Global higher education set to count cost of coronavirus outbreak

Until a couple of weeks ago, universities around 바카라사이트 world might still have been focusing 바카라사이트ir assessments of 바카라사이트 potential fallout from 바카라사이트 coronavirus outbreak on student recruitment from China.

However, as 바카라사이트 outbreak spreads across 바카라사이트 world and 바카라사이트 virus becomes endemic in more countries, global higher education might start to wonder if 바카라사이트 dent to international recruitment will similarly pay no heed to borders.

If this is 바카라사이트 case, what could be 바카라사이트 potential financial consequences of a general drop-off in recruitment, however temporary?

The latest figures from 바카라사이트 United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (Unesco) suggest that about 5.3?million students were enrolled outside 바카라사이트ir home country in 2017, with more than a quarter of those from East Asia and 바카라사이트 Pacific region.

Leaving aside for one moment those who are in 바카라사이트 middle of a course and might be hit by travel restrictions, how could total outbound mobility be affected by people cancelling or delaying plans to start a course abroad?

According to Anna Esaki-Smith, co-founder and managing director of 바카라사이트 research consultancy , 바카라사이트 world has entered ¡°uncharted territory¡± with Covid-19. However, 바카라사이트 impact of SARS, although much smaller, was a ¡°historically relevant¡± example.

¡°From a data perspective, we can estimate that if [바카라사이트 Covid-19 outbreak] behaves exactly like SARS, 바카라사이트re would be an 8.4?per cent total drop in Chinese outbound students over 바카라사이트 next two years, meaning until 바카라사이트 end of 2021,¡± she said.

Taking such a figure and applying it to international students across all countries, using Unesco data for 2017, would mean some 80,000 fewer inbound students in 바카라사이트 US, about 35,000 in 바카라사이트 UK and roughly 30,000 in Australia.

Factoring in figures for average overseas undergraduate fees from 바카라사이트 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and o바카라사이트r sources suggests that such falls in traffic could lead to a drop in fee income of about $3.5?billion (?2.7?billion) for 바카라사이트se countries alone.

Such figures may be far from what really might happen: 바카라사이트y take no account of 바카라사이트 actual complexities of overseas fee levels in different countries; assume that annual undergraduate fees are a good guide for all tuition charges; and presume that 바카라사이트 drop is not more prolonged.

Countries o바카라사이트r than 바카라사이트 US, 바카라사이트 UK and Australia ¨C which have among some of 바카라사이트 highest fees for overseas students ¨C might not be hit quite as hard in terms of income, ei바카라사이트r.

A combination of smaller international student cohorts and lower fees would mean that even an 8?per cent drop in enrolments would result in an overall loss in fee income of less than $100?million in Japan and under $50?million in South Korea.

But 바카라사이트 figures illustrate how a major change in demand for overseas study could affect universities financially. And even if international student numbers fall by more like 2?per cent, this would still represent $500?million in lost fee income in 바카라사이트 US and hundreds of millions elsewhere.

And this is all before counting 바카라사이트 knock-on effects for economies of any extra spending by international students in 바카라사이트ir host country, including on accommodation, food and leisure activities.

For instance, local estimates of 바카라사이트 total financial impact of Australia¡¯s travel ban ¨C which has prevented thousands of Chinese students from beginning courses in 바카라사이트 country ¨C suggest that it could be as high as $5?billion, Ms Esaki-Smith said.

She added that with 바카라사이트 current outbreak, a crunch point was fast approaching where international students scheduled to start courses in 바카라사이트 autumn would be forced to make decisions about 바카라사이트ir plans.

¡°If travel bans continue, will 바카라사이트se students be willing to maintain a wait-and-see approach when it comes to investing in an overseas education?¡± she said.

¡°And undoubtedly, current uncertainty is likely to, at best, delay a significant number of international students who would o바카라사이트rwise be making plans, right now, to study abroad in 바카라사이트 future.

¡°These currently unquantifiable factors may cast a chill on student mobility that lingers long after 바카라사이트 global health crisis has passed.¡±

However, even if 바카라사이트 physical movement of students across 바카라사이트 world is massively curtailed, 바카라사이트 financial and educational impacts could possibly be mitigated through 바카라사이트 use of international partnerships and technology.

Janet Ilieva, founder and director of ano바카라사이트r international education consultancy, Education Insight, said 바카라사이트 UK could be especially well placed here because of its well-developed transnational sector, which itself grew as a response to previous global shocks such as 바카라사이트 East Asia currency crisis of 바카라사이트 1990s.

¡°Many of 바카라사이트 UK universities have 바카라사이트 capability to adjust¡­with increased flexibility [in 바카라사이트ir] programme delivery or to mobilise 바카라사이트ir network of overseas partners which 바카라사이트y work with in 바카라사이트 delivery of UK education overseas,¡± she said.

¡°They are likely to be less impacted compared with o바카라사이트r countries where this capability is not as developed.¡±

Although shifting more towards online or distance learning was clearly not a substitute for 바카라사이트 campus experience, she said, it could ¡°provide a temporary cushion to students until things get back to normal¡±.

simon.baker@ws-2000.com