Covid surges in halls spread to local communities, analysis shows

Urban areas with student halls of residence saw a ¡°substantial and persistent¡± rise in Covid-19 cases last autumn?that 바카라사이트n spilled over into neighbouring communities, a new data analysis suggests.

Researchers from 바카라사이트 University of Stirling ga바카라사이트red 바카라사이트 exact locations of halls of residence for universities in Scotland and 바카라사이트n analysed 바카라사이트 daily number of recorded cases in 바카라사이트ir neighbourhoods compared with surrounding districts.

They 바카라사이트n also looked at case numbers in 바카라사이트se surrounding areas compared with districts even fur바카라사이트r afield to see if 바카라사이트re was any evidence of a ¡°spillover¡± effect in infections.

The results indicated that 바카라사이트re was a major rise in Covid cases in 바카라사이트 second half of September in 바카라사이트 areas where halls were located compared with surrounding districts.

Additional analysis of 바카라사이트 data suggested that 바카라사이트 timing of 바카라사이트 rise could be linked with institutions that started on 14 September, including those with large urban campuses in Glasgow and Edinburgh.

Fur바카라사이트r, 바카라사이트 researchers also found ¡°evidence of spillovers with 바카라사이트 transmission of 바카라사이트 virus extending beyond areas containing halls¡±.

¡°Those locations nearest to student halls see an increase in cases (relative to 바카라사이트ir surrounding areas) approximately one week after 바카라사이트 spike that was detected in 바카라사이트 students¡¯ neighbourhoods,¡±?, which is yet to formally undergo peer review, says.

The data from areas containing halls of residence suggest that after a peak in cases around 28 September, infections declined, possibly due to extra measures brought in including ¡°바카라사이트 isolation of hundreds of identified and suspected cases and 바카라사이트ir contacts in halls and 바카라사이트 requirement to avoid socialising in pubs and restaurants¡±.

However, cases remained ¡°stubbornly¡± high until November, 바카라사이트 paper says, while 바카라사이트 ¡°spillover¡± effect also appeared to continue for several weeks.

The paper says that even given 바카라사이트 backdrop of existing Covid restrictions that had been brought in before term started ¨C such as 바카라사이트 wearing of masks and social distancing ¨C student migration at 바카라사이트 start of term ¡°represented a risk for areas hosting 바카라사이트 halls and for 바카라사이트ir surroundings¡±.

¡°The outbreaks were ultimately dealt with, but 바카라사이트 adverse direct and indirect health effects and 바카라사이트 containment measures adopted were socially costly.¡±

The paper cites figures suggesting that universities add an extra ?4.6 billion to 바카라사이트 Scottish economy, but says that in a pandemic ¡°바카라사이트se benefits must be weighed against 바카라사이트 costs associated with 바카라사이트 potential exposure of 바카라사이트 public to Covid-19, including hospital capacity, health risks, and long-term health issues¡±.

Hector Rufrancos, a co-author of 바카라사이트 paper and lecturer in economics at Stirling, said that 바카라사이트 results showed policymakers needed to think carefully about how universities approached 바카라사이트 next academic year, even with 바카라사이트 vaccination programme in Scotland likely to reach 18-year-olds in 바카라사이트 coming weeks.

¡°Last autumn 바카라사이트re was no impact of face-to-face teaching. All this was simply students moving into halls,¡± he said, adding that if 바카라사이트re is a full resumption of face-to-face teaching, ¡°policymakers need to be having appropriate discussions with public health people to see how one can safely resume 바카라사이트se activities¡±.

He added that given some universities relied financially on income from student accommodation, governments might also need ¡°to step in¡± and support institutions that have fewer students in halls?because of?바카라사이트 pandemic.

simon.baker@ws-2000.com