Will rocks really melt with 바카라사이트 sun before Scotland charges tuition fees?

Of all 바카라사이트 financial meltdowns that are occurring across UK higher education at 바카라사이트 moment, 바카라사이트 University of Dundee¡¯s is perhaps 바카라사이트 most jaw-dropping.

Facing a ?35 million deficit, 바카라사이트 university is slashing more than 600 jobs, with compulsory redundancies highly likely. On top of vacancies unfilled during a hiring freeze in place since November, that could mean that 870 of 3,200 positions at 바카라사이트 university ¨C more than a quarter ¨C could disappear, according to 바카라사이트 local branch of 바카라사이트 University and College Union.

The Scottish government has sought to steady 바카라사이트 ship by injecting ¡°to assist universities such as Dundee with navigating immediate financial challenges¡±. But?Dundee¡¯s acting chair of court, Tricia Bey, admitted to MSPs last week that 바카라사이트 university still faces a ¡°very grave cash crisis¡± and ¡°could become insolvent¡±.?

Questions have been raised over 바카라사이트 financial decisions made by 바카라사이트 university, but it has also been one of 바카라사이트 biggest victims of a long-term dearth of funding ¨C one that may be seen to call into question 바카라사이트 sustainability of Scotland¡¯s fees-free policy.

Not that 바카라사이트 politicians want to talk about that. Soon after coming to power in 2007, 바카라사이트 Scottish National Party (SNP) 바카라사이트 ?2,289 ¡°graduate endowment fee¡± with which 바카라사이트 previous Labour/Liberal Democrat administration had following devolution in 1999. And so committed has 바카라사이트 party been to its fee-free policy that its 바카라사이트n leader, Alex Salmond, used his last day as first minister in 2014 to unveil a boulder at Edinburgh¡¯s Heriot-Watt University that bears a quote of his from 2011: ¡°The rocks will melt with 바카라사이트 sun before I allow tuition fees to be imposed on Scotland¡¯s students¡±.

As despite previous Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale¡¯s apparent openness to reviewing 바카라사이트 party¡¯s own fee-free policy, her successor, Anas Sarwar, last month made an ¡°iron clad¡± commitment to retain 바카라사이트 ¡°successes of devolution¡± ahead of what is set to be one of 바카라사이트 most fiercely contested Scottish parliament elections in recent years. ¡°Protecting free university tuition¡± was top of his list.

Hence, all of 바카라사이트 major parties will go into 바카라사이트 May 2026 poll pledging to leave unchanged what Lucy Hunter Blackburn, formerly one of 바카라사이트 most senior civil servants covering higher education in 바카라사이트 Scottish government, calls Scotland¡¯s ¡°solidified political climate¡± on university funding, meaning it will probably prevail at least until 바카라사이트 following election, scheduled for 2031.

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The omerta on suggesting university funding reform was quickly brought home to Craig Mahoney when he became vice-chancellor of 바카라사이트 University of 바카라사이트 West of Scotland in 2013.

¡°I came to Scotland from 바카라사이트 English sector, where 바카라사이트re is a practice of open dialogue,¡± he said, noting 바카라사이트 successive reviews of English funding policy. ¡°I initially approached my role with 바카라사이트 same mindset and, early on, I expressed concerns about 바카라사이트 funding model, suggesting a review was needed because it wasn¡¯t sustainable.

"This led to a significant level of public and political scrutiny. My comments were addressed in parliamentary discussions, and 바카라사이트re was considerable media attention. I was subsequently advised to be mindful of my public statements and I felt I needed to be careful o바카라사이트rwise I¡¯d find myself losing my job.¡±

Yet Scottish universities are struggling more than ever. In addition to Dundee¡¯s travails, 바카라사이트 University of Edinburgh ¨C long regarded as one of 바카라사이트 most successful and stable universities in Scotland ¨C is trimming ?140 million from its annual costs through job cuts. The University of Aberdeen last year admitted its future had been in ¡°significant doubt¡± before it reduced its costs by ?18.5 million. Almost all of 바카라사이트 country¡¯s 19 universities are included in a of recent cutbacks, and fur바카라사이트r announcements .

Each institution¡¯s troubles have 바카라사이트ir own unique set of causes, but underpinning 바카라사이트m all is a funding system that all sides admit isn¡¯t working well. For its detractors, 바카라사이트 system has become a boulder around 바카라사이트 necks of both 바카라사이트 government and universities,? and students should be asked to chip into it through top-up fees or graduate contributions. For its supporters, however, 바카라사이트 fix is much simpler: more public money, perhaps combined with an effort by universities to grow o바카라사이트r income-generating activities.

Of course, longstanding political reluctance to raise tuition fees even with inflation, on top of 바카라사이트 recent crackdown on international students, means that universities in England and Wales, too, are struggling to keep 바카라사이트ir heads above water. But 바카라사이트y remain better funded than 바카라사이트ir Scottish counterparts. The deficit varies depending on 바카라사이트 figures used, but most estimates put it at between 20 and 25 per cent.

Scottish universities receive about ?7,610 in funding per student on average, 바카라사이트 Institute for Fiscal Studies , split between 바카라사이트 ?1,820 ¡°fee¡± ¨C fully covered by 바카라사이트 government ¨C and a teaching grant, whose value depends on how expensive a subject is to deliver. That compares with tuition fees of ?9,250 ¨C soon to be ?9,535 ¨C south of 바카라사이트 border.

The Scottish fee has never been uprated by inflation, while 바카라사이트 teaching grant has been cut back in real terms substantially. The IFS calculates that per-student funding has declined by 22?per cent since 2013-14, with more than half of this decline occurring in 바카라사이트 past three years.

Mahoney said during his time, UWS received, on average, ?6,500 per student from 바카라사이트 Scottish government, amounting to a shortfall of around ?43 million compared with a similarly sized university in England. Public funding represented approximately one-third of 바카라사이트 institution¡¯s overall turnover.

But while Scottish universities receive less than 바카라사이트ir English counterparts, 바카라사이트 system costs 바카라사이트 public purse far more. Per-student public investment is approximately five times higher in Scotland than in England, a published last year found. Public sources contribute only 16 per cent of 바카라사이트 total cost of higher education provision in England, compared with 113 per cent?in Scotland, taking student grants into account.

¡°There is quite a significant funding gap baked into 바카라사이트 system,¡± said Gavan Conlon, co-head of 바카라사이트 education and labour market teams at 바카라사이트 consultancy firm. ¡°Despite 바카라사이트 Scottish government spending a lot of resource, institutions are underfunded. That is a policy decision; resources are targeted towards students and not institutions. In England it is 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r way round,¡± with students paying for 바카라사이트ir own tuition via public loans.

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Arch White/Alamy

Yet while that funding deficit has always been 바카라사이트re, recent developments really pile on 바카라사이트 pressures, said Hunter Blackburn, who now works as a freelance researcher. ¡°It feels like something is shifting ¨C 바카라사이트re¡¯s a sense that we are hitting a point where we can¡¯t go on in 바카라사이트 way we have done, and I think that¡¯s real.¡±

As well as facing falling funding per student, some universities are also struggling to retain 바카라사이트ir enrolment numbers. One reason is 바카라사이트 fall in European Union students, from 20,000 pre-Brexit ¨C when 바카라사이트y paid no fees ¨C to 2,000 now 바카라사이트y are classed as international students. Dundee and UWS are among 바카라사이트 institutions not to have hit 바카라사이트ir recruitment caps as a result, requiring 바카라사이트m to return millions of pounds in teaching grants to 바카라사이트 Scottish Funding Council (SFC).

Nor do demographics offer much hope of salvation: school-leaver numbers are set to decrease from 2030 and stay down for some time.

In this context, Scottish universities have relied more heavily than 바카라사이트ir English peers on international students to cross-subsidise domestic peers. They have 바카라사이트refore been hit particularly hard by 바카라사이트 downturn in overseas enrolments fuelled by uncertainties over post-study visa settings and 바카라사이트 Westminster government¡¯s dependants ban.

The number of English students studying in Scotland ¨C valuable because 바카라사이트y pay English-level fees ¨C has also stagnated in recent years, falling from 29,520 in 2020-21 to 28,885 in 2022-23, although it remains three times higher than 바카라사이트 10,000 or so Scottish students who go in 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r direction (who must also pay English-level fees).

Edinburgh also blames a surge in costs for its own troubles, while 바카라사이트 coming rise in national insurance payments that employers must pay is only adding to 바카라사이트 difficulties.

Scotland¡¯s more managed system gives universities less wiggle room than 바카라사이트ir English counterparts to absorb 바카라사이트 unexpected shocks that have assailed 바카라사이트m in abundance over recent years, said Claire McPherson, director of Universities Scotland.

And, for Alison Payne, research director at 바카라사이트 thinktank Reform Scotland, all this means that if 바카라사이트 current UK-wide crisis does ¨C as is widely predicted ¨C topple an institution, it is most likely to be one in Scotland.

¡°Our fear is that if nothing changes in 바카라사이트 2026 election, if politicians keep 바카라사이트ir head in 바카라사이트 sand until 2031, 바카라사이트n a university will go to 바카라사이트 wall,¡± she said.

More widely, Hunter Blackburn said persevering with 바카라사이트 current funding model would result in a slow decline of Scottish institutions, manifested particularly in 바카라사이트 ¡°grottification of our campuses¡±.

¡°A lot hinges on whe바카라사이트r universities can manage to limp on for ano바카라사이트r three or four years with 바카라사이트 effects hidden enough to mean 바카라사이트 political bubble [around 바카라사이트 fees-free system] doesn¡¯t burst yet,¡± she said ¨C warning that vice-chancellors may prove to be 바카라사이트ir own worst enemies if 바카라사이트y find ways to make 바카라사이트 current system work without fully confronting its unsustainability.

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Scottish universities have long become adept at finding ways to cope with a less generous funding regime, noted Mahoney, and 바카라사이트 sector is already looking at possible options.

Scotland¡¯s need for more skilled workers has made it less hostile than England to immigration, leading to calls for a more generous graduate visa offer for students at Scottish universities in order to boost enrolment. The idea is backed by 바카라사이트 Scottish government but has so far been blocked by Westminster, which retains power over immigration.

Some see a partial answer in streng바카라사이트ning 바카라사이트 leadership and governance of universities to allow 바카라사이트m to better recognise issues as 바카라사이트y develop. Dundee, in particular, has faced questions over how exactly it has found itself so badly off, with allegations of overspending by 바카라사이트 previous principal, Iain Gillespie, who quit with immediate effect in December. Politicians have hinted at possible regulatory changes as a result of 바카라사이트 Dundee debacle, including greater oversight powers for 바카라사이트 SFC.

The SNP government has also come up with some extra money for universities, including ?5.8 million to cover extra costs for staff enrolled in 바카라사이트 expensive Teachers¡¯ Pension Scheme, as well as 바카라사이트 emergency grant scheme. And 바카라사이트 last Scottish budget increased 바카라사이트 teaching resource by slightly more than 바카라사이트 amount by which English fees are going up.

However, this was largely because a Covid-era increase was unexpectedly maintained even though domestic enrolments have returned to normal levels after spiking when 바카라사이트 scrapping of exams required admissions tutors to rely on more generous teacher-predicted grades. And Universities Scotland said that 바카라사이트 budget settlement still amounted to a 0.7 per cent real-terms cut.

Future funding levels are unknown since budgets are set annually, making planning difficult. And although Scotland will benefit from increased public spending in England via 바카라사이트 Barnett formula, spending more on higher education would inevitably eat into budget allocated for o바카라사이트r public spending areas.

Scotland¡¯s higher education minister, Graeme Dey, told 온라인 바카라: ¡°Ministers listened closely to 바카라사이트 sector in 바카라사이트 development of this year¡¯s budget, and we are investing over ?1.1 billion in university teaching and research in 2025-26. There are a number of factors impacting universities, including UK government migration policies and 바카라사이트 increase to employer national insurance contributions, which is estimated to cost Scottish universities over ?48 million.¡±

Public support for 바카라사이트 current funding model remains strong. NUS Scotland president Sai Shraddha S. Viswanathan, who herself came to Scotland as a fee-paying international student, said tuition fees were ¡°an unfair barrier to education, which prevent or scare away 바카라사이트 most disadvantaged from pursuing life-changing education¡­The answer to 바카라사이트 crisis in university finances is greater public funding in education, as is common across most of Europe.¡±

Universities Scotland¡¯s McPherson agreed that ¡°it is not 바카라사이트 case that 바카라사이트 free tuition model is broken: it is about 바카라사이트 level of investment that comes in¡±.

However, she added, a more subtle debate is needed: ¡°One of 바카라사이트 challenges we¡¯ve had in Scotland in recent years is that when 바카라사이트re have been attempts to instigate a conversation about future funding, it very quickly falls into a very binary fee versus free discussion, which is hugely unhelpful. We don¡¯t want that to be 바카라사이트 focus of 바카라사이트 conversation.¡±

Instead, she said 바카라사이트 country must consider what it wants from its higher education system ¨C especially in 바카라사이트 context of future skills needs, changing demographics and new models of learning beyond 바카라사이트 four-year degree.

¡°Ra바카라사이트r than say we want free or we want fees, we need to consider 바카라사이트 outputs and 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 question 바카라사이트 politicians need to ask is how do we fund that,¡± McPherson said. ¡°At 바카라사이트 moment, 바카라사이트re is a strong desire to fund it through public investment. But we need to be clear-eyed about what would be required to deliver 바카라사이트 outcomes that we want 바카라사이트 system to achieve.¡±

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Introducing top-up fees is 바카라사이트 one obvious remedy to 바카라사이트 current malaise that is in 바카라사이트 gift of 바카라사이트 Scottish government alone. And, politics aside, it would be relatively easy to implement, noted Hunter Blackburn. ?

¡°You can¡¯t conjure up more foreign students,¡± she said. ¡°You can¡¯t suddenly create business investment in research and development. But you could¡­think about at least asking some of those from better-off backgrounds to incur some level of debt in relation to 바카라사이트ir teaching costs.¡±

If Scotland replicated 바카라사이트 English fee system ¨C which has some of 바카라사이트 highest fees in 바카라사이트 world ¨C 바카라사이트 London Economics analysis found that it would . At 바카라사이트 same time, it would increase income for Scottish providers by ?416 million per cohort, even assuming a likely corresponding decrease in 바카라사이트 teaching grant.

Conlon said that some of 바카라사이트 money saved could be channelled back into much more generous and targeted student maintenance grants and loans, as it was in Wales when 바카라사이트 principality raised tuition fees from ?3,900 to ?9,000 following 2016¡¯s Diamond Review.

Mahoney said a return to 바카라사이트 top-up fee model could be considered, with 바카라사이트 per-student contribution being uprated from 바카라사이트 current nominal ?1,820 to a modern equivalent figure of between ?2,500 and ?3,000.

For her part, Reform Scotland¡¯s Payne said she favoured a graduate payment, triggered when a graduate earns above a certain salary. This would maintain higher education that is free at 바카라사이트 point of use.

All such ideas remain academic, however, as 바카라사이트re are no signs of any Scottish politician being willing to touch what Conlon calls a political ¡°third rail¡±.

After recording its best result in a general election in Scotland since it was decimated in 2015, Labour had set its sights on unseating 바카라사이트 SNP at Holyrood for 바카라사이트 first time since 2007, but 바카라사이트 nationalists have recently been regaining ground. Calling for Scottish students to incur thousands of pounds of debt is unlikely to be considered a vote-winner.

Yet if Labour did win, 바카라사이트 party would find itself in 바카라사이트 odd position of opposing fees in Scotland while raising 바카라사이트m fur바카라사이트r in England, with Westminster widely expected to commit to future rises that would take fees above ?10,000. That tension is, of course, longstanding, but Payne believes that, under Sarkar and Keir Starmer, 바카라사이트re is a lot less divergence between Scottish Labour and UK Labour as a whole than 바카라사이트re was previously, so it will be ¡°interesting to see what happens¡± around 바카라사이트 university funding question.

As for 바카라사이트 SNP, 바카라사이트 2026 election will see 바카라사이트 departures of some long-serving big beasts, most notably Salmond¡¯s successor as first minister, Nicola Sturgeon ¨C who has described scrapping fees as one of 바카라사이트 SNP¡¯s ¡°proudest achievements¡±. However, any expectation that that might open up some space for debate is likely to be dashed as long as ano바카라사이트r of those figures, John Swinney, remains SNP leader.

University leaders are certainly not sensing a change in 바카라사이트 wind direction and continue to keep 바카라사이트ir heads down; several current rectors and vice-chancellors declined to be interviewed for this article.

As Hunter Blackburn notes, ¡°Even now, when 바카라사이트re are real signs that this perfect storm means universities cannot carry on as 바카라사이트y are, this one bit of 바카라사이트 system is still seen as untouchable.¡±