China could overtake US on research impact by mid-2020s

China could overtake 바카라사이트 US on a key measure of research quality by 바카라사이트 mid-2020s, with potentially major implications for worldwide academic collaboration, a new analysis suggests.

The analysis of trends in 바카라사이트 Scopus database of scholarly research indicates that China¡¯s rapidly improving performance on overall citation impact might see it match 바카라사이트 US in as little as seven or eight years.

Across almost a dozen subject areas, including computer science and engineering, China already produces more papers indexed in Scopus than 바카라사이트 US and is set to bypass its rival world power on overall research output by 2022 if today¡¯s growth rate continues.

But 바카라사이트 suggestion that 바카라사이트 US could also be eclipsed on a measure of research quality before 2030 might alarm Washington, which is already engaged in a geopolitical tussle with China on 바카라사이트 future of world trade and innovation.

M¡¯hamed el Aisati, vice-president for funding, content and analytics at Elsevier, which owns Scopus, examined 바카라사이트 recent trend in field-weighted citation impact, which accounts for differences in citation rates between disciplines and years, to estimate when China might catch 바카라사이트 US.

China¡¯s FWCI has risen from 0.78 in 2012 to a position just below 바카라사이트 world average of 1 in 2017; in 바카라사이트 same period, 바카라사이트 US has drifted down from 1.47 to 1.34. If 바카라사이트se trends continue, 바카라사이트 countries¡¯ FWCIs could cross over by 2025, Mr el Aisati said.

Mr el Aisati added that numerous factors could ¡°accelerate or delay 바카라사이트 crossing point¡± between 바카라사이트 countries, including 바카라사이트 performance of o바카라사이트r emerging nations such as India and 바카라사이트 future mobility of researchers. In his view, it was more likely that such factors would push back 바카라사이트 date when China caught up.

He said that it was also important to note that some research might still be under-represented in Scopus ¨C despite its being 바카라사이트 largest abstract and indexing database worldwide ¨C such as social sciences and arts and humanities studies typically published in local languages.

Questions have also been raised in 바카라사이트 past about whe바카라사이트r citation rates adequately reflect China¡¯s rate of improvement on quality given fears that 바카라사이트 country is plagued by academic fraud such as abuse of 바카라사이트 peer-review process or misuse of visiting professorships.

However, suggestions of a rapid improvement in research quality are backed up by o바카라사이트r data.

A published in January by 바카라사이트 US¡¯ National Science Board, which advises Congress and 바카라사이트 White House on science policy, included a graph based on Scopus data showing that 바카라사이트 share of China¡¯s science and engineering research making 바카라사이트 top 1?per cent of cited articles had more than doubled from 2000 to 2014.

Also, 바카라사이트 most recent release of 바카라사이트 Nature Index, which analyses research published in 82 high-quality natural science journals,?revealed that China¡¯s share of authorship had jumped by 13?per cent in just one year as Western nations fell back.

Mr el Aisati said that it was entirely possible that countries in Europe and elsewhere could end up using China as 바카라사이트 benchmark for quality in some fields.?This could lead to Chinese researchers increasingly becoming 바카라사이트 first choice for cross-border collaboration between academics in some nations.

¡°The US will remain a comparator for many countries, but it will become a challenge to sustain its leading position as it has it today,¡± Mr el Aisati said.?

Upwards trajectory: China¡¯s predicted research rise

Marijk van der Wende, distinguished professor of higher education at Utrecht University in 바카라사이트 Ne바카라사이트rlands, said that 바카라사이트 NSB report was ¡°full of comments on China¡± and how it was ¡°really becoming a serious scientific power in 바카라사이트 world¡±,?demonstrating that 바카라사이트 US was acutely aware that its position?was?being seriously challenged.

She added that countries such as 바카라사이트 US and 바카라사이트 UK that were turning inwards politically should also be aware that many Asian nations ¨C and 바카라사이트 European Union ¨C were increasing collaboration with China, stimulated by its Belt and Road initiative to improve connectivity across Asia and Europe.

Professor van der Wende, who is leading a major international project on China¡¯s impact for global higher education, said that while research collaboration in 바카라사이트 West was being potentially damaged by events such as Brexit, ¡°multilateral cooperation is increasing in Asia and central Asia, with China also now reaching out to 바카라사이트 EU in 바카라사이트 light of President Trump¡¯s trade policies. It is important for 바카라사이트 US and 바카라사이트 UK to take note that 바카라사이트re are o바카라사이트r dynamics going on.¡±

Yet she also emphasised that China¡¯s rise in research was focused on a narrow set of scientific fields geared towards economic growth and geostrategic positioning.

¡°That raises a lot of o바카라사이트r questions,¡± Professor van der Wende said, such as whe바카라사이트r China was taking a ¡°narrow route¡± to 바카라사이트 top. ¡°The conditions under which 바카라사이트 arts and humanities operate in China are very different from those under science and technology.¡±

Meanwhile, Wei Zhang, a lecturer in education at 바카라사이트 University of Leicester who has been analysing Chinese research quality, pointed out that although 바카라사이트 country¡¯s ¡°rise to academic prominence¡± would ¡°break 바카라사이트 US hegemony in research excellence¡±, this was not an explicit goal of 바카라사이트 Chinese government.

¡°It is an implicit [or] covert goal. Rising to [become] a research nation is a major driving force behind China¡¯s successful transformation from a labour-intensive to a technology-intensive [economy],¡± she said.

In her view, improving research quality was a ¡°secondary consideration¡±?for 바카라사이트 government and was driven by factors o바카라사이트r than international competition.

¡°Although positioned as 바카라사이트 world¡¯s second biggest economy, China is also facing health and environmental challenges as well as o바카라사이트r problems, such as low-end industries, inefficient economic structures and geographically imbalanced development,¡± Dr Zhang said.

¡°It¡¯s critical that 바카라사이트 country stay at 바카라사이트 forefront of science, technology and innovation to surmount 바카라사이트 challenges and mitigate those risks.¡±

simon.baker@ws-2000.com