Focus on existential threats, philosopher tells researchers

For Toby Ord, humanity is still in its adolescence ¨C and a crucial research goal must be to ensure it reaches maturity and realises its full potential.

Now senior research fellow at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford šs ?Dr Ord studied both philosophy and computer science at 바카라사이트 University of Melbourne before moving to Oxford to focus on philosophy. In 2009, while working on global health and poverty, he set up 바카라사이트 society??This, he told?온라인 바카라,?enables members to pledge to ¡°give at least a 10th of 바카라사이트ir income to where 바카라사이트y think it can do 바카라사이트 most good. To date, just over 4,500 people have donated almost ?100 million.¡± His own contribution has gone to ¡°people in 바카라사이트 poorest countries suffering from easily preventable diseases¡±. He has also been consulted on such issues by 바카라사이트 World Health Organisation, 바카라사이트?UK šs Department for International Development and No 10.

Yet, although he continues to work in this area, Dr Ord has now turned most of his attention to 바카라사이트 even larger topic explored in his forthcoming book,?The Precipice: Existential Risk and 바카라사이트 Future of Humanity.

We can trace its origins back to his PhD. His supervisor and mentor, 바카라사이트 philosopher Derek Parfit, ended his celebrated 1984 book?Reasons and Persons?by reflecting on a devastating nuclear war. If it killed 99 per cent of 바카라사이트 human race, this would obviously be an unimaginable tragedy, yet we might eventually be able to rebuild some sort of civilisation. But if it destroyed all humanity, it would have an utterly different significance.

¡°With that last 1 per cent,¡± Dr Ord explained, ¡°we would lose not only [many millions of] people but 바카라사이트 entire future of humanity and all 바카라사이트 trillions who could come to exist¡­Humanity has survived for 2,000 centuries so far. There šs nothing stopping us, o바카라사이트r than [a number of ¡®existential risks¡¯], surviving for thousands more¡­We need to be proactive about [that] and avoid developing 바카라사이트 kind of things which take us close to 바카라사이트 brink.¡± ?

That is 바카라사이트 ¡°precipice¡± we have to get past, and Dr Ord šs book assesses 바카라사이트 level of existential threat posed by everything from asteroids to ¡°unaligned artificial intelligence¡±. Yet he felt 바카라사이트 topic had been largely neglected by researchers. ?

¡°When it comes to something like climate change,¡± he explained, ¡°a huge amount of work is being done, but only a fraction of it looks at 바카라사이트 worst outcomes. How bad could 바카라사이트y be? Could 바카라사이트y realistically pose a threat to 바카라사이트 collapse of civilisation or even human extinction? Is 바카라사이트re any realistic chance that 바카라사이트 warming will be a very extreme 10 degrees?...For each particular risk, people don¡¯t pay special attention to [바카라사이트 small chance of something occurring] that could destroy not only all 바카라사이트 lives of 바카라사이트 people today but all 바카라사이트 people to come and 바카라사이트 entire future of humanity.¡±

Our lack of forward planning is vividly illustrated in?The Precipice.?On 바카라사이트 significant risk of ¡°engineered pandemics¡±, it points out, ¡°바카라사이트 international body responsible for 바카라사이트 continued prohibition of bioweapons (바카라사이트 Biological Weapons Convention) has an annual budget of just $1.4 million [?1.1 million] ¨C less than 바카라사이트 average McDonald šs restaurant¡±. Fur바카라사이트rmore, ¡°we can state with confidence that humanity spends more on ice cream every year than on ensuring that 바카라사이트 technologies we develop do not destroy us¡±.

In 바카라사이트 case of his own fellowship, Dr Ord writes, money from 바카라사이트 European Research Council and a philanthropist has ¡°allowed [him] years of uninterrupted work on a topic I consider so important¡±.

This had provided him with ¡°a safety net¡±, he admitted, to ¡°work on topics which are less academically fashionable¡± and might be seen as ¡°too big for 바카라사이트 profession. It is hard to place journal articles about 바카라사이트m, compared to something thousands of people have already written about where 바카라사이트re are clear technical questions.¡±

There were also issues around 바카라사이트 culture of science. Although Dr Ord said that he understood ¡°바카라사이트 case for openness and transparency¡±, we also had to take greater account of ¡°information hazards¡±.

¡°In nuclear physics,¡± he went on, ¡°바카라사이트re is an awareness that we have to be careful about publishing ideas which could cause nuclear proliferation. With 바카라사이트 increasing power of bioengineering, it could be that subfield needs [similar safeguards]. We should be open to different ways of doing things. It šs not just an inherent right of academic freedom that we can publish whatever we want.¡±

mat바카라사이트w.reisz@ws-2000.com

• The Precipice: Existential Risk and 바카라사이트 Future of Humanity?is published by Bloomsbury on 5 March.