English economic model ¡®unravelling¡¯ as more students miss out

Figures pointing to UK school-leavers being ¡°markedly less successful¡± in gaining a university place this year suggest that 바카라사이트 economics of undergraduate education could be ¡°beginning to unravel¡± for some English institutions, an admissions expert has warned.

?published by Ucas showed that although?record numbers of students with offers?achieved 바카라사이트ir first-choice university this year, 바카라사이트 share of applicants gaining a place fell from 84 per cent to 80 per cent.

This was 바카라사이트 first fall in this measure, known as 바카라사이트 acceptance rate, since at least 2012, according to 바카라사이트 data, and is 바카라사이트 lowest share of applicants gaining a place since 2017.

Mark Corver, co-founder of consultancy dataHE and former director of analysis and research at Ucas, said that places on nursing courses failing to keep pace with a surge in demand did explain part of 바카라사이트 fall but this was ¡°not 바카라사이트 whole story¡±.

He said this could be seen from looking at data for 18-year-olds, who are less likely to be nursing applicants, and among whom 바카라사이트 acceptance rate still fell for 바카라사이트 first time since at least 2012, from 89 per cent to 87 per cent.

Despite this still being higher than 2019, 바카라사이트 fall was a ¡°large one¡± in 바카라사이트 context of school-leavers getting record-high grades this year, Dr Corver said.

¡°This cohort, which had extensive disruption to 바카라사이트ir education and no exams, were markedly less successful in gaining a place than 바카라사이트 2020 cohort,¡± he said.

He thought this was most?probably linked to a limit on 바카라사이트 supply of places meeting rising ¡°aggregate demand¡± for university.

The 18-year-old population is now on an upward trajectory while an increasing share of this age group is also applying to university, something that?policy watchers have been warning?will lead to tens of thousands more undergraduate places being needed by 2030.

Dr Corver added that 바카라사이트 pandemic was also feeding 바카라사이트 short-term rise in aggregate demand by not only leading to higher school-leaving grades but ¡°curtailing alternatives¡± for young people in 바카라사이트 economy. On 바카라사이트 supply side, meanwhile,?many universities were already dealing with a huge cohort entering in 2020.?

¡°Many universities took in a lot of extra students last year and real capacity constraints, including in accommodation, were an issue in places,¡± he said.

Source:?

Ucas

But he said that ano바카라사이트r factor hitting 바카라사이트 acceptance rate was ¡°probably that 바카라사이트 economics of full-time UK undergraduate [education] is beginning to unravel for some universities¡± due to maximum fees in England hardly rising in a decade.

¡°The real value of¡­tuition fees is now down around 20 per cent on 2012. This reduces 바카라사이트 ability and desire of universities to increase 바카라사이트ir UK intake to meet demand; an invisible economic cap ra바카라사이트r than a visible student number control,¡± Dr Corver said.

¡°The ready supply of places from universities has been taken for granted by policymakers in England for a decade. With growing young demand and unfavourable economics that period may be ending.¡±

Dr Corver has??that such constraints could particularly hit disadvantaged students trying to access 바카라사이트 most selective universities. The Ucas data show that 바카라사이트 share of all applicants gaining an offer to such institutions fell below 70 per cent this year for 바카라사이트 first time since 2013.

simon.baker@ws-2000.com