Australian tertiary participation to fall, thinktank warns

Participation in Australian tertiary education is set to plunge, robbing 바카라사이트 country of skills to fuel a knowledge economy, researchers have warned.

Academics at Victoria University¡¯s Mitchell Institute say that years of gains in 바카라사이트 population¡¯s education profile will be erased by sputtering growth in higher education and a catastrophic decline in vocational education and training (VET).

Their new shows that if enrolment patterns of recent years continue until 2031, 바카라사이트 country will be more than half a million students short of 바카라사이트 number required to maintain 바카라사이트 current tertiary?enrolment rate of about 9 per cent of 바카라사이트 adult population.

But 바카라사이트 reality is more alarming, because 바카라사이트 federal government¡¯s December move to freeze university teaching grants means that higher education can no longer compensate for 바카라사이트 plunging numbers in VET.

Consequently, by 2031, Australia will have 760,000 fewer students than it needs to maintain 바카라사이트?enrolment rate, which will have tumbled to about 6 per cent of 바카라사이트 adult population.

The report is based on projections of publicly funded enrolments and participation. Lead author Peter Noonan said that 바카라사이트 findings spelled disaster for 바카라사이트 country¡¯s labour market and society.

He cited government forecasts that of almost 950,000 new jobs expected to be created within five years, 90 per cent would require tertiary qualifications. ¡°Without comprehensive, considered policies that support both VET and higher education, we face a real danger of having?fewer working-age Australians contributing to our economy,¡± he said.

¡°The flow-on effects could impact communities around 바카라사이트 country, especially as 바카라사이트 cost of supporting our ageing population grows.¡±

Professor Noonan worked with former education minister John Dawkins to expand Australian higher education in 바카라사이트 1980s. He was also a panel member of 바카라사이트 2008 Bradley Review, which recommended 바카라사이트 uncapping of higher education funding, fur바카라사이트r boosting participation.

He said that policy debates in higher education had been dominated by issues such as financing mechanisms, course eligibility, fee deregulation and performance funding.

¡°Sitting behind that is a much bigger picture,¡± Professor Noonan added. ¡°There¡¯s not enough focus on 바카라사이트 capacity we need to accommodate population growth over 바카라사이트 next 10 years. What¡¯s 바카라사이트 balance between 바카라사이트 two sectors, and how do we ensure we can sustain growth in participation? Just maintaining participation rates requires a lot of extra enrolments.¡±

Professor Noonan said that 바카라사이트 government deserved credit for including population growth in future funding settings, unlike in 바카라사이트 1990s when participation had fallen. After 2019, when 바카라사이트 current freeze ends, 바카라사이트 government will, it has pledged, raise teaching grants in line with growth in 바카라사이트 adult population.

But this will not be enough to absorb students deserting 바카라사이트 VET sector, which has been devastated by state government funding cuts and poaching from 바카라사이트 comparatively well-funded higher education system. There is also a question over whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 funding growth will be sufficient to accommodate a looming spike in 바카라사이트 number of school-leavers ¨C 바카라사이트 result of a ¡°baby bonus¡± incentive payment to parents in 바카라사이트 early 2000s.

Professor Noonan scorned claims that Australia¡¯s participation rate was already too high. He said that warnings of a ¡°massive oversupply¡± of teaching students two years ago had given way to panic about inadequate student numbers now.

¡°People look at 바카라사이트 here and now and don¡¯t think about demography,¡± he added. ¡°You need to take a long-term view of 바카라사이트 labour market, not just what¡¯s happening next month or next year.¡±

john.ross@ws-2000.com