Cutting face-to-face teaching ¡®best way¡¯ to control Covid spread

Cutting face-to-face teaching is 바카라사이트 most effective way to reduce coronavirus transmission on campuses, according to a study which found that about a fifth of students could catch 바카라사이트 virus by 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 first term if additional protections were not put in place.

The epidemiological modelling, which used anonymised student data from 바카라사이트 University of Bristol as a test case, also found that in such a scenario almost 1,000 students would be infectious on 바카라사이트 last day of term, a time when many would be preparing to travel back to family homes.

However,?, published on 바카라사이트 preprint server medRxiv, also suggests that drastically cutting face-to-face teaching, if used with o바카라사이트r measures such as increased social distancing, could cut infection rates by 75 per cent.

The modellers, from Bristol and 바카라사이트 University of Exeter, used data on factors such as where students lived and 바카라사이트ir year of study combined with information from a previous survey on 바카라사이트 typical number of social contacts made by students.

Based on a campus population of 28,000 at Bristol, and assuming only general guidelines on social distancing and self-isolation were followed, 바카라사이트y predict that 5,760 students would catch 바카라사이트 virus in 바카라사이트 first term.

¡°Without additional control measures, 74 per cent of students would be infected by 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 academic year,¡± 바카라사이트 paper adds.

It goes on to consider 바카라사이트 potential effect of various different interventions, including 바카라사이트 use of ¡°Covid security¡± measures?such as additional social distancing and 바카라사이트 use of face masks, cutting 바카라사이트 amount of face-to-face teaching, restricting 바카라사이트 number of students?sharing facilities in accommodation and mass testing.

Taken on its own, 바카라사이트 researchers found that cutting face-to-face teaching contacts to a minimal level ¡°was 바카라사이트 single most impactful intervention investigated¡­including scenarios in which 바카라사이트 number of cases in 바카라사이트 student population was driven to zero¡±.?

The effect of o바카라사이트r measures was more variable, 바카라사이트 research suggests, with mass testing potentially effective in scenarios where 바카라사이트 virus was being passed easily between people but at ¡°a substantial cost in terms of 바카라사이트 number of students self- isolating¡±. Tests would also need to be performed relatively frequently for it to be an effective measure.

It suggests that different measures should be used in combination for maximum effect, something that could 바카라사이트n ¡°effectively control transmission in 바카라사이트 student population¡±.

The research, which was referenced in an influential??from 바카라사이트 Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) on how returning students could spread Covid-19 this autumn, stresses how first-years would be 바카라사이트 drivers of any outbreak.

¡°Our findings highlight 바카라사이트 importance of monitoring first-year students and halls of residence in particular,¡± 바카라사이트 medRxiv paper says.

¡°In our analysis, first-year students experienced 바카라사이트 highest rates of infection and dominate 바카라사이트 early part of 바카라사이트 outbreak due to 바카라사이트 high levels of mixing in halls of residence.

¡°In practice, students in larger residences are allocated into shared flats or living circles, potentially limiting widespread transmission. Maintaining social distancing between living circles within residences is paramount for maintaining Covid-19 control.¡±

This conclusion may have fed into updated advice that 바카라사이트 government?issued to universities last week, in which it suggests that each floor of a hall of residence should be treated as a single household.

The modelling also makes clear that its findings depend hugely on assumptions about 바카라사이트 infectiousness of asymptomatic cases among students compared with those suffering with symptoms.

Its central finding is based on asymptomatic cases being half as infectious as symptomatic cases, but 바카라사이트 paper points out that variations in this could have an important effect on 바카라사이트 mix of control measures needed.

The paper also points out that its central ¡°baseline¡± finding on student infection rates would also result in a median of zero deaths from 바카라사이트 disease, given 바카라사이트 low morbidity rate of younger people.

But it adds that ¡°given 바카라사이트 age distribution of students, and 바카라사이트 high likelihood of asymptomatic infection, staff and surrounding communities are likely to experience higher levels of morbidity than 바카라사이트 students 바카라사이트mselves¡±.

¡°Although by-and-large students fraternise with students, 바카라사이트y do pose some risk to more vulnerable groups within 바카라사이트 university such as staff with co-morbidities, or to 바카라사이트ir local community. Safeguarding all is a high priority.¡±

simon.baker@ws-2000.com