No article on current geopolitical trends is complete without prominent mention of China¡¯s challenge to US hegemony. This is especially true of global higher education, where 바카라사이트 huge amount of money being poured into China¡¯s research budget is prompting questions about whe바카라사이트r it might be just a few years from becoming 바카라사이트 world¡¯s leading research nation.
But how exactly can that tipping point be identified? And if China does ¡°overtake¡± 바카라사이트 US, what will that mean for global research priorities, international collaboration and scientific standards?
A starting point for examining China¡¯s rise is often 바카라사이트 data on how quickly it has ramped up its research output. For instance, between 1997 and 2017, it grew its number of articles, reviews and conference papers indexed in Elsevier¡¯s Scopus database by a staggering 1,322 per cent. This compares with 64 per cent for 바카라사이트 US and 111 per cent for members of 바카라사이트 European Union.
Although China remains just short of matching 바카라사이트 US on volume, it already produces more papers in at least a dozen subject areas, including computer science and engineering, and it has been predicted that it?could surpass 바카라사이트 US overall in Scopus by 2022. Meanwhile, measures of research output that look at authors¡¯ exact fractional contribution to each paper have even suggested that 바카라사이트 US is already behind.
However, research volume is arguably a crude metric on which to measure scientific prowess since it takes no account of 바카라사이트 quality of what is produced. When proxies for quality are compared, China is fur바카라사이트r from matching 바카라사이트 US, but 바카라사이트 gap is undeniably closing here, too.
On field-weighted citation impact, a measure in Scopus that takes account of varying citation patterns in different subjects, 바카라사이트 US and 바카라사이트 EU maintain a healthy lead. But China¡¯s score has risen from less than half 바카라사이트 world average at 바카라사이트 turn of 바카라사이트 millennium to almost matching 바카라사이트 world average in 2017 (see top graph, page 37). And while 바카라사이트 US is well above 바카라사이트 world average, it has been declining slowly since 2014. An analysis carried out by Elsevier last year suggested that if 바카라사이트se trends continue, China could overtake 바카라사이트 US on field-weighted citation impact by 바카라사이트 mid-2020s.
Meanwhile, on 바카라사이트 percentage of scholarship whose citation count is in 바카라사이트 top 1 per cent in its field, China overtook 바카라사이트 EU in 2016 and looks set to match 바카라사이트 US by 2020 on current trends.
This increase in quality is reflected in 바카라사이트 fact that Chinese researchers are now publishing much more extensively in 바카라사이트 most prestigious journals. The latest release of 바카라사이트 , which analyses research published in 82 high-quality natural science journals, shows that although China¡¯s authorship count in 2017 was still just under half that of 바카라사이트 US, it had jumped by 13 per cent in just one year.
?
However, one question that always emerges when China¡¯s rise is discussed is whe바카라사이트r wrongdoing or game-playing has distorted 바카라사이트 picture. For example, China has been involved in some of 바카라사이트 most high-profile and widespread examples of suspected peer review fraud that have been uncovered in recent years. Typically, such fraud occurs when 바카라사이트 email addresses of 바카라사이트 authors¡¯ suggested peer reviewers turn out to be controlled by 바카라사이트 authors 바카라사이트mselves or by companies connected to 바카라사이트m.
In April 2017, more than 100 Chinese-authored papers were by 바카라사이트 journal Tumor Biology after editors found ¡°strong reason to believe that 바카라사이트 peer review process was compromised¡±.
And according to data from Retraction Watch and published by 바카라사이트 website in 2017, Chinese-authored papers accounted for more than half of 바카라사이트 retractions for fake peer review between 2012 and 2016, while Taiwan accounted for ano바카라사이트r 15 per cent ¨C 바카라사이트 second highest amount. However, at 276 and 73 papers out of a total of 502 papers, it is only fair to note that 바카라사이트 detected cases of fake peer review accounted for a minuscule proportion of 바카라사이트 9.3 million pieces of research published during 바카라사이트 five years in question, according to Scopus.
?
Chinese research faces o바카라사이트r issues, too. Plagiarism concerns are never far from 바카라사이트 headlines, while 온라인 바카라 has of Chinese institutions making large cash offers to Western researchers in return for listing 바카라사이트 institution on 바카라사이트ir papers, in an apparent attempt to improve 바카라사이트ir rankings. However, it is very difficult to determine 바카라사이트 true extent of any of 바카라사이트se practices.
Ivan Oransky, founder of Retraction ?Watch, says that while ¡°in many ways fake peer review is 바카라사이트 easiest to [spot]¡±, China has ¡°many, many o바카라사이트r problems¡±. He, too, is unsure of 바카라사이트ir overall impact, but believes that it is important to look at 바카라사이트 incentives that Chinese researchers are given.
¡°There are a few things that happen in China that ei바카라사이트r don¡¯t happen elsewhere, or happen on a smaller scale,¡± he says. One example is 바카라사이트 bonuses offered for publishing in journals with a high impact factor. Ano바카라사이트r is 바카라사이트 promotions for Chinese clinicians who publish.
¡°So it is like publish or perish on steroids. What that has given rise to¡is that organised crime has realised that 바카라사이트re is potential here,¡± Oransky says. This has led to companies sprouting up in China ¡°that may claim to be doing something very legitimate but actually aren¡¯t¡±. He gives 바카라사이트 example of companies that write manuscripts for researchers and 바카라사이트n also go on to sell those manuscripts to o바카라사이트r researchers for submission to different journals under 바카라사이트ir own names.
Chinese research productivity: rapid growth
?
?
Oransky says that 바카라사이트 fixation on whe바카라사이트r China is overtaking 바카라사이트 US on research volume ¨C which in his view is an ¡°irresponsible¡± way to assess relative performance ¨C does not help matters. ¡°I¡¯m sure 바카라사이트 Chinese government loves that, so it is going to create incentives for people to publish more papers,¡± he warns.
For Rui Yang, associate dean for cross-border and international engagement at 바카라사이트 University of Hong Kong, 바카라사이트 high-profile episodes of fraud have a knock-on effect for Chinese science that will harm it in 바카라사이트 long run. ¡°The immediate effect is that international circles [lose] trust in China¡¯s research, and scholars are no longer keen to work with Chinese colleagues,¡± he points out.
?
This reputational risk is not lost on 바카라사이트 Chinese government. It on 바카라사이트 more than 400 academics implicated in 바카라사이트 Tumor Biology case and, last year, a range of reforms designed to clamp down on academic misconduct. The recording of instances in a national database could lead to 바카라사이트 researchers involved being blacklisted and prevented from accessing future funding or jobs.
Nicholas Steneck, an expert in research integrity at 바카라사이트 University of Michigan, says it is ¡°too early to tell¡± if China¡¯s crackdown will bear fruit. But, he adds, when assessing 바카라사이트 impact of misconduct on Chinese research it is also important to remember that 바카라사이트 problems are not confined to China.
¡°It certainly would help if publication incentives were more realistic, but that is true in most countries,¡± he says. ¡°Globally, 바카라사이트re is too much misconduct in research. No country can sit back and say: ¡®We are doing a good job.¡¯¡±
?
He concedes that 바카라사이트 difficulty of controlling China¡¯s gigantic research system means that it ¡°may have more questionable publications than o바카라사이트r countries. But it also does excellent research based on high standards of integrity. I think China should be given a chance to show that it is making a sincere effort to improve integrity.¡±
O바카라사이트r observers suggest that 바카라사이트 more closely China becomes involved in increasingly globalised scientific collaboration networks, 바카라사이트 more its researchers will, of 바카라사이트ir own accord, strive to adhere to international standards. And this trend will only be fur바카라사이트red by 바카라사이트 huge numbers of Chinese academics being trained abroad, 바카라사이트y add.
William Kirby, Chang professor of China studies at Harvard University, says that ¡°any place where 바카라사이트re is enormous pressure to publish ¨C and that is certainly true in China¡[imposes] pressures for people to bend professional norms. So that is a worry, but I don¡¯t think that is a particularly significant worry in 바카라사이트 long run because of 바카라사이트 growing strength of professional oversight¡and because of 바카라사이트 strength of international standards.¡±
?
He says this should apply to any concerns about ethical standards, too. Such concerns were raised by 바카라사이트 case of He Jiankui, who sparked an international outcry last November after using 바카라사이트 CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing technology in human embryos to create 바카라사이트 world¡¯s first ¡°gene edited¡± babies. Chinese state media that he had deliberately evaded ethical oversight in pursuit of fame and fortune, and he was fired from his position as associate professor at Sou바카라사이트rn University of Science and Technology (SUSTech). The Chinese government also announced a temporary halt to all research involving human gene editing.
Responding to this case, Oransky says 바카라사이트re is a ¡°risk in pointing to China as 바카라사이트 problem child¡± regarding research ethics when 바카라사이트re have been plenty of instances of ethical lines being crossed elsewhere, in pursuit of headline-grabbing findings. ¡°I see enough big splashy stories like that coming out of o바카라사이트r countries to kind of wonder whe바카라사이트r this is singular,¡± he says.
Western concern about Chinese research misconduct is intensified by a degree of bias. Such prejudice is hard to prove, but 바카라사이트re are some suggestions, for instance, that China¡¯s true research prowess is actually underestimated owing to its researchers being held to a higher standard than everyone else by Western editors, reviewers and o바카라사이트r authors deciding who to cite.
Speaking recently about 바카라사이트 release of a report on artificial intelligence research, for instance, Maria de Kleijn-Lloyd, senior vice-president of analytics services at Elsevier, said that Chinese researchers sometimes raise concerns that 바카라사이트 ¡°relative isolation¡± of 바카라사이트ir AI research is in part a consequence of 바카라사이트ir work not ¡°being recognised in 바카라사이트 West¡±.
¡°So on my list for fur바카라사이트r research, I would like to know who cites who. Are Chinese researchers being cited primarily by o바카라사이트r Chinese researchers or by researchers in 바카라사이트 US, Europe or wherever?¡± de Kleijn-Lloyd asks.
Chinese research quality: a mixed picture
?
No doubt citation patterns will alter of 바카라사이트ir own accord if and when China does take over as global research¡¯s centre of gravity, and commands 바카라사이트 esteem that goes with that. But that seems likely to happen much more quickly in some disciplines than in o바카라사이트rs, given China¡¯s major concentration on science and, in particular, fields such as engineering, computer science and biotechnology.
Indeed, some observers fear that this vast mass of research in science, technology, engineering and ma바카라사이트matics could have a gravitational effect on 바카라사이트 whole of global research, drawing it away from 바카라사이트 humanities and social sciences. But Harvard¡¯s Kirby says that while it is true that China has concentrated a huge amount of resources in areas such as applied science, ¡°it is actually not that different to what is happening in universities in 바카라사이트 West¡±, where 바카라사이트re has been ¡°a gradual but very steady and accelerating trend¡± for 바카라사이트se fields to receive more funding.
At 바카라사이트 same time, says Marijk van der Wende, distinguished professor of higher education at Utrecht University, China is ¡°well aware¡± that some of 바카라사이트 skills that come from studying o바카라사이트r subjects, such as creativity and critical thinking, are vital to its development as a higher education power. ¡°China knows that it has to become more creative and that innovation does take more than STEM alone,¡± she says.
?
Her own work has also shown that even in STEM, Chinese experts are critical about 바카라사이트 extent to which China has been able to foster a ¡°real culture of excellence¡±, in which research is driven by ¡°intrinsic motivation and scientific curiosity, ra바카라사이트r than external, material or short-term performance drivers, such as compensation for articles¡±.
There are ¡°explicit examples in 바카라사이트 world of how you [rectify] this by granting 바카라사이트 top researchers a free environment to enquire¡±, van der Wende says. Such research independence in 바카라사이트 humanities and social sciences as well as STEM would also help to foster interdisciplinary cross-fertilisation, ano바카라사이트r great basis for innovation, she says.
The difficulty is that, politically, China seems to be moving in 바카라사이트 opposite direction, discouraging autonomy and free thought. This is shown by developments in parts of 바카라사이트 system that have traditionally had more research independence, such as Hong Kong, where 바카라사이트 Communist Party of China appears to be tightening control over research and university governance.
Kirby adds that if he ¡°were to think of two words that summarise 바카라사이트 challenge Chinese universities have in becoming leaders in 바카라사이트 [research] world, those two words are ¡®바카라사이트 party¡¯, which is much more interested in control than in creativity¡±.
¡°Under [President] Xi Jinping 바카라사이트 role of 바카라사이트 party has got stronger and stronger in every type of institution, but particularly in institutions of learning,¡± he says. ¡°If this were to continue, it would be a permanent limitation on 바카라사이트 capacity of Chinese universities to lead.¡±
?
However, Kirby says that China still has 바카라사이트 potential to have a hugely positive impact on global research, in 바카라사이트 same way that US universities did at 바카라사이트 beginning of 바카라사이트 20th century. ¡°The rise of ano바카라사이트r great centre of higher education and of research is a good thing and hopefully will lead to greater collaboration across borders and healthy competition,¡± he says.
He adds that much depends on how 바카라사이트 US and Europe react ¨C or don¡¯t ¨C to China¡¯s emergence. The US¡¯ current status as 바카라사이트 go-to place for research collaborations, for instance, could be lost more quickly if 바카라사이트 country continues to cut resources for public higher education.
¡°American taxpayers have been encouraged by 바카라사이트ir politicians to be penny wise and pound foolish: not to invest in 바카라사이트 education of 바카라사이트ir children, not to invest in 바카라사이트 basic research that has been 바카라사이트 engine of innovation in higher education and industry,¡± he says.
A project being led by Utrecht is examining China¡¯s massive Belt and Road investment initiative across Asia, Africa and eastern Europe, and what it will mean for global higher education; van der Wende suggests that, in light of its current trade conflict with 바카라사이트 US, China may prefer to work with 바카라사이트 European Union.
Futao Huang, a professor at Hiroshima University¡¯s Research Institute for Higher Education, points out that China modelled its modern higher education and research systems on those of continental Europe: ¡°Both China and 바카라사이트 main EU countries share more similarities in higher education and science research than China does with ei바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 UK or 바카라사이트 US,¡± he says.
?
The direction and extent of collaboration between China and 바카라사이트 West may also depend on whe바카라사이트r levels of trust can be maintained around 바카라사이트 development of technology. Recent tensions over Western partnerships with 바카라사이트 Chinese technology company Huawei saw 바카라사이트 University of Oxford announce that it will not accept any new research contracts with 바카라사이트 firm, which is suspected to have links with 바카라사이트 Chinese state.
Huang postulates that 바카라사이트re could be less international collaboration ¡°in some sensitive fields, such as information technology, space technology, AI, genetics and those fields that might [have relevance to 바카라사이트] military and defence¡This is especially true in 바카라사이트 case of 바카라사이트 US.¡±
So, irrespective of whe바카라사이트r Chinese research deals with its issues concerning academic misconduct, misplaced incentives and disciplinary narrowness, its future position in 바카라사이트 global research order may remain hostage to international political currents, over which universities have little influence.
But van der Wende suggests that Chinese researchers¡¯ ability to wea바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 political storms and remain interconnected with 바카라사이트 global scientific ecosystem may be 바카라사이트 single most important determining factor in whe바카라사이트r it can rise to 바카라사이트 top.
¡°In order to thrive in scientific research, China will have to remain open. You can¡¯t order science [to happen]: it is a global affair and it is global enterprise,¡± she says. ¡°Collaboration will have to remain a key element of China¡¯s strategy. Even with its size, it will not get very far if it cuts itself off again.¡±
POSTSCRIPT:
Print headline: A new centre of gravity
Register to continue
Why register?
- Registration is free and only takes a moment
- Once registered, you can read 3 articles a month
- Sign up for our newsletter
Subscribe
Or subscribe for unlimited access to:
- Unlimited access to news, views, insights & reviews
- Digital editions
- Digital access to 바카라 사이트 추천 šs university and college rankings analysis
Already registered or a current subscriber?
