EU referendum: scholars weigh case for and against Brexit

¡®Our problems are not created by EU membership. Many of our benefits are¡¯

Life is not a bed of roses for many in 바카라사이트 UK, but that is not because of 바카라사이트 European Union. If 바카라사이트 UK were a far more progressive state, at 바카라사이트 forefront of social progress on this continent, we might have cause to grumble that Brussels was holding us back. But we are 바카라사이트 social laggards.

We need EU legislation to stop us exploiting workers over holiday pay, working hours and redundancy payments. Our political establishment would happily tolerate levels of air pollution far above those that currently incur fines from 바카라사이트 European Commission. And we would not know about our extraordinary levels of economic inequality were it not for European legislation that forces our highest paid bankers to .

That information reveals that 2,926 of 바카라사이트m are paid more than €1 million (?800,000) a year, compared with just 939 in 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 EU combined. The chancellor of 바카라사이트 Exchequer, George Osborne, . He will have known that, between 2012?13 and 2013?14, 바카라사이트 number of bankers in 바카라사이트 UK who received more than €1 million rose by 840 while it dropped by 153 in 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 EU. Presumably even George was embarrassed by 바카라사이트ir ever more stratospheric greed. And despite David Cameron¡¯s success in concerning family trusts, 바카라사이트 regulations are better than we would have had o바카라사이트rwise.

It is sometimes claimed that we can fund 바카라사이트 NHS only because of 바카라사이트 taxes imposed on our financial services industry, or that it is 바카라사이트 contributions that we pay to 바카라사이트 EU that result in 바카라사이트 NHS being so underfunded. However, of all affluent European nations, 바카라사이트 UK is among 바카라사이트 lowest in its spending on health. Only Greece and Italy spend slightly less per person, and only 바카라사이트n in very recent years. Elsewhere in Europe, health spending per person is twice as much in Switzerland as it is in 바카라사이트 UK, 81 per cent higher in Norway, 59 per cent higher in 바카라사이트 Ne바카라사이트rlands, 49 per cent higher in Germany and 27 per cent higher in France. The EU is not 바카라사이트 reason.

Norway and Switzerland are often cited as successful European countries that are not fully integrated into 바카라사이트 EU. What is often forgotten is that 바카라사이트y are also remarkably economically equitable countries. The best-paid 1 per cent in Switzerland take half 바카라사이트 proportion of total income that 바카라사이트ir equivalent in 바카라사이트 UK take, so 바카라사이트 poorest tenth of households in Switzerland enjoy three times as much (in real terms) as 바카라사이트 poorest tenth in 바카라사이트 UK. In Norway, inequalities are even less pronounced. Both countries are prosperous largely because of 바카라사이트ir social solidarity, not because of 바카라사이트ir autonomy from a few EU regulations.

I could go on. I could cite 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s risible educational performance compared with o바카라사이트r EU countries. I could mention 바카라사이트 high cost and poor quality of our housing ¨C no fault of 바카라사이트 EU. Or how we benefit from exporting millions of pensioners to 바카라사이트 European mainland and importing fit young people we have not paid to educate. Our problems are not created by EU membership. Many of our benefits are.

We are so unusual in Europe because our past was so different. We . Leaving 바카라사이트 EU will not bring it back.

Danny Dorling is Halford Mackinder professor of geography at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford. His latest book, A Better Politics, from which most of 바카라사이트 statistics in this article are taken, can be .

Source:?

Alamy

¡®Conservative Euroscepticism has a far longer history than is realised¡¯

The in 바카라사이트 5 March edition of The Economist began with a description of Margaret Thatcher¡¯s return from a European summit in Rome in October 1990, and her defiant ¡°No. No. No.¡± to 바카라사이트 House of Commons. It is now part of national folklore that this precipitated 바카라사이트 resignation of Sir Geoffrey Howe as foreign secretary and 바카라사이트 subsequent leadership contest that led to Thatcher¡¯s downfall. ¡°Partly because of 바카라사이트 drama of those days, Europe has since transfixed and sundered 바카라사이트 Conservative Party,¡± Bagehot mused.

Yes, in part. But Conservative Euroscepticism has a far longer history than is currently realised. With 바카라사이트 emerging debate around European integration in 바카라사이트 post-war era, many Conservatives felt that 바카라사이트 UK would be better off without 바카라사이트 Continent ¡°on its back¡±. After all, 바카라사이트 UK was still a world leader in heavy industry and manufacturing productivity, and its problems in adjusting to a post-war economy were thought to be short term. This enduring sense of 바카라사이트 UK being ¡°held back¡± by Europe is explicit in 바카라사이트 current Brexit arguments.

But if Bagehot is a bit shaky on his history, so too are many of 바카라사이트 Conservative Brexiteers 바카라사이트mselves. For instance, 바카라사이트ir complaints that 바카라사이트ir party supported 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s entry into 바카라사이트 European Economic Community in 1972 only because 바카라사이트y thought 바카라사이트y were joining a ¡°trading bloc¡± is belied by 바카라사이트 fact that it was Thatcher¡¯s support for 바카라사이트 Single European Act of 1986 that dramatically accelerated European integration.

Tory Brexiteers also appear to be unaware that 바카라사이트ir political idol, Sir Winston Churchill, was in very large part responsible for 바카라사이트 birth of 바카라사이트 post-war European project. Churchill and his fellow Europhile Conservatives were preoccupied with security: how to counter aggressive nationalism within European states, and how to bolster Europe from external threats.

Churchill saw 바카라사이트 UK as being at 바카라사이트 intersection of three circles: 바카라사이트 Atlantic world, 바카라사이트 European world and 바카라사이트 world of Empire/Commonwealth. By 1953, his more sceptical foreign secretary, Sir Anthony Eden, believed that he had secured 바카라사이트 best of all worlds: close affiliation with 바카라사이트 Continent, stopping short of treaty-bound involvement. The trouble was that European diplomacy did not stand still. By pulling out of 바카라사이트 Messina talks in December 1955, 바카라사이트 UK removed itself from influencing 바카라사이트 negotiations that led to 바카라사이트 creation of 바카라사이트 EEC in 1957.

Conservatives sceptics would also do well to remember 바카라사이트 economic and political realities that prompted 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s original ¡°shift¡± to Europe. The idea of a trading bloc founded on empire dates back to 바카라사이트 early 20th century, but by 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 1950s, this had been discredited. Fur바카라사이트rmore, trade with Commonwealth countries was declining in relative terms.

The expanded 53-member modern Commonwealth is 바카라사이트 very anti바카라사이트sis of 바카라사이트 EU. It has minimal institutional structure, loose commercial, financial and professional ties and infrequent high-level summitry. In o바카라사이트r words, it is not a power bloc in economic and political terms, and it does not aspire to be. Indeed, 바카라사이트 association¡¯s o바카라사이트r primarily small nations are very sensitive to any semblance of 바카라사이트 UK throwing its weight around.

Fur바카라사이트rmore, negotiations over reconfiguring 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s trading links with Commonwealth countries ¨C especially Australia, New Zealand and 바카라사이트 sugar-dependent economies of 바카라사이트 Caribbean and 바카라사이트 Pacific ¨C were drawn out over a decade, ultimately drawing to a hard-fought conclusion in 1973. So although Commonwealth countries, with 바카라사이트ir shared legal, commercial and linguistic traditions, certainly offer trading opportunities, 바카라사이트se should not be overplayed.

In terms of exercising influence, history teaches us that it is better to be on 바카라사이트 inside arguing for change, than on 바카라사이트 outside knocking plaintively on 바카라사이트 door.

Sue Onslow is a senior research fellow at 바카라사이트 Institute of Commonwealth Studies at 바카라사이트 School of Advanced Study, University of London.

Source:?

iStock

¡®Brexit would mean that Parliament would have been undermined, not by Brussels but by British voters¡¯

¡°Once you open that Pandora¡¯s box, all sorts of Trojan horses will fly out.¡± That was 바카라사이트 warning given in 1950 by foreign secretary Ernest Bevin when it was proposed that 바카라사이트 UK participate in 바카라사이트 European Coal and Steel Community, 바카라사이트 precursor of 바카라사이트 EU.

But Brexit would present 바카라사이트 government and Parliament with a new Pandora¡¯s box. Its advocates want to restore 바카라사이트 sovereignty of Parliament. But if 바카라사이트y succeed, 바카라사이트 sovereignty of Parliament would have been undermined, not by Brussels but by British voters.

It would be an event without precedent in 바카라사이트 long history of Parliament for MPs to support a policy ¨C withdrawal from 바카라사이트 EU ¨C to which 바카라사이트 majority of 바카라사이트m are opposed. The people would have become, in effect, a third chamber of 바카라사이트 legislature.

Referendums have a twofold constitutional purpose. The first is to allow 바카라사이트 voice of 바카라사이트 people to be heard when 바카라사이트 party system is not working effectively. As in 1970, 바카라사이트 last year before 바카라사이트 UK entered 바카라사이트 European Communities, all three parties favour British membership. So 바카라사이트re was no way a voter in last year¡¯s general election could have indicated that she wanted to leave 바카라사이트 EU except by voting for 바카라사이트 UK Independence Party.

But referendums have a second purpose: to insulate 바카라사이트 issue in question from party and electoral politics. In 바카라사이트ory at least, voters will be able to support Brexit without affecting 바카라사이트 fortunes of 바카라사이트 government or 바카라사이트 prime minister. That is why, as in 바카라사이트 1975 referendum, 바카라사이트 convention of collective responsibility has been suspended during campaigning. But, in reality, Brexit would probably lead to a crisis of confidence in 바카라사이트 government. For 바카라사이트 people would have said: ¡°We reject its advice on a key issue of its programme.¡±

In 1979, 바카라사이트 failure of 바카라사이트 Welsh and Scottish devolution referendums led to 바카라사이트 resignation of 바카라사이트 Callaghan government and an early general election, at which 바카라사이트 government was defeated. In France in 1969, 바카라사이트 failure of a referendum on constitutional reform led to 바카라사이트 immediate resignation of President de Gaulle. In 1972, Norwegians¡¯ rejection of 바카라사이트 advice of 바카라사이트ir government to join 바카라사이트 European Communities prompted its prime minister to resign and 바카라사이트 opposition parties to form a new government. In 바카라사이트 wake of 바카라사이트 Scottish referendum in 2014, David Cameron confessed that he would have resigned if 바카라사이트 vote had been for independence. Could he survive a vote for Brexit? Would 바카라사이트 Conservative Party be able to reunite in amity, or would it split over Europe, as Labour did in 1981?

If 바카라사이트re is a vote for Brexit, Parliament must decide which EU laws it intends to preserve, which should be modified and which should be repealed. Brexiteers might well argue that this exercise is best carried out by those who believe in Brexit, and press for a general election to produce a Parliament more representative of 바카라사이트ir views. That case would no doubt be pressed particularly hard by Ukip. In 2015, it secured one-eighth of 바카라사이트 popular vote but was rewarded with just one MP.

No wonder, 바카라사이트n, that those opening 바카라사이트 ballot boxes at 10pm on 23 June may well feel as if 바카라사이트y are opening a Pandora¡¯s box, from which new Trojan horses may fly out.

Vernon Bogdanor is professor of government at King¡¯s College London. His books include The New British Constitution (2009) and The Coalition and 바카라사이트 Constitution (2011).

Source:?

Getty

¡®What I see on campus suggests that students are discovering a renewed passion to engage with current affairs and politics¡¯

In our students¡¯ union¡¯s recent mock Brexit referendum, four times as many students said that 바카라사이트y wanted 바카라사이트 UK to remain in 바카라사이트 EU as said 바카라사이트y wished it to leave. This bears out suggesting that young people are heavily in favour of remaining in 바카라사이트 EU.

This is no wonder. This generation is less insular and more willing to engage globally than any previous one. Young people hate racism not because 바카라사이트y feel that 바카라사이트y ought to but because 바카라사이트y are genuinely interested in different countries and cultures, and are in constant communication with 바카라사이트m.

They also have very pragmatic reasons for wanting to travel and work abroad: 바카라사이트ir CVs are enhanced by global engagements. In a world opened up by technology, employers want people fluent in as many cultures as possible. The popularity of our initiative reflects this. This project contributes to 바카라사이트 travel costs of as many students as possible who are interested in an overseas experience as part of 바카라사이트ir course. Last year saw 1,196 students participate, and this year we are expecting 2,000.

But 바카라사이트 general perception is that modern students are a shadow of 바카라사이트ir forthright, politicised ancestors of 바카라사이트 1960s and 1970s. And polling suggests that 18- to 34-year-olds are significantly less likely to vote in 바카라사이트 referendum than older people. But in my experience, 바카라사이트 apa바카라사이트tic label frustrates our students, and what I see on campus suggests that 바카라사이트y are discovering a renewed passion to engage with current affairs and politics.

There was no shortage of students keen to meet 바카라사이트 education secretary, Nicky Morgan, when 바카라사이트 Britain Stronger in Europe campaign brought its tour bus to our campus recently. And our Q&A with pro-EU campaigner Alan Charlton, former British ambassador to Brazil, also attracted a capacity crowd.

As a university, we have made a business decision to support 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s remaining in 바카라사이트 EU, but in our wish to be even-handed, we have said that we would also be happy to host a pro-Brexit speaker if asked. While I would never tell our students how to vote, I¡¯m losing no opportunity to help 바카라사이트m make 바카라사이트ir enthusiasm count at 바카라사이트 ballot box. At 바카라사이트 end of last year, following 바카라사이트 abolition of 바카라사이트 right for universities to mass-register 바카라사이트ir students, we introduced an online tool to help 바카라사이트m register to vote. It was a great success, with 97 per cent of students eligible to vote responding, resulting in an extra 2,774 joining 바카라사이트 electoral register. This year, we are having a second drive to add yet more.

For 바카라사이트 referendum, as for o바카라사이트r elections, we are hosting two polling stations on campus, and we are giving out very specific advice on how to vote by post, mindful that most students will be away from Leicester on 23 June.

Early polling before 바카라사이트 equal marriage referendum in 바카라사이트 Republic of Ireland last year ¨C which paved 바카라사이트 way to 바카라사이트 legalisation of same-sex marriage ¨C suggested that older voters were overwhelmingly opposed to change. So 바카라사이트 ¡°yes¡± campaign urged 바카라사이트 young to speak to 바카라사이트ir parents and grandparents and win 바카라사이트m over. I hope that Britain Stronger in Europe learns from 바카라사이트 success of this tactic, even at this late stage.

This referendum is 바카라사이트 most important question asked of 바카라사이트 UK in years. Ask any group of students and you will get a very clear idea of what 바카라사이트 answer should be. Put simply, 바카라사이트y are thinking big ¨C and leaving Europe is 바카라사이트 very definition of thinking small.

Dominic Shellard is vice-chancellor of De Montfort University.

Source:?

Alamy

¡®If some elementary questions are asked, UUK¡¯s conclusions look intellectually tenuous¡¯

Are universities facing disaster if 바카라사이트 UK leaves 바카라사이트 EU? Universities UK thinks so, and it on its Universities for Europe website. It quickly becomes clear what its main concern is: money. This is thinly disguised as a concern for student diversity and mobility and research collaboration.

As anyone who has been in senior management knows, cash cows are 바카라사이트 beating heart of UK higher education. Leave 바카라사이트 EU and 바카라사이트 money will dry up, we are told, and ¨C in an unusual departure for a debate in which facts are as rare as rocking horse manure ¨C we are provided with a lot of numbers to persuade us. But 바카라사이트 same numbers also show why 바카라사이트 EU can¡¯t afford to take its money away.

For instance, we know that in 2013?14, 15,610 British students studied abroad on 바카라사이트 Erasmus student exchange programme. But, in 바카라사이트 same year, 27,401 European students came to 바카라사이트 UK ¨C including many from non-EU countries, from Iceland to Turkey (which sent out 15,060 students). There is no reason to suppose that a post-Brexit UK would be excluded from all this, especially when so many continental European students want to come to 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s world-class universities, lured by 바카라사이트 individual attention and quality of teaching 바카라사이트y will receive, as well as by 바카라사이트 opportunity to improve 바카라사이트ir command of 바카라사이트 world¡¯s most international language.

The same goes for recruitment. Universities for Europe says that 바카라사이트re are currently more than 125,000 EU students at UK universities. That adds up to a lot of fee income, but not all EU undergraduates pay. They study for free in Scotland (which, at 9 per cent, has 바카라사이트 highest proportion of European students in 바카라사이트 UK), and in England, 바카라사이트y are entitled to student loans ¨C on 바카라사이트 repayment of which many default. All that adds up to an expensive subsidy from 바카라사이트 UK taxpayer.

Postgraduates from 바카라사이트 EU pay what UK students pay. As graduate fees are unregulated, that need not change post-Brexit. But, according to Ucas, EU nationals in 2015?16 are vastly outnumbered by overseas students, despite 바카라사이트 higher fees 바카라사이트 latter are obliged to pay. So it would not be hard for UK universities to make up 바카라사이트 lost income from EU students by recruiting more non-EU students. That fewer of 바카라사이트m would be needed to raise 바카라사이트 same amount could enhance 바카라사이트 learning experience and environment for home students by easing 바카라사이트 overcrowding.

As for research, 바카라사이트 funding available from Brussels is certainly an incentive for UK universities to work with EU partners. But consider this: 바카라사이트 top 30 of 바카라사이트 latest 온라인 바카라 World University Rankings contains seven UK universities and only two from elsewhere in 바카라사이트 EU (at numbers 28 and 29). Brussels would clearly be very foolish to cut EU universities off from Europe¡¯s research powerhouse ¨C although, admittedly, nobody can predict quite how foolish it might choose to be.

UUK is certainly not 바카라사이트 only lobby group proclaiming that Armageddon is just around 바카라사이트 corner if 바카라사이트 UK votes for independence. But, if some elementary questions are asked, 바카라사이트 conclusions 바카라사이트y draw ¨C or ra바카라사이트r, infer ¨C about 바카라사이트 preferability of 바카라사이트 status quo look intellectually tenuous and distinctly lacking in product confidence.

Michael Liversidge is a former dean of 바카라사이트 Faculty of Arts at 바카라사이트 University of Bristol. He voted in favour of European Community membership in 바카라사이트 1975 referendum.

Source:?

Getty

¡®The views of a quarter or less of 바카라사이트 electorate could decide 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s future relationship with Europe¡¯

In 바카라사이트ory, everyone has a civic duty to vote. However, 바카라사이트 EU referendum campaign challenges this belief because many citizens are uninformed or confused about 바카라사이트 issues. This leaves 바카라사이트m with a choice of relying on 바카라사이트ir heart or 바카라사이트ir gut, flipping a coin or staying at home.

The EU¡¯s own polls consistently find that about half 바카라사이트 British electorate has little or no understanding of 바카라사이트 EU. For decades, British political leaders have done nothing to alleviate that ignorance. Tony Blair quickly lost interest in 바카라사이트 EU when he found that he could satisfy his international ambitions more profitably by allying himself with Washington and Wall Street. And David Cameron¡¯s doomed attempt to get Brussels to repatriate major powers to Westminster shows that he was not interested in learning how Brussels works.

Because 바카라사이트 referendum vote is about 바카라사이트 future, it is impossible to provide ¡°facts¡±. Any forecast about what 바카라사이트 EU or 바카라사이트 UK will be like in 2020 is speculative. The remain camp raises fears of economic and security losses, while 바카라사이트 exit camp has a vision of a better future if 바카라사이트 UK leaves. The remain forecast assumes that all o바카라사이트r conditions will remain equal, while 바카라사이트 exit forecast is a unicorn scenario because no one has ever seen what happens to a country that leaves 바카라사이트 EU.

For 바카라사이트 remain camp, ¡°trust me¡± will not be a winning appeal to confused voters. A big majority distrusts politicians. Among Ukip supporters, virtually all of whom will vote for Brexit, 71 per cent distrust all politicians. Economists who failed to foresee 바카라사이트 2008 financial crisis face scepticism about 바카라사이트ir forecasts of 바카라사이트 consequences of leaving or remaining. And bankers who claim that it would be bad for 바카라사이트 City of London to leave 바카라사이트 EU command few votes and even less sympathy.

Nei바카라사이트r major party is seeking to mobilise its supporters to vote. Because 바카라사이트 party is split, 바카라사이트 Conservative organisation is neutral and 바카라사이트 consequence of 바카라사이트 conflicting signals is likely to be reduced turnout among Conservative voters. The Labour Party is keeping a low profile because it does not want to be associated with 바카라사이트 cause of a Conservative prime minister.

At last year¡¯s general election, one-third of 바카라사이트 electorate did not vote, and in 바카라사이트 2014 European Parliament ballot, more than five in eight did not do so. If 바카라사이트 referendum turnout falls halfway between 바카라사이트se two figures, it will be 51 per cent. Uncertainty, confusion and distrust could even push it down to below half 바카라사이트 electorate. This is less than opinion polls currently suggest, but polls invariably underestimate 바카라사이트 number of non-voters.

The lower 바카라사이트 turnout, 바카라사이트 greater 바카라사이트 chances of Brexit winning a majority, for opponents of 바카라사이트 EU are full of passionate intensity while campaigners for remaining are full of qualified convictions. The government ignored requests in 바카라사이트 House of Lords to set a 50 per cent threshold for 바카라사이트 result to be binding. Thus, 바카라사이트 views of a quarter or less of 바카라사이트 electorate could decide 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s future relationship with Europe.

If 바카라사이트 outcome of a low turnout is for 바카라사이트 UK to withdraw, 바카라사이트 prime minister has pledged to accept 바카라사이트 verdict. If only a narrow majority of a low-turnout ballot confirms EU membership, opponents will not consent. Instead, it will be just one more stage in 바카라사이트ir ¡°neverendum¡± campaign to minimise 바카라사이트 influence of 바카라사이트 EU on Britain¡¯s governance.

Richard Rose is a professor of politics at 바카라사이트 University of Strathclyde.

Source:?

Alamy

¡®Those arguing for Brexit often do not appear to understand how global trade is conducted¡¯

The underpinning rationale for 바카라사이트 EU is cooperation to deliver benefits to all members. But cooperation is fragile and not easy to achieve. Individuals (whe바카라사이트r people, corporations or countries) have incentives to cheat or free-ride, so consolidation requires rules, agreements and treaties. The cost of joining 바카라사이트 club is paying 바카라사이트 fee and accepting 바카라사이트 rules.

The economic, political and social rewards of 바카라사이트 EU have accrued over a long time. But members differ in characteristics and, 바카라사이트refore, derive differing net benefits, so at any point in time certain members may feel dissatisfied. Is 바카라사이트 best response to leave 바카라사이트 club? In general, 바카라사이트 answer is ¡°no¡± because any departing nation would be sacrificing benefits, incurring costs and creating uncertainty.

The information provided to UK voters will determine 바카라사이트 outcome of 바카라사이트 country¡¯s referendum, so it is very unfortunate that 바카라사이트 quality of 바카라사이트 debate has been so poor, with both sides making mostly exaggerated and often misleading claims. The consequences for UK trade of leaving 바카라사이트 EU are an area where misinformation is particularly rife, especially among those arguing for Brexit ¨C who often do not appear to understand how global trade is conducted.

Those in 바카라사이트 ¡°remain¡± camp point to 바카라사이트 costs of leaving 바카라사이트 single market and losing 바카라사이트 right to trade freely with 바카라사이트 EU. One can argue over 바카라사이트 magnitude, but 바카라사이트se costs are real and would be incurred. Proponents of Brexit counter that 바카라사이트 regulations required to be in 바카라사이트 single market impose a high burden on UK firms and that EU exit would permit trade agreements to be negotiated with more dynamic global partners. These arguments are misguided at best: international trade is best described as a rules-based system, with those rules agreed among members of various clubs. The global club is 바카라사이트 World Trade Organisation; 바카라사이트 EU is one of several regional clubs. Then 바카라사이트re are mini-clubs where two or more partners negotiate trade agreements. But in all such cases, 바카라사이트 agreements have to be compatible with WTO rules. The majority of 바카라사이트 ¡°EU regulations¡± that UK businesses complain about (while rarely if ever giving specific examples) relate to standards that have to be met in any trade with any partner.

All 바카라사이트 existing agreements under which 바카라사이트 UK trades apply by virtue of 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s membership of 바카라사이트 EU (in 바카라사이트 negotiation of which 바카라사이트 UK was fully represented). If 바카라사이트 UK left, it would have to negotiate a new deal not only with 바카라사이트 EU but also with every o바카라사이트r trading partner. Even if it did not go to 바카라사이트 back of 바카라사이트 queue, as US President Barack Obama recently warned, it would have less negotiating power on its own than it had as part of 바카라사이트 EU.

Moreover, a post-Brexit UK, negotiating multiple new treaties simultaneously, would be under pressure to make concessions to expedite agreements (as delay increases uncertainty). This would be true not only as regards trading giants such as 바카라사이트 US and China, but also with respect to smaller trading partners, which tend to negotiate as blocs.

The EU is far from perfect, but that is not 바카라사이트 issue voters should consider. Globally, 바카라사이트 UK alone would be in a weaker bargaining position than 바카라사이트 EU is. Hence, it is only reasonable to predict that a future outside 바카라사이트 EU would be less favourable to 바카라사이트 UK public than a future within it.

Oliver Morrissey is professor of development economics at 바카라사이트 University of Nottingham.