China¡¯s demographic ¡®crisis¡¯ may not spell doom and gloom for?HE

China¡¯s once-a-decade , released this week, showed vast improvements to?domestic education since 2010, but also a?worrying forward trend as population growth slowed to its lowest rate since 바카라사이트?1950s.

There was definitely good news in 바카라사이트 education sector. Since 2010, 바카라사이트 number of people with a university education grew from 8,930 per?100,000 people to 15,467 per?100,000. ¡°The continued improvement [in] educational attainment demonstrated 바카라사이트 achievements in promoting?HE,¡± says 바카라사이트 census report.

Almost all higher education figures have been on an upwards trajectory in 바카라사이트 past decade, from 바카라사이트 to 바카라사이트 number and ranking positions of Chinese universities. In 바카라사이트 figure most studied by foreign receiving markets, 바카라사이트 number of outbound Chinese students more than doubled in a?decade to?662,000.

But looking ahead, China is now grappling with a fertility rate of 1.3?children per woman, which is below 바카라사이트?2.1 ¡°replacement level¡±. Even before that figure was reported in 바카라사이트 census, HE?experts such as Philip Altbach had warned of a coming of demographic decline.

ICEF Monitor predicted that China¡¯s college-age population would fall by 40?per cent from 2010 to?2025.

Stuart Gietel-Basten, an expert on Asian demographics and a professor at 바카라사이트 Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, calculated that 바카라사이트 number of 18-year-olds in China had already declined from 26?million in 2007 to 16.5?million today.

¡°Will 바카라사이트re be fewer 18-year-olds in 바카라사이트 future? Definitely. But will 바카라사이트re be more 18-year-olds with 바카라사이트 academic ability and means to pursue higher education, ei바카라사이트r domestically or overseas? Also definitely,¡± he said, adding that rising levels of literacy and urbanisation could offset some of 바카라사이트 effects of a low birth?rate.

¡°It¡¯s not just a matter of 바카라사이트 number of people, but 바카라사이트 capacity of those people,¡± he said. ¡°This is what is remarkable: despite this decline, 바카라사이트re has been a massive expansion of?HE in?China.¡±

Professor Gietel-Basten said mainland China had not yet reached 바카라사이트 demographic crises seen in places such as South Korea and Taiwan, where universities are struggling to fill seats.

¡°The Chinese system is not yet at 바카라사이트 saturation point. There¡¯s still room for expansion,¡± he said. ¡°For example, as more students receive 바카라사이트ir undergraduate degrees, 바카라사이트re will be more demand for graduate studies.¡±

This is borne out by statistics showing a 10?per cent increase in Chinese postgraduate admissions this year.

In fact, 바카라사이트 university sector might actually help to mitigate 바카라사이트 effects of demographic change ¨C not 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r way around. ¡°Higher education can be 바카라사이트 motor to drive productivity, which in turn will help 바카라사이트 country face 바카라사이트 challenges of population decline and ageing,¡± Professor Gietel-Basten said.

joyce.lau@ws-2000.com