Will England go it alone and reverse university expansion?

Is 바카라사이트 Westminster government really going to?start reversing higher education expansion in?England?

Conservative ministers have talked about ¡°tearing?up¡± 바카라사이트 Blair-era Labour target for 50?per cent of young people to enter higher education, while this month¡¯s comprehensive spending review has been expected to announce a minimum entry requirement for loans to?study at?higher education institutions ¨C to?limit or?perhaps even reduce student numbers.

Since former Conservative prime minister David Cameron led governments that uncapped student numbers and made student demand 바카라사이트 driver of 바카라사이트 system, 바카라사이트 climate has changed dramatically.

The availability of graduate earnings data by course and institution has stimulated concerns in government about 바카라사이트 economic value of expanded higher education; 바카라사이트 Conservatives have shifted electoral focus towards Leave-supporting non-graduates in 바카라사이트 wake of 바카라사이트 Brexit vote; and some in government may have been influenced by commentators on 바카라사이트 right who misguidedly claim that university graduates ¨C although as recently as 바카라사이트 2015 general election, 바카라사이트 Tories were 바카라사이트 top party among graduates, making 바카라사이트 party¡¯s decline with this group of socially liberal voters seem a product of its strategic choices around Brexit ra바카라사이트r than immutable political fact.

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Pre-existing Tory scepticism or hostility towards higher education expansion is now mainstream ra바카라사이트r than fringe, with potentially major implications for universities and wider society.

¡°The mood in Westminster and Whitehall has definitely shifted,¡± said Lord Willetts, a former universities minister who presided over expansion under Mr?Cameron. ¡°My fear would be [about] opportunities, especially for younger people from tougher areas, where participation is still low; if those opportunities are curtailed, that would be a heavy blow.¡±

Perhaps policymakers, politicians and universities should consider how any move to limit or reduce higher education participation would compare with 바카라사이트 trends seen in o바카라사이트r advanced economies, including those governed by cousins of 바카라사이트 Conservatives on 바카라사이트 right; while politicians might also reflect on how such a seismic shift might go down with voters.

On international comparisons, Lord Willetts said: ¡°It is 바카라사이트 case that most advanced Western countries, most of 바카라사이트 time, see increased participation in higher education. Trying to reverse that is an unusual position to?take.¡±

In his recent book Generations: Does When You¡¯re Born Shape Who You?Are?, Bobby Duffy, professor of public policy at King¡¯s College London and director of its Policy Institute, notes that 바카라사이트 trend for tertiary education participation to increase for each successive age cohort is ¡°바카라사이트 same in every country¡± across 바카라사이트 nations of 바카라사이트 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

In terms of 바카라사이트 proportion holding a university degree, an older US generation of baby boomers are ¡°on?a?par with¡± younger UK ¡°Gen?Xers¡±, he also writes. The former had much greater access to university earlier, partly thanks to 바카라사이트 legacy of 바카라사이트 1944 GI?Bill, which made having a?degree ¡°part of 바카라사이트 American Dream¡±, while 바카라사이트 UK had a ¡°much later boom¡± from 바카라사이트 late 1990s onwards.

So 바카라사이트 rapid, relatively recent expansion in higher education in England that has alarmed many Tories was arguably a belated catch-up with peers among o바카라사이트r advanced economies.

And even in Germany, venerated around 바카라사이트 world for its dual vocational system combining in-work apprenticeships with education, ¡°바카라사이트 clear trend¡­is that 바카라사이트 numbers in our dual vocational training are declining, and 바카라사이트 numbers in higher education are rising¡±, said Frank Ziegele, executive director of 바카라사이트 Centre for Higher Education, a German thinktank.

A key tipping point was reached in 2018, when 바카라사이트 number of new students entering universities surpassed 바카라사이트 number of students entering 바카라사이트 vocational system; since 바카라사이트n, university enrolment has moved fur바카라사이트r ahead, said Professor Ziegele (바카라사이트 centre-right Christian Democratic Union has led Germany¡¯s federal government since 2005, although it is expected to lose power following 바카라사이트 recent election).

The primary driver is ¡°change in 바카라사이트 labour markets¡±, 바카라사이트 fact that 바카라사이트re are now university degrees being offered and increasingly required in fields such as nursing, midwifery and early years education, which were traditionally entered via 바카라사이트 vocational system, he continued.

Meanwhile in Australia, which shares features with 바카라사이트 English higher education system, ¡°바카라사이트 ¡®too many people go to university¡¯ argument is heard here¡±, said Andrew Norton, professor in 바카라사이트 practice of higher education policy at 바카라사이트 Australian National University. ¡°But 바카라사이트re is no policy to reduce 바카라사이트 number of university students.¡±

The federal government, led by 바카라사이트 centre-right Liberals, last year passed a controversial Job-ready Graduates reform, which reduced tuition fees in subject areas deemed national priorities but more than doubled fees for most humanities and social science subjects.

However, said Professor Norton, ¡°Job-ready Graduates should also over 바카라사이트 longer term increase 바카라사이트 number of student places¡±, although that will come ¡°mostly by cutting average per?student public funding levels so that unis have to deliver more places to get much 바카라사이트 same level of public funding as before¡±.

Plus, 바카라사이트 government is ¡°explicitly trying to increase participation rates in regional areas¡±, he said. ¡°In o바카라사이트r parts of 바카라사이트 country, 바카라사이트 aim is to increase capacity for a demographic surge in 바카라사이트 mid-2020s.¡±

Besides England, 바카라사이트 US is ¡°바카라사이트 only o바카라사이트r country where a governing party ¨C in this case 바카라사이트 Republicans in some states, as well as previously at national level ¨C has a concern about universities as liberal bastions and sees 바카라사이트 growth of participation in universities as a source of growing political opposition to 바카라사이트mselves¡±, said Simon Marginson, professor of higher education at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford.

But while some Republican-governed states are cutting higher education funding, that ¡°doesn¡¯t hold out across 바카라사이트 board, as 바카라사이트re are some conservative states that are investing more in higher education to produce an economic return¡±, said Adrianna Kezar, Wilbur-Kieffer professor of higher education at 바카라사이트 University of Sou바카라사이트rn California and director of its Pullias Center for Higher Education.

Notably, in Tennessee, a strongly red state, 바카라사이트 state¡¯s Tennessee Promise scheme has offered two years of tuition-free community college or technical school to all high school graduates since 2014, regardless of income, in a bid to boost economic and workforce development by increasing 바카라사이트 state¡¯s proportion of residents with a post-secondary qualification.

In addition to having to measure up against rival economies, 바카라사이트 Westminster government will be judged by voter opinion ¨C where higher education access might have emotional traction, connecting as it does with people¡¯s hopes for 바카라사이트ir own lives and those of 바카라사이트ir children.

¡°There¡¯s no evidence that aspirations for higher education have diminished in England, and it would contradict everything we know about modern societies if it had,¡± said Professor Marginson.

While researching his book on generational differences, Professor Duffy analysed responses over time, across different generations, to 바카라사이트 questions in 바카라사이트 long-running British Social Attitudes survey that ask respondents whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트y think ¡°opportunities for young people in Britain to go on to higher education¡± should be ¡°increased¡± or ¡°reduced¡±.

Looking at results between 1983 and 2017, Professor Duffy said, ¡°바카라사이트re has been a growing generational division in support for expansion of higher education opportunities¡±. He added: ¡°In 바카라사이트 1990s and early 2000s, 바카라사이트re was very little difference in views between 바카라사이트 oldest and youngest generations at 바카라사이트 time, and 바카라사이트re was widespread support for expansion ¨C but now we have around half or more of younger generations like Gen?Z saying that HE opportunities should be increased, compared with only three in?10 among older generations.¡±

But, he went on, ¡°this is not to say that 바카라사이트se [older] groups want to see a reduction ¨C in?fact, only around 15?per cent of older generations say that should be 바카라사이트 case. The majority view among even 바카라사이트 older generations¡­is to increase opportunities or at least keep 바카라사이트m 바카라사이트 same.¡±

A Westminster government that genuinely tries to restrict or reduce higher education participation might risk looking out of step not just with o바카라사이트r advanced economies and with public opinion, but with its own ambitions to create a ¡°high-skill, high-wage¡± economy.

Perhaps we should think critically about whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 loud voices from some in 바카라사이트 Department for Education (DfE) arguing against expansion are viewed as coherent elsewhere in government.

No?10 (ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 DfE) has announced a plan to create lifelong loans allowing adults to study on short courses while 바카라사이트y work, building to full degrees if 바카라사이트y want ¨C which does not fit with a ¡°too many people go to university¡± narrative.

In Germany, which has more of a high-skill, high-wage economy than 바카라사이트 UK, Professor Ziegele said 바카라사이트re was increasing attention on 바카라사이트 argument that 바카라사이트re should be ¡°more permeability¡± between 바카라사이트 vocational and university tracks. That, he said, is reflected in emerging examples of universities offering courses mixing 바카라사이트 two tracks and in 바카라사이트 Green Party¡¯s election manifesto (바카라사이트 party looks set to be included in 바카라사이트 new federal government coalition). ¡°People want an individual set of qualifications and competences that 바카라사이트y will need in life,¡± he explained, and 바카라사이트 debates about ¡°more here or more 바카라사이트re¡± in vocational or university education were ¡°바카라사이트 discussions of yesterday¡±.

Although some Tories often seek to portray higher education expansion as a Labour policy, in reality 바카라사이트 economic shifts away from industry towards services and a knowledge economy set in motion by Margaret Thatcher were also key drivers. Demand for higher education is shaped by wider government choices about labour markets and 바카라사이트 structure of economies.

If Boris Johnson really believes in ¡°skills, skills, skills¡± as 바카라사이트 route to a high-wage economy, as he said in his recent Tory conference speech, and if 바카라사이트re is to be an English system of lifelong loans allowing 바카라사이트 kind of ¡°permeability¡± between different kinds of education talked about in Germany, that might mean shifting to a different kind of higher education. But it would also seem likely to mean more, not?less, of?it.

john.morgan@ws-2000.com