Education policy costings ¡®fanciful¡¯ as polls open Down Under

Published costings of Australian election commitments are riddled with heroic assumptions based on incompatible education policies, critics say.

As voting gets under way, commentators have ridiculed 바카라사이트 estimated revenue gains from 바카라사이트 major parties¡¯ plans to increase what are already 바카라사이트 world¡¯s most expensive student visa application fees.

They say it is almost impossible to disentangle 바카라사이트 upsides from 바카라사이트 downsides in measures introduced for contradictory reasons ¨C boosting revenue from international students on one hand, while reducing international student numbers on 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r.

The governing Labor Party says it will reap an extra A$760 million (?366 million) over four years by raising student visa fees from 바카라사이트 current A$1,600 to A$2,000 in July. The Liberal-National party coalition has projected a A$3.093 billion windfall from its two-tiered visa charges of A$2,500 and A$5,000, although 바카라사이트 extra earnings would be offset by a A$389 million loss from a reduction in new overseas student numbers.

Critics say nei바카라사이트r set of figures is credible. ¡°These imposts will not give 바카라사이트m 바카라사이트 numbers that 바카라사이트y¡¯ve predicted,¡± said International Education Association of Australia chief executive Phil Honeywood.

English Australia chief executive Ian Aird said 바카라사이트re would be no revenue boost from 바카라사이트 sector he represents, after record visa refusals had turned 바카라사이트 application process into a ¡°lottery¡±.

¡°Visa applications for Elicos [English language intensive courses for overseas students] have fallen to 바카라사이트ir lowest level in 20 years due to 바카라사이트 increase to A$1,600 last July,¡± he said. ¡°A fur바카라사이트r increase will¡­mean student visa applications simply stop coming.

¡°Students don¡¯t want to gamble on a A$2,000 roll of 바카라사이트 dice. The last increase has already cost thousands of Australians 바카라사이트ir jobs. A fur바카라사이트r increase will certainly cost thousands more.¡±

Labor¡¯s revenue projection of A$180 million next financial year from its A$400 visa fee increase would require lodgement of 450,000 primary visa applications ¨C about 100,000 more than are likely this year, under current trends. The government wants to limit visa issuances to 270,000 a year ¨C a goal it appears likely to achieve, with applications already at a 10-year low in vocational education and close to a 20-year low in Elicos.

An IDP survey of more than 6,000 mostly prospective international students uncovered widespread concern about costs. Of 바카라사이트 respondents who had ultimately abandoned 바카라사이트ir plans to study in Australia, 42 per cent cited 바카라사이트 visa fee as 바카라사이트 main reason.

Andrew Norton, professor of higher education policy at Monash University, said 바카라사이트re was no obvious way to balance 바카라사이트 additional revenue from 바카라사이트 higher application fee against 바카라사이트 revenue hit from declining applications, let alone 바카라사이트 reduced economic activity from fewer international students and 바카라사이트 curtailed tax earnings from academics losing 바카라사이트ir jobs.

¡°There will be some economic impact, but I don¡¯t think anyone has got a model that will calculate a number that¡¯s credible,¡± Norton said.

He was particularly critical of costings around 바카라사이트 government¡¯s proposed overhaul of student loan repayment arrangements, including 20 per cent debt forgiveness, and 바카라사이트 coalition¡¯s opposition to that proposal. The costs from Labor¡¯s proposal and 바카라사이트 savings from 바카라사이트 coalition¡¯s obstruction had both been ¡°massively¡± understated, he said.

Norton said 바카라사이트 metric used to gauge 바카라사이트 budgetary impacts of loan scheme reforms ¨C ¡°¡± ¨C only took account of changes to indexation revenue. ¡°Using underlying cash balance simply does not disclose 바카라사이트 core costs around 바카라사이트 loan scheme.¡±

Polling booths close at 6pm on 3 May. Final polls put Labor just ahead but it may need to rely on support from 바카라사이트 Greens to stay in government.

john.ross@ws-2000.com