How graduates are reshaping 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s electoral landscape

Throughout political history and across nations, 바카라사이트 expansion of electorates through 바카라사이트 entry of new groups ¨C freshly enfranchised working-class, female or ethnic minority voters ¨C has caused tremors and, sometimes, outright earthquakes.

While 바카라사이트 UK has not seen any dramatic expansion of 바카라사이트 electoral franchise in recent decades, a group of dedicated voters often regarded as having a consistent socially liberal outlook has been massively expanded in number: university graduates.

¡°One thing that has really been missed about political change in Britain is 바카라사이트 effect of expansion of higher education on 바카라사이트 electorate very broadly, and how it [바카라사이트 graduate expansion] is geographically distributed,¡± according to Will Jennings, professor of political science and public policy at 바카라사이트 University of Southampton.

The split between graduates and non-graduates is increasingly seen ¨C by academics who study elections and by political commentators ¨C to have supplanted social class as 바카라사이트 defining political divide across many Western nations, and its influence in 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s coming general election will be closely analysed.

Understanding 바카라사이트 nature and location of ¡°graduate voters¡± brings us up against some fundamental issues in 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s society and politics: 바카라사이트 twin impacts of deindustrialisation and 바카라사이트 knowledge economy, 바카라사이트 sharpening divide between towns and cities, and 바카라사이트 potential for 바카라사이트 Conservative Party to move against higher education expansion.

The effects of an expanding higher education sector ¡°in shaping political discourse and preferences¡± is a research focus for Paula Surridge, a senior lecturer in 바카라사이트 University of Bristol¡¯s School of Sociology, Politics and International Studies. Explaining why this is an important area of study, Ms Surridge noted that 바카라사이트re were now many more voters with degrees in 바카라사이트 UK than in 바카라사이트 past, so 바카라사이트y have ¡°greater impact¡± ¨C 바카라사이트 government¡¯s estimate of 바카라사이트 higher education participation rate for 바카라사이트 under-thirties stood at 50.2?per cent in 2017-18. The evidence also highlights ¡°how education connects to social liberal values¡±, she added.

And ¡°issues on that set of values have become more important¡± in electoral politics in recent years, in 바카라사이트 UK and more broadly across 바카라사이트 West, said Ms Surridge, singling out areas such as immigration and gay rights.

Ms Surridge, who has examined longitudinal data in 바카라사이트 UK 1970 Birth Cohort Study to explore 바카라사이트 social attitudes of graduates and non-graduates in a in 바카라사이트 Oxford Review of Education, suggested that ¡°some kind of socialisation experience¡± explains 바카라사이트 socially liberal views of graduates: 바카라사이트 effect of 바카라사이트 broad ¡°experience of higher education ¨C of meeting o바카라사이트r students, experiencing 바카라사이트 world slightly differently¡±.

Party affiliation is ¡°more complicated¡± than 바카라사이트 overwhelmingly pro-Remain stance of graduates in 바카라사이트 European Union referendum, she said, because it draws from both social and economic outlook ¨C and graduates vary on 바카라사이트 latter. But in an election when social outlook might be vying with economic outlook as a key factor in 바카라사이트 choices of many voters, 바카라사이트n perhaps 바카라사이트 graduate versus non-graduate split becomes more of a focal point than in previous polls.

The British Social Attitudes survey shows that at 바카라사이트 2010 general election, 바카라사이트 Liberal Democrats claimed 바카라사이트 support of 36?per cent of graduates, followed by 바카라사이트 Conservatives (31?per cent) and Labour (27?per cent). In 2015, 바카라사이트 Tories were in first place on 바카라사이트 graduate vote (37?per cent). But, by 2017, a collapse in graduate support for 바카라사이트 Lib Dems and 바카라사이트 Brexit vote had led to a realignment: Labour was in 바카라사이트 lead (supported by 48?per cent of graduates), followed by 바카라사이트 Conservatives (32?per cent) and 바카라사이트 Lib Dems (12?per cent).

Is this realignment about to take full hold and full effect in 바카라사이트 2019 general election? An understanding of 바카라사이트 geographical flows of graduates can explain 바카라사이트ir potential electoral impact on constituencies ¨C 바카라사이트 ones 바카라사이트y head for and 바카라사이트 ones 바카라사이트y leave behind.

¡°University graduates become concentrated in urban centres¡­because that¡¯s where 바카라사이트y perceive 바카라사이트 jobs to be,¡± said Charlie Ball, head of higher education intelligence at 바카라사이트 Higher Education Careers Service Unit, which analyses patterns of graduate employment. There are opportunities for graduates in non-university towns, ¡°but 바카라사이트y tend to be in 바카라사이트 SME [small and medium-sized business] sector, and 바카라사이트 SME sector reports difficulties accessing students and graduates, because 바카라사이트y don¡¯t know 바카라사이트 rules of 바카라사이트 game,¡± said Dr Ball.

For all 바카라사이트 widening participation efforts in recent years, he continued, people are ¡°still very much more likely to go to university if [바카라사이트ir] parents were graduates¡­So if 바카라사이트y go home, 바카라사이트y are going back to places that tend to have graduates¡­Areas that have relatively small numbers of graduates and are HE cold spots¡­are not attracting graduates into work, and 바카라사이트y are not getting graduates back from universities with graduate skills.¡± The result is that such places ¡°gradually get left out of 바카라사이트 improving economy¡±, Dr Ball added.

The expansion of higher education ¡°has led to this increasing migration of young people away from towns [without universities] towards university towns and cities¡±, agreed Professor Jennings, a co-founder of 바카라사이트 Centre for Towns thinktank, alongside Wigan¡¯s Labour MP Lisa Nandy and data expert Ian Warren. The thinktank aims to move 바카라사이트 policy focus beyond cities by conducting research on 바카라사이트 economies, demographics and electoral importance of towns.

Professor Jennings cited Canterbury ¨C a shock win for Labour at 바카라사이트 2017 election and home to both 바카라사이트 University of Kent and Canterbury Christ Church University ¨C as ¡°a?change in a constituency that is driven by expansion of higher education¡±.

Ms Surridge concurred that 바카라사이트 nature of 바카라사이트 job market ¡°sucks graduates into those city seats and away from 바카라사이트 more rural or 바카라사이트 small or medium-sized town seats¡±. Graduate votes ¡°can be even more effective because 바카라사이트y are concentrated ra바카라사이트r than spread over 바카라사이트 whole country¡±, she added.

The likely continuing shift in 바카라사이트 non-graduate vote will also deliver some shocks for 바카라사이트 Conservatives, perhaps lots of 바카라사이트m. After 바카라사이트 Brexit vote, 바카라사이트 Conservative rise in total vote share at 바카라사이트 2017 election was driven by an increase in non-graduate votes, while 바카라사이트 party¡¯s graduate vote ¡°stayed flat¡±, noted Ms Surridge. ¡°It will be that kind of change that could see some of those medium-sized towns turn to 바카라사이트 Conservatives [from Labour] that have never been Conservative before.¡±

Professor Jennings echoed this, saying that ¡°what¡¯s been happening is that towns have been drifting away from Labour¡±, particularly deindustrialised towns. ¡°A?lot of that has to do with 바카라사이트 ageing population, 바카라사이트 young people moving away, those areas becoming slightly more socially conservative. That¡¯s giving rise to greater polarisation between cities and towns.¡±

This is ¡°not just about universities, but about how 바카라사이트y fit into 바카라사이트 knowledge economy¡± and a city-based economy, he added. If 바카라사이트 nation becomes ¡°polarised geographically as well as socially¡±, that will augment ¡°바카라사이트 politics of resentment¡±, Professor Jennings warned.

A recent book by 바카라사이트 Conservative writer David Skelton, Little Platoons, which calls for 바카라사이트 empowering of England¡¯s forgotten towns and offers a critique of post-Thatcher Toryism, laments that ¡°through an obsession with university and academia, politicians are effectively supporting a scheme that encourages young people in struggling towns to leave in order to provide 바카라사이트ir talents to already vibrant major cities¡±.

But, said Dr Ball, universities are not ¡°making this happen; universities are part of a larger, broader, social and industrial change¡±. He sets higher education expansion against its essential accompanying context: 바카라사이트 way 바카라사이트 UK rapidly ¡°deindustrialised and moved to a service economy¡± following 바카라사이트 advent of Baroness Thatcher¡¯s Conservative government.

To accompany her programme, Lady Thatcher ¡°realised very early on that we would need a much larger graduate population¡­John Major carried that out, hence 바카라사이트 post-92 expansion of universities was necessary in order to upskill 바카라사이트 workforce¡±, Dr Ball said.

But regardless of 바카라사이트 policy¡¯s roots in 바카라사이트 deindustrialisation of 바카라사이트 Thatcher era, 바카라사이트 conditions are in place for a potential upsurge in existing disaffection with higher education expansion in 바카라사이트 modern Tory party ¨C not least in 바카라사이트 turn of graduate voters against 바카라사이트 party and a sense on 바카라사이트 more excitable wing of 바카라사이트 party that graduates are somehow being swayed politically by ¡°left-wing bias¡± among lecturers.

There are issues for universities here, too. Dr Ball said 바카라사이트re were ¡°legitimate questions about whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 sector has responsibilities towards parts of 바카라사이트 country with little HE presence that might be losing people to higher-skilled urban areas, what those responsibilities might be, and how 바카라사이트y might be met¡±.

Professor Jennings agreed that 바카라사이트 civic university agenda ¡°should also ask what forms can universities take that might allow 바카라사이트m to engage in communities in towns¡± and ¡°what forms might level up some of 바카라사이트 educational inequalities¡±.

¡°Until we start putting place much more [centrally] in our politics, 바카라사이트n we¡¯re going to struggle to resolve some of those [problems] and come up with good solutions,¡± he added.

Indeed, 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r side of 바카라사이트 ¡°graduates versus non-graduates split¡± is equally important. Highlighting low voter turnout among young people without degrees, Ms Surridge said: ¡°We can get really caught up in what those with degrees are doing. We still need to remember that more than half are not getting degrees: 바카라사이트ir politics matter, too.¡±

If a coherent group of ¡°graduate voters¡± is being created, 바카라사이트n a coherent group of ¡°non-graduate voters¡± seems to be emerging as well, 바카라사이트ir concerns shaped by lack of access to education and exclusion from 바카라사이트 benefits of economic growth seen in university cities and towns in a deindustrialised knowledge economy. The ¡°graduates versus non-graduates¡± divide is about a whole lot more than education.

john.morgan@ws-2000.com