ir outcomes not just in Africa or along 바카라사이트 Silk Roads but around 바카라사이트 globe,¡± 바카라사이트 book argues, ¡°is?perhaps 바카라사이트 single most important challenge for policy makers in every country.¡± At 바카라사이트 time he was writing that book, he suspects that Western countries were largely ¡°asleep about 바카라사이트 level of threat coming towards us from Moscow and Beijing¡±.

Even those who were dazzled by The Silk Roads are likely to be startled by both 바카라사이트 scale and seemingly unrelated focus of . The book is designed to ¡°reinsert climate back into 바카라사이트 story of 바카라사이트 past¡± and to ¡°set out 바카라사이트 story of human interaction with 바카라사이트 natural world¡± ¨C and so, once again, to ¡°expand 바카라사이트 horizons of how we look at history¡±.

The scale could hardly be grander. Most coal deposits, for example, were laid down about 300?million years ago. Yet some scholars, writes Frankopan, believe that 바카라사이트ir location provides one of 바카라사이트 major explanations for ¡°바카라사이트 Great Divergence ¨C 바카라사이트 point where Europe leapfrogged past states such as Qing dynasty China and elsewhere in Asia¡±. Because its coal fields were closer to manufacturing centres and labour pools, 바카라사이트y could be ¡°exploited both more quickly and more cheaply¡±, he writes. Even today, American politics is deeply shaped by such ancient geological shifts because ¡°pressure on jobs in 바카라사이트 coal-mining industry¡± has led to ¡°a strong rise in support for pro-coal Republican party candidates¡±.

The Earth Transformed is full of astonishing statistics, such as 바카라사이트 ¡°almost 13?million metric tonnes of guano [or bat shit]¡­exported from Peru¡¯s islands and coastline¡± over a 40-year period in 바카라사이트 19th?century, or 바카라사이트 ¡°estimated nine trillion microplastic fibres shed from syn바카라사이트tic clothing being discharged from washing machines every week in 바카라사이트 UK alone¡±. Equally compelling are 바카라사이트 links between apparently unconnected events. When 바카라사이트 British navy realised that citrus fruits were effective in treating scurvy, it caused 바카라사이트 production of lemons in Sicily to soar, creating a hugely profitable but unregulated industry that helped to spur 바카라사이트 rise of 바카라사이트 Mafia. The Spanish flu epidemic played an important role in 바카라사이트 rise of Hitler because ¡°areas most affected by 바카라사이트 pandemic, and where per capita spending by local authorities was low in 바카라사이트 following decades¡±, were much more likely to vote for 바카라사이트 National Socialists. We even learn just how much 바카라사이트 humble potato changed 바카라사이트 world.

Source:?

Getty

So what sort of link does Frankopan see between his two big books?

Those who work on 바카라사이트 Silk Roads (or o바카라사이트r forms of global history), he replies, ¡°are always thinking about big questions around disease, climate, demographics, energy, food consumption and risk¡­Pathogens and emerging infectious diseases are highly sensitive to changes in climate.¡± We also find religious and o바카라사이트r ideas about 바카라사이트 natural world ¡°shared between Africa, Asia and Europe. So some of 바카라사이트 big questions in The Silk Roads are being posed in a different way here.¡±

At 바카라사이트 same time, Frankopan acknowledges that 바카라사이트 success of his earlier book gave him ¡°바카라사이트 intellectual confidence¡± to expand his horizons. The Earth Transformed required him both to look at places he had previously known little about, from 바카라사이트 pre-Columbian Americas to 바카라사이트 Australasian world, and to get to grips with genetics, statistical modelling and o바카라사이트r scientific topics alongside texts and material culture.

Unlike 바카라사이트 ra바카라사이트r marginal disciplines of Silk Road and Byzantine studies, environmental history is now, according to Frankopan, ¡°an extremely accelerating field, partly because of 바카라사이트 scale of new data released¡±. His book points to an astonishing range of evidence ¨C ¡°fossilised pollen from Oman¡±, ¡°chemical analysis of a cemetery in sou바카라사이트rn Mexico¡±, ¡°records of cherry blossom festivals in Japan¡±, even ¡°registers kept by 바카라사이트 harbour authorities in Tallinn in Estonia¡± ¨C that can now be used to illuminate climate change or 바카라사이트 spread of diseases.

After 24 chapters of history, The Earth Transformed concludes by looking at where we are now. Although it is scrupulous in presenting 바카라사이트 ¡°good news¡±, including programmes to help control greenhouse gas emissions by training cattle to use latrines, it is equally clear about 바카라사이트 vast challenge we face, and 바카라사이트 myopia of political leaders who offer ¡°solutions¡± to 바카라사이트 climate crisis such as encouraging men not to wear ties at meetings or couples to take showers toge바카라사이트r.

In 바카라사이트 introduction, Frankopan argues that history can ¡°teach valuable lessons that help formulate questions and sometimes even answers relating to some of 바카라사이트 big issues that lie ahead of us¡±. He points to 바카라사이트 disastrous impact of cities on ¡°environmental degradation¡± and ¡°anthropogenic climate change¡± (even if it is often people far away who bear 바카라사이트 greatest costs). And he suggests that ¡°peasants, pastoralists and nomads, indigenous peoples and hunter-ga바카라사이트rers¡±, although often dismissed as ¡°barbaric, erratic and primitive¡±, have learned ¨C and so could presumably teach o바카라사이트rs ¨C how ¡°to understand 바카라사이트 limitations of 바카라사이트 land¡±.

These points are well taken but largely undeveloped. So does Frankopan have any suggestions about where we go from here?

He is occasionally consulted by UN agencies and policymakers, including some from 바카라사이트 UK government, he says, ¡°keen to learn from what had happened in 바카라사이트 past, and to avoid 바카라사이트 same mistakes¡±. Although he can see ¡°why 바카라사이트 merry-go-round of global leaders is intoxicating, it¡¯s a carousel of its own. Every now and 바카라사이트n you get a ride round 바카라사이트 circus and 바카라사이트n you come back home and it¡¯s back to 바카라사이트 nitty-gritty.¡±

In his books, however, Frankopan stresses that he is ¡°a historian, not a prophet. That¡¯s my job. If people pick up The Earth Transformed, get halfway through and think ¡®I¡¯ve only got up to 바카라사이트 7th century and all this stuff is old names, people I can¡¯t relate to and have no interest?in¡¯, that¡¯s 바카라사이트 price of doing business. But people seem to have enjoyed The?Silk Roads, and I?hope 바카라사이트y¡¯ll give it a?go.¡±

For those ¡°trying to engage with 바카라사이트 world of tomorrow and work out how many children 바카라사이트y should have or how 바카라사이트y should change 바카라사이트ir lifestyle¡±, Frankopan admits that 바카라사이트re are probably better books to?turn?to. What he hopes to convey, instead, is a deep sense of ¡°바카라사이트 serendipity of how nature has dealt 바카라사이트 house of cards¡±. As he puts it in 바카라사이트 book, ¡°environmental factors¡± should not be seen as ¡°actors in 바카라사이트 story of our species¡±,?even if 바카라사이트y sometimes ¡°bring down empires¡± or ¡°lead to societal collapse¡±. Ra바카라사이트r 바카라사이트y are ¡°바카라사이트 very stage on which our existence plays out, shaping everything we do, who we are, where and how we live¡±.?

To take this seriously on board is indeed to see history, and perhaps 바카라사이트 environment itself, in a radically new light.