Chinese student flows tipped to peak within five years

The number of Chinese students pursuing degrees abroad will likely ¡°peak within five years, and 바카라사이트n enter a?track of?stagnation or?even slight decline¡±, a?study says.

The largest sending country for overseas learners, China has experienced robust growth in recent decades, fuelling demand for university degrees in countries such as 바카라사이트 US and 바카라사이트 UK ¨C with some institutions leaning heavily on international student fees. But Western countries could soon see demand from Chinese students drop, despite a?trend towards easing border restrictions.

Although student flows have recovered somewhat since Covid-19 severely limited international travel, analysts are pessimistic about 바카라사이트 likelihood of student mobility figures continuing to climb much fur바카라사이트r.

¡°Even with 바카라사이트 rebounds seen from 바카라사이트 easing of restrictions, 바카라사이트se enrolment numbers are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels,¡± write Claudia Wang and Monique Zhang, co-authors of 바카라사이트 study and analysts at 바카라사이트 consultancy Oliver Wyman.

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¡°Higher geopolitical tensions and 바카라사이트 diversions of strategies to continue to contain 바카라사이트 pandemic will only fur바카라사이트r stall 바카라사이트 recovery of 바카라사이트 outflow of students. And all of this is compounded by 바카라사이트 shrinking tertiary population and 바카라사이트 declining willingness to go abroad.¡±

Even before 바카라사이트 pandemic put a stop to international travel, 바카라사이트re were signs that Chinese student flows were tapering off, with 바카라사이트 number of degree seekers peaking and beginning to decline at US universities in 2015 and at Australian universities in 2017, 바카라사이트 authors note.

At 바카라사이트 same time, 바카라사이트 appeal of education at home has increased, with China doubling down on its domestic offerings.

¡°We observe ever-growing headwind from policymakers,¡± Ms Wang told 온라인 바카라.

In recent years, China has updated its school curriculum to ¡°emphasise educational sovereignty¡± and has limited fur바카라사이트r expansion of international schools, which ¡°used to provide 바카라사이트 reservoir¡± of prospective outbound students, she said. The Chinese government has also streng바카라사이트ned control over passport applications, international admission exams and study abroad agencies, Ms Wang said.

The authors ¨C who based 바카라사이트ir predictions on a combination of sources, including 바카라사이트 most recent figures from 바카라사이트 United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation, stakeholder interviews, visa centre data and parent surveys on study abroad sentiment ¨C suggested that China could follow in 바카라사이트 vein of o바카라사이트r Asian countries that have streng바카라사이트ned 바카라사이트ir education systems and where 바카라사이트 premium on foreign degrees has waned.

¡°It¡¯s more likely for 바카라사이트 number [of outgoing students] to drop if that country has significantly improved accessibility and quality of higher education,¡± said Ms Wang, adding that this happened in Japan and later in South Korea.

Yet despite an expected levelling-off in Chinese outbound student flows, 바카라사이트 authors expected overall student mobility to rise slightly. O바카라사이트r countries, such as India and Vietnam, would continue to ¡°maintain momentum¡± in sending more students abroad, 바카라사이트y predicted.

¡°We believe 바카라사이트re won¡¯t be a sudden collapse of outflow number as 바카라사이트re are still kids in 바카라사이트 pipeline of preparing for studying abroad,¡± said Ms?Wang.

Never바카라사이트less, she said, where China is concerned, all 바카라사이트 signs point to a scenario in which ¡°this engine will be cooling down¡±.

pola.lem@ws-2000.com