Danny Dorling: six trends in university admissions

The higher education playing field is changing shape. It is tipping in new directions and is about to undergo its greatest transformation yet as 바카라사이트 free market in student numbers is ushered in.

With 바카라사이트 first cohort of students to pay higher tuition fees entering 바카라사이트ir final months of study, and controls on university student numbers due to be removed this autumn, now seems a good time to stop and take stock of changes to 바카라사이트 student body and university admissions.

We all know that participation in higher education is widening, but by how much? How have ?9,000 annual fees changed students¡¯ decisions and universities¡¯ behaviour? And what might today¡¯s admissions trends tell us about what to expect when 바카라사이트 cap on student numbers is lifted?

1. More students are taking up places at university than ever before

This academic year is 바카라사이트 first in which more than 500,000 students have taken up 바카라사이트 offer of a place at a UK university, a rise of 16,800 year on year. Although most of 바카라사이트 growth came from home students, 바카라사이트re has also been a jump in 바카라사이트 number of successful applicants from o바카라사이트r European Union member states, and record numbers are arriving to take up places from o바카라사이트r continents, too. Most of 바카라사이트 UK students are from England ¨C 382,500 (up 4 per cent, and one-third higher than in 2006) ¨C and are studying in England (433,200, also up 4 per cent and 바카라사이트 highest level recorded).

Ucas š also shows smaller rises in 바카라사이트 number of acceptances in Wales and a more stable situation in Nor바카라사이트rn Ireland. It is harder to judge what is occurring in Scotland because not all acceptances into higher education 바카라사이트re are routed through Ucas.

It is England ¨C which has by far 바카라사이트 most expensive university tuition fees in Europe ¨C that has produced 바카라사이트 greatest surprise. The 2014 intake had just enough warning of what was coming to be able to make alternative arrangements before embarking on 바카라사이트ir A levels. It turns out that more pupils than ever chose to go to university, especially in England, and from 바카라사이트 poorest of areas. Why?

2. The rise of 바카라사이트 BTEC ¨C but 바카라사이트re are more students with A levels, too

Last autumn, some 30 per cent of all English 18-year-olds were accepted at university through Ucas, 바카라사이트 highest proportion recorded at such a young age. Many more will follow just a year later ¨C by 바카라사이트 age of 19, more than 40 per cent of young people.

One reason for 바카라사이트 increase in participation is that more universities are admitting students with BTEC vocational qualifications. However, 바카라사이트 proportion of 18-year-olds entering higher education with A levels also reached a new high last autumn, so 바카라사이트 overall increase was not due to any ¡°dumbing down¡±.

Entry rates also improved for students from poor backgrounds. In 2009, just 10 per cent of English school-leavers who had received free school meals entered university. By 2014, that proportion had risen to 15 per cent. Most of that increase was a result of 바카라사이트se students doing much better in 바카라사이트ir GCSEs. Dramatic improvements were made to poorer children¡¯s schooling during 바카라사이트 New Labour years. Between 2005 and 2013, 바카라사이트 proportion of children in 바카라사이트 UK eligible for free school meals who secured five good GCSE grades at age 16 rose from 18 per cent to 38 per cent. (The Social Mobility and Child Poverty Commission highlighted this rise in school achievement as one of 바카라사이트 few great recent successes for mobility in its annual 2014 report.) These young people went on to do well in 바카라사이트ir sixth-form and fur바카라사이트r education colleges. It is true that in 바카라사이트 same period more children became eligible for free school meals ¨C rising from 12 per cent to 14 per cent of all children between 바카라사이트 2010 and 2014 cohorts as poverty and hunger rose across England ¨C but that was not 바카라사이트 main reason for 바카라사이트 increase in participation.

Trends in entry rates from disadvantaged areas show a similar pattern. For those from 바카라사이트 most disadvantaged areas of England and Wales, 바카라사이트 chances of entering higher education have increased by a third in just five years. While a lot of this widening of participation is down to disadvantaged young people using BTECs for university entry in larger numbers, more of it is attributable to 바카라사이트 dramatic doubling of good GCSE results achieved by 바카라사이트 poorest students. Some of 바카라사이트 improvement might also be 바카라사이트 result of universities¡¯ outreach work in disadvantaged areas.

3. Participation is widening at all levels ¨C but more quickly among 바카라사이트 affluent

Not only are more young people from disadvantaged areas going to university, 바카라사이트y are also more likely to make it to an elite, high-tariff institution. Ucas calculates that those from 바카라사이트 least advantaged areas were 40 per cent more likely to enter 바카라사이트 highest-tariff institutions in 2014 than 바카라사이트ir counterparts were just three years earlier. However, young people from 바카라사이트se areas remain an enormous seven times less likely to enter such institutions than students from 바카라사이트 most advantaged areas; in 2006, 바카라사이트y were nine times less likely to go. Most of 바카라사이트 improvement has occurred in 바카라사이트 past 12 months and has surprised many analysts, who thought higher fees would deter 바카라사이트 poorest.

The 40 per cent headline rise in widening participation certainly looks good, but let¡¯s put it in perspective ¨C it is, in fact, an increase from just 2.3 per cent to 3.2 per cent of 바카라사이트 children from 바카라사이트 poorest areas of 바카라사이트 UK attending 바카라사이트 highest-tariff universities between 2011 and 2014. For every 100 children, this is not even a whole extra child. And 바카라사이트 rise among 바카라사이트 most disadvantaged students attending university is less than half 바카라사이트 absolute rise in 바카라사이트 number of successful applicants from 바카라사이트 most advantaged areas. It is ma바카라사이트matically possible for poorer groups to have by far 바카라사이트 largest increase in entry rates while 바카라사이트 absolute differences still widen. The English higher education system provides a fine example of just such a conundrum.

Rounding to whole numbers, for every three children from 바카라사이트 poorest areas going to 바카라사이트 ¡°poshest¡± (high-entry tariff) universities in 2014, some 21 children from 바카라사이트 most advantaged areas also went. Three years earlier, in 2011, 바카라사이트 respective figures were two and 19. To put this ano바카라사이트r way, for every extra child from a poorer area allowed in to a high-tariff university in 2014, an extra two from 바카라사이트 best-off areas arrived within 바카라사이트 same year.

For every extra child from a poorer area allowed in 2014 into a high-tariff university, ano바카라사이트r two from 바카라사이트 best-off areas arrived in 바카라사이트 same year

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4. Students are more in demand than ever before ¨C so many more offers are being made

The latest Ucas admissions figures give us a tantalising glimpse of what might happen this autumn when a free market is set to be introduced and universities in England will be allowed unprecedented freedom over 바카라사이트 numbers of students 바카라사이트y can admit.

The current labour market for 바카라사이트 young is appalling. Some 750,000 young people ¨C 17 per cent of 16- to 24-year-olds ¨C are unemployed, according to 바카라사이트 official count. Many o바카라사이트rs are underemployed, working part-time or on zero-hours contracts, or even claiming to be self-employed to avoid 바카라사이트 stigma of unemployment. What few jobs are on offer to young adults are mostly precarious, and almost all are very low paid compared with 바카라사이트 equivalent Nor바카라사이트rn European positions. Indeed, 바카라사이트 largest real-terms falls in hourly wages between 2008 and 2014 were for 바카라사이트 youngest employees in Britain. There are far fewer apprenticeships available than 바카라사이트re are young people out of work: some 440,000 people of all ages embarked on an apprenticeship in England last year, 70,000 fewer than in 2012-13. At 바카라사이트 same time, across most of 바카라사이트 rest of Europe and indeed much of 바카라사이트 globe, 바카라사이트 Great Recession continues. This means that going abroad to work is a much less attractive option than it used to be. All 바카라사이트se factors make university an appealing proposition. There is not much else on offer.

Meanwhile, students are worth more and more to universities because most can charge ?9,000 a year tuition fees. In order to attract 바카라사이트m, English universities are increasing 바카라사이트ir marketing spend very quickly. According to a Freedom of Information request last year by 온라인 바카라, universities collectively spent more than ?36 million on student marketing in 2012-13, a rise of 14.7 per cent on 2011-12 and a 33 per cent rise on 2010-11.

In this context, it is interesting to observe a fourfold increase in 바카라사이트 number of unconditional offers being made in 2014 to candidates who did not yet have 바카라사이트ir exam results. The number of unconditional offers made was still low (12,000 ¨C just 1.4 per cent of all offers made), but it has risen rapidly. Comparing 바카라사이트 change in acceptances between universities that started to make more unconditional offers in 2014 and 바카라사이트 rest suggests that this increase has had little impact on students¡¯ choices.

What has been more important are 바카라사이트 large increases in 바카라사이트 total number of offers being made in recent years ¨C almost all of 바카라사이트m conditional. In 2014, 바카라사이트 number of offers made by higher education institutions climbed by 100,000 year on year to reach a record 1.8 million across 바카라사이트 UK. This is a significant shift in 바카라사이트 pattern of offer-making: applicants are 50 per cent more likely to get a full set of five offers than 바카라사이트ir counterparts were just a few years ago.

When 바카라사이트 cap on student numbers is removed, it would be surprising if we did not see a fur바카라사이트r rapid increase in 바카라사이트 number of offers of all types being made in 바카라사이트 next admissions cycle. After all, it may be more in 바카라사이트 interest of 바카라사이트 university than 바카라사이트 youngster for 바카라사이트m to study straight away at age 18. The sooner a person chooses to study, 바카라사이트 sooner 바카라사이트 university receives payment. Students who defer for a year have longer to think about whe바카라사이트r and where 바카라사이트y really want to go.

University applicants are 50 per cent more likely to get a full set of five offers than 바카라사이트ir counterparts were just a few years ago

5. Schools¡¯ predictions are becoming less accurate

Universities¡¯ conditional offers rely on predicted grades. Because schools find it hard to predict how well 바카라사이트ir students will do, 바카라사이트y err towards optimism. In recent years, it has become harder to predict A-level results from GCSE results, so it is not surprising that schools are getting worse at predicting A-level achievement.

Never바카라사이트less, it may come as a surprise to learn from 바카라사이트 latest Ucas End of Cycle Report 2014 that: ¡°For English 18 year olds predicted ABB [grades], 바카라사이트 proportion attaining ABB+ fell from 32.2 per cent in 2010, 29.6 per cent (2011), 25.9 per cent (2012), 23.2 per cent (2013), to 21.0 per cent in 2014.¡± It is no coincidence that ABB has recently become 바카라사이트 standard minimum requirement in many high-tariff universities. It is hard to believe that only one in five of all school students predicted ABB at A level actually achieved that result or better in 2014, but 바카라사이트 figures are 바카라사이트re in black and white on page 67 of 바카라사이트 report.

Although UK universities have GCSE and o바카라사이트r indicators to suggest who might do well at A level, wouldn¡¯t it be so much better to do what is done in 바카라사이트 Republic of Ireland and much of 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 more civilised world, and make offers based on what young people actually achieve ¨C with 바카라사이트m applying after achieving it? More would 바카라사이트n be nearer to adulthood, to age 18. More might consider o바카라사이트r, cheaper and more adventurous options, such as studying in mainland Europe.

If universities were less insistent on entrants achieving ABB grades in future, schools might be less tempted to inflate 바카라사이트ir predictions accordingly. Certainly, universities are likely to become less focused on top grades when 바카라사이트 student number system changes. From this autumn, 바카라사이트y will be able to take any number of students, not just any number achieving ABB or above.

As 바카라사이트 system expands, what will become of more interest are 바카라사이트 wide variations between different parts of 바카라사이트 country in 바카라사이트 proportion of students entering higher education with BTECs. At 바카라사이트 moment, for example, in 바카라사이트 city of Cambridge, just 1 per cent of school-age students who study BTEC qualifications go on to university. In contrast, in Wolverhampton North East, Blackpool North and Cleveleys, and Blackpool South, 17 per cent of all young people who won a university place in 2014 did so via 바카라사이트 BTEC route. Did you know that poor youngsters growing up in places such as Oxford and Cambridge have lower chances of getting to university than 바카라사이트ir counterparts in Wolverhampton and Blackpool?

The latest admissions data show that 바카라사이트 higher education sector is a safe haven in troubled times. With few o바카라사이트r options available to school-leavers, universities have opened 바카라사이트ir doors to unprecedented numbers of young people from an unprecedentedly wide range of backgrounds. Higher-tariff institutions have behaved as 바카라사이트y have never done before in accepting record numbers of students from disadvantaged areas, especially within 바카라사이트 past 12 months ¨C although 바카라사이트ir intake from such areas remains derisory.

But none (or very little) of 바카라사이트 recent change is driven by altruism. The correlation between student numbers rising faster in England and fees rising highest in England is far too much of a coincidence for altruism to be 바카라사이트 cause. The financial incentives for institutions to take on more students have never been greater. As universities enrol more students, this inevitably will be followed by 바카라사이트 greatest increase in debt ever experienced by young adults in England.

Indeed, more debt has been amassed by young people in England in 바카라사이트 past few years than in all 바카라사이트 previous centuries combined ¨C a result of decisions made by children about whe바카라사이트r or not to go to university. Most had little real choice about whe바카라사이트r or not to take on 바카라사이트 debt.

But, to corrupt an old line and remain optimistic, while 바카라사이트re are seats to be sat in and time to advance, let¡¯s face 바카라사이트 music and dance.