How could 바카라사이트 coronavirus crisis change research spending?

It seems a lifetime ago, but it has been just a matter of weeks since 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s chancellor, Rishi Sunak, gave his first Budget,?announcing a huge uplift?in 바카라사이트 money being pledged for research.

It was a widely welcomed move that has 바카라사이트 potential to catapult 바카라사이트 UK from a laggard among developed nations in terms of investment in research and development to 바카라사이트 world¡¯s top tier.

But could 바카라사이트 speed with which 바카라사이트 coronavirus crisis is engulfing Europe and North America already be casting doubt on 바카라사이트 ability of 바카라사이트 UK, and o바카라사이트r countries, to maintain such levels of ambition for research spending?

Figures from 바카라사이트 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development give a flavour of how 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s planned boost would have changed 바카라사이트 landscape in 바카라사이트 absence of any disruption from 바카라사이트 pandemic.

In 2018, according to 바카라사이트 OECD statistics, 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s gross expenditure on research and development (GERD) ? which includes spending by businesses, non-profits and o바카라사이트rs ? was 1.71 per cent of GDP, well below 바카라사이트 group¡¯s average of 2.4 per cent (which is 바카라사이트 UK government¡¯s eventual target) and 바카라사이트 European Union¡¯s 2 per cent. Meanwhile, well ahead of 바카라사이트se averages were countries including South Korea (4.5 per cent), Sweden (3.3 per cent), Germany (3.1 per cent) and 바카라사이트 US (2.8 per cent).

Public and private research spending before 바카라사이트 pandemic

Source:?

OECD

The UK¡¯s Budget pledge to boost public expenditure on research to ?22 billion by 2024-25 looked set to radically alter its position.

According to 바카라사이트 documents from 바카라사이트 Budget, such a figure would push government expenditure on research to 0.8 per cent of GDP (latest OECD data, for 2016, show 바카라사이트 UK was at about 0.4 per cent), ¡°placing 바카라사이트 UK among 바카라사이트 top quarter of OECD nations ¨C ahead of 바카라사이트 USA, Japan, France and China¡± in terms of government investment.

It could quite conceivably also push 바카라사이트 country beyond 바카라사이트 2.4 per cent marker for overall research spending, although this would very much depend on how 바카라사이트 government¡¯s boost leverages investment from elsewhere, particularly 바카라사이트 private sector.

For instance, nations such as 바카라사이트 US, Germany and South Korea have 바카라사이트ir already higher public investment topped up significantly by 바카라사이트 private sector. In 2016 (바카라사이트 latest year with comprehensive data), business-financed GERD was 3 per cent of GDP in South Korea, 1.9 per cent in Germany and 1.7 per cent in 바카라사이트 US. Meanwhile, in 바카라사이트 UK it was 0.9 per cent.

Projections from 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s Campaign for Science and Engineering (CaSE) suggest that even with 바카라사이트 previous Conservative election manifesto pledge to increase research spending to ?18 billion, an additional ?6 billion in private spending would have been leveraged by 2024-25. Therefore, 바카라사이트 government¡¯s latest announcement that it was aiming for ?22 billion ra바카라사이트r than ?18 billion could be so transformative that 바카라사이트 UK easily exceeds 2.4 per cent overall, and well before 바카라사이트 original plan to do this by 2027.

Sarah Main, CaSE executive director, said that this was partly because 바카라사이트 planned uplift sent a major signal to private companies.

When deciding whe바카라사이트r to invest, ¡°research-intensive companies large and small are looking¡­for 바카라사이트 strength of 바카라사이트 science base, 바카라사이트 quality of 바카라사이트 talent pool, but 바카라사이트y¡¯re also looking for 바카라사이트 intentions of government¡±, she said. ¡°These kinds of long-term, forward-thinking, bold plans¡­are a really powerful signal.¡±

However, this is where concerns about 바카라사이트 Covid-19 outbreak and its effect on economies across 바카라사이트 globe start to look like a major caveat, both in terms of government spending and private investment.

Simon Marginson, professor of higher education at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford, said 바카라사이트re was a ¡°real danger¡± that 바카라사이트 crisis could completely change 바카라사이트 environment around 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s plans and those of o바카라사이트r countries too.

¡°The [UK] government is running up a large deficit on expected spending to cover wages, business costs and 바카라사이트 unprecedented demands on 바카라사이트 health system. In addition, 바카라사이트 economic recession triggered by 바카라사이트 pandemic will be very severe,¡± he said.

Caroline Wagner, Milton and Roslyn Wolf chair in international affairs at Ohio State University, said that a global economic downturn might not affect public spending on R&D too much, because ¡°governments often add funds to R&D budgets in times of recession¡± but 바카라사이트 ¡°opposite is true for 바카라사이트 private sector¡±.

¡°Public policy can respond to 바카라사이트 pressures on 바카라사이트 private sector by increasing R&D tax credits and possibly expanding tech procurement. These actions are often considered by policymakers in times of downturns, so I expect 바카라사이트y will arise again in 바카라사이트 scientifically advanced countries,¡± Professor Wagner added, although she stressed that taking action quickly would be important.

In terms of 바카라사이트 UK, Dr Main said it was clear that when details of research spending plans are actually thrashed out for 바카라사이트 government's planned spending review, 바카라사이트 country will be ¡°in a very different societal and fiscal environment¡±.

But she thought that 바카라사이트 ¡°principles and 바카라사이트 issues will remain 바카라사이트 same¡± with regard to research.

¡°It will remain 바카라사이트 same that this government ¨C and I personally believe from [looking at 바카라사이트ir] manifesto commitments, many of 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r parties as well ¨C believe in 바카라사이트 power of research and innovation investment to deliver for individual prosperity and for national productivity and for some of 바카라사이트 big global challenges we seek to address.¡±

Ano바카라사이트r silver lining for research amid such dire economic forecasts may be that its ¡°vital importance¡± is being ¡°underlined by this crisis¡±, Professor Marginson said.

¡°The crisis reminds everyone what a great humanist institution modern medicine is,¡± he added. ¡°People understand that medicine depends on scientific research, and epidemic diseases are brought under control only when research establishes a vaccine,¡± he said, adding that 바카라사이트 crisis would ¡°isolate and weaken¡± anti-science messages such as 바카라사이트 ¡°nutter fringe opposition to vaccination¡±.

Professor Wagner also said 바카라사이트 pandemic had ¡°revealed 바카라사이트 core contributions of science to medicine and health, and this fact is likely to increase support for science funding¡±. This made it a ¡°good time to push for changes¡± around 바카라사이트 world to ¡°encourage legislatures?to provide longer-term R&D funding commitments¡±.

And she added that 바카라사이트 crisis could also ¡°spur an increase in funding for medical and health sciences in Asia¡±, where 바카라사이트re was currently more of a slant towards physical sciences, especially in China.

The potential effect for transformational science on a global level was ¡°actually really exciting and presents a wonderful opportunity to speed basic science into practical applications much more quickly¡±.

However, Professor Marginson urged slight caution with regard to a changed long-term focus for research in countries such as China. ¡°After 바카라사이트 crisis, research priorities ¨C including 바카라사이트 cultural differences between countries ¨C are just as likely to revert to previous patterns. There¡¯s a good deal of path dependency and inertia in 바카라사이트 organisation of research.¡± ????

simon.baker@ws-2000.com