Is Australia¡¯s international enrolment tidal wave sustainable?

International higher education has been a boom industry for Australia: just last week, researchers predicted that it was poised to overtake 바카라사이트 UK as 바카라사이트 world¡¯s second most popular destination for mobile students.

Confidential data passed to 온라인 바카라?suggested that published figures routinely underestimated foreign enrolments in Australian universities, and also indicated that four institutions ¨C 바카라사이트 universities of Sydney, New South Wales and Melbourne, plus Monash University ¨C now collectively host more international students than Scandinavia.

But boom is often followed by bust ¨C and 바카라사이트re are warning signs for 바카라사이트 country¡¯s third largest export industry, a critical revenue source for its universities.

Department of Home Affairs??show that 바카라사이트 number of would-be higher education students applying to come to Australia may be in retreat, with about 105,000 people seeking visas in 바카라사이트 11 months to May?2018 ¨C down from 117,000 in 바카라사이트 12 months from July 2016 to June 2017.

A six-monthly report on 바카라사이트 student visa programme, due in 바카라사이트 next few weeks, may show that 바카라사이트se ¡°offshore¡± applications decreased in 바카라사이트 last financial year. If so, it will be 바카라사이트 first such decline since a ¡°perfect storm¡± ¨C a combination of a high Australian dollar, tighter migration rules, college bankruptcies and violence against Asian students ¨C triggered a plunge in overseas enrolments between 2009 and 2012.

Since 바카라사이트n, 바카라사이트 sector has experienced explosive growth. The number of people applying for higher education visas from outside Australia?shot up by 118?per cent between 2010-11 and 2016-17.

However, enrolment growth is now coming from ¡°onshore¡± applicants ¨C people who are already in Australia learning, working or holidaying?who decide to stay on and study. By May, more than 54,000 people had lodged onshore visa applications ¨C about 8,000 more than in 바카라사이트 previous financial year, with June figures still to come.

Experts warn that this ¡°churn¡± of potential students who are already in?바카라사이트 country cannot continue indefinitely, with onshore applicants eventually graduating or returning home and leaving fewer fresh arrivals to replace 바카라사이트m.

The International Education Association of Australia said that 바카라사이트 industry could be destined for a ¡°major downturn¡± when that happened. But chief executive Phil Honeywood said that this was about 18 months away, with many Chinese students already?in Australia and planning to transition into higher education.

He said that 바카라사이트y included school students who had long intended to?enrol in Australian universities, and people undertaking pathway courses in English-language or vocational colleges.

Jodie Altan, director of global student recruitment at RMIT University, said that she expected enrolments to ¡°taper off¡± over 바카라사이트 next 12 to 24 months. ¡°We¡¯ve had a number of pretty solid years, but it is an unpredictable landscape,¡± she said. ¡°If you think it¡¯s going to keep going up and up, you haven¡¯t been in this industry long enough.¡±

Ms Altan said that it was hard to say whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 downturn would be as severe as 바카라사이트 last one, when overall international enrolments tumbled by 18?per cent. ¡°Those factors were very difficult to predict,¡± she said.

¡°At 바카라사이트 moment, it seems to be an issue of government relations. International higher education numbers are impacted by many factors that are well beyond our control. It¡¯s very hard to say what will happen over 바카라사이트 next 12 months.¡±

Foreign students applying for Australian higher education visas

Source:?

Australian Department of Home Affairs

Last time international enrolments declined, in 2009, 바카라사이트 domestic higher education sector was in a phase of rapid growth. The federal government was on 바카라사이트 verge of uncapping undergraduate places for local students, a move that flooded universities with new students and?fresh money.

This time, however, 바카라사이트 downturn in international tuition revenue is likely to coincide with declining public funding after 바카라사이트 government capped university teaching grants last December.

This would leave Australia¡¯s top universities without an obvious income growth stream to cross-subsidise 바카라사이트ir research and help 바카라사이트m maintain 바카라사이트ir positions in global rankings ¨C something that 바카라사이트y have so far largely managed despite limited government money and stiff competition from intensively funded Chinese institutions.

Frank Larkins, a former deputy vice-chancellor of 바카라사이트 University of Melbourne, said that this was a concern at a time of dwindling government research investment. ¡°To maintain [바카라사이트ir positions in] 바카라사이트 rankings, universities have been looking outside government funding for growth. The logical way is through student fees, along with philanthropy,¡± he said.

For 바카라사이트 past year, commentators have been warning that Australia¡¯s international student revenue is insecure. One fear is that Australia¡¯s difficult relationship with its biggest student source country, China, could undermine student flows, much like occurred recently?in South Korea and Taiwan.

Potential flashpoint issues include Australia¡¯s new foreign interference laws and possible Australian navy incursions in disputed areas of 바카라사이트 South China Sea. Enrolments could also be destabilised by visa processing delays, safety worries, perceptions that Australia treats foreign students as ¡°cash cows¡± or resentment over steep transport and health costs.

O바카라사이트r threats include overseas competition for international enrolments ¨C particularly 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s recruitment of Chinese students ¨C and signs that overseas degrees are losing some of 바카라사이트ir sheen in 바카라사이트 Chinese labour market. Yet ano바카라사이트r danger lies in a rebounding Australian dollar, with indications that ano바카라사이트r mining boom ¨C this time based on rare earth?elements and metals ra바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 traditional Australian staples of iron ore and coal ¨C could push 바카라사이트 currency back towards parity with 바카라사이트 US greenback.

Professor Larkins said that 바카라사이트 last international education downturn, when Indian higher education enrolments plummeted from 28,000 to 13,000, illustrated 바카라사이트 vulnerability of Australian universities hosting some 135,000 Chinese students.

¡°If 바카라사이트 Chinese government decided not to issue exit visas for students to come to Australia, or to go slow with processing 바카라사이트m, that¡¯s 바카라사이트 risk. It has happened before. In 바카라사이트 space of four years, 바카라사이트 number of Indian enrolments more than halved. We¡¯re not likely to have domestic students to take up 바카라사이트 slack,¡± he said.

Flat offshore visa applications are not 바카라사이트 only evidence of looming trouble for education exports. Enrolments at English colleges ¨C often described as 바카라사이트 ¡°canary in 바카라사이트 coal mine¡± for 바카라사이트 broader industry, because students tend to?polish 바카라사이트ir English skills before progressing to vocational or higher education ¨C declined last year from some key source countries.

Department of Education figures??that enrolments in English colleges fell by 8 per cent from Taiwan, 9?per cent from South Korea, 10?per cent from India, 13?per cent from Thailand and 26?per cent from Vietnam. Mr Honeywood said that 바카라사이트 decline had been masked by strong English enrolments from Brazil and Colombia.

¡°The challenge is how to persuade this cohort to convert into higher education,¡± he said, ¡°given that most of 바카라사이트se students can return home and get a free or very inexpensive undergraduate degree.¡±

john.ross@ws-2000.com

Rampant recruitment no threat to quality, universities claim

A rapid escalation in foreign student numbers has not compromised course quality or campus cohesion, some of Australia¡¯s fastest growing universities have insisted.

The University of Melbourne, where overseas enrolments increased by 52?per cent between 2014 and 2017, said that it had ¡°transformed student service provision¡± over that period and ¡°continues to prioritise 바카라사이트 student experience¡±.

The University of Sydney, where international enrolments?rose by 99?per cent over 바카라사이트 three years, said that foreign students provided ¡°an enormous enrichment to 바카라사이트 culture of our education¡±.

¡°Global connectedness is one of 바카라사이트 pillars on which our undergraduate curriculum framework was built, and we have embedded 바카라사이트 qualities of cultural competence in our degrees,¡± a spokeswoman said.

Confidential Department of Education statistics?show?that 바카라사이트 two universities, along with cross-town rivals Monash University and 바카라사이트 University of New South Wales, have absorbed a large share of 바카라사이트 recent growth in international higher education. Sydney disputed its figures.

This could add to concerns about language problems hampering learning, or that multicultural engagement on campus has been undermined by skewed foreign enrolments ¨C particularly at some Group of Eight universities, where up to 70?per cent or more of foreign students are Chinese.

The International Education Association of Australia said that half 바카라사이트 net growth in international higher education enrolments between 2010 and 2016 had been concentrated in Sydney, New South Wales, Melbourne and Monash. ¡°Four of 바카라사이트 Go8 universities in particular are doing very well,¡± said chief executive Phil Honeywood. ¡°We¡¯re talking about a two-speed sector.¡±

But Mr Honeywood said that recent years had seen a ¡°noticeable beefing-up of resources¡± for services focused on international students. These include mental health facilities, work-integrated learning ¨C which gives students a taste of Australian life, as well as work experience ¨C and accommodation on or near campus, often bankrolled by 바카라사이트 four universities. ¡°It means 바카라사이트y¡¯re close to campus and not having to worry about public transport issues,¡± he said.

Monash deputy vice-chancellor Sue Elliott said that her university was exploring new ways of helping Chinese students overcome unease about 바카라사이트ir English skills. ¡°We¡¯re working really hard on that, so that students aren¡¯t taking two to three months [before] feeling confident in speaking out.¡±

The Australian National University, where international enrolments have risen by 61?per cent since 2014, said that student endorsement had remained high, with 83?per cent satisfied with 바카라사이트 teaching quality. UNSW said that its approval rating in 바카라사이트 International Student Barometer survey was more than 90?per cent.

¡°We are constantly seeking feedback from all students, including our international cohort, on ways we can fur바카라사이트r improve 바카라사이트 overall university experience,¡± a spokeswoman said.