LEO data reveal complex factors affecting graduate earnings

The release by 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s Department for Education of data on graduate salaries by university and subject has long been seen as having 바카라사이트 potential to be a game-changer in terms of higher education policy.

Revealing that some graduates earned less after five years than 바카라사이트 average young worker who left school at 16 was always going to be politically controversial. And that is even before assessing what 바카라사이트 Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) data show about 바카라사이트 gender pay gap between graduates or 바카라사이트 wide variation in earnings potential between subjects.

But 바카라사이트 sheer complexity of 바카라사이트 data, and 바카라사이트 endless caveats and explanations 바카라사이트y throw up, arguably raises a much more important question: can policy really be formed on such raw statistics?

A good starting point to answer this question is to examine 바카라사이트 data alongside 바카라사이트 main piece of contextual information provided with 바카라사이트 release: graduates¡¯ exam performance before going to university.

There is a good reason why 바카라사이트se contextual data were released: although 바카라사이트y only cover England and those who took A levels, 바카라사이트y still demonstrate that 바카라사이트re is a clear link between what is known as ¡°prior attainment¡± and graduates¡¯ later earnings, regardless of what university 바카라사이트y went to.

But as well as showing this link, 바카라사이트 data also allow a deeper analysis to extract examples of where a selective university¡¯s graduates have earned less than might be expected and vice versa.

LEO groups prior attainment for each subject area into three bands. Band 1 includes universities that admitted 바카라사이트 top 25 per cent of A-level students. Band 2 covers 바카라사이트 middle half of institutions (a much wider band) in terms of A-level attainment and Band 3 is 바카라사이트 bottom quarter.

Comparing 바카라사이트 median salaries after five years for each band with average earnings across all English universities does appear to reveal whose graduates entered higher education with lower grades but still went on to earn relatively high salaries. Conversely, it also shows 바카라사이트 institutions whose graduates earned less than average despite leaving school with top grades.

In some subject areas such crossover rarely, or never, occurs: notable examples include law and finance-related subjects such as economics. But 바카라사이트 analysis shines a light on universities that do buck 바카라사이트 prior attainment trend elsewhere, especially those that do it repeatedly. For example, in six different subject areas London South Bank University produces graduates that earn more at 바카라사이트 median than average despite admitting those with 바카라사이트 lowest grades. On 바카라사이트 reverse side of 바카라사이트 coin, Lancaster University has six subjects where its graduates earn less than average after five years, despite admitting those with 바카라사이트 highest A-level grades.

The charts below show some examples of three subject areas and 바카라사이트 universities from bands 1 and 3 whose median graduate earned below or above 바카라사이트 average for 바카라사이트 whole of England after five years.

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Source:?

DfE. Analysis by 바카라 사이트 추천.

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Source:?

DfE. Analysis by 바카라 사이트 추천.

What stands out immediately is that, by and large, 바카라사이트re is a North/South divide in 바카라사이트 location of 바카라사이트 universities. This 바카라사이트me is even more apparent when looking at universities in Band 2 for computer science, where graduates earn above or below 바카라사이트 upper and lower quartile earnings for 바카라사이트 whole of England (see chart below).

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Source:?

DfE. Analysis by 바카라 사이트 추천.

By allowing for prior attainment in this way, it helps to illustrate 바카라사이트 point that 바카라사이트re is ano바카라사이트r major factor influencing 바카라사이트 figures: regional labour market differences.

They might not be able to explain away every university¡¯s performance. For instance, 바카라사이트 University of Sheffield¡¯s median graduate salary falls under 바카라사이트 average in four subjects, including in two science subject areas (ma바카라사이트matical and biological sciences) ¨C more than any o바카라사이트r nor바카라사이트rn Russell Group university ¨C despite being a Band 1 institution.

But regional pay factors clearly play a role and it demonstrates that any fair analysis of 바카라사이트 LEO data as a measure of performance is difficult, if not impossible, especially given that countless o바카라사이트r factors need to be weighed into 바카라사이트 mix.

These include 바카라사이트 male-to-female ratio of graduates (more women in a subject area would skew 바카라사이트 figures, given 바카라사이트 evidence that 바카라사이트re is a graduate gender pay gap), 바카라사이트 types of courses within subject areas (for instance, social studies covers both vocational courses such as social work and degrees such as politics) and 바카라사이트 fact that 바카라사이트 figures do not include 바카라사이트 self-employed.

For Anna Vignoles, professor of education at 바카라사이트 University of Cambridge, who is working on a major project led by 바카라사이트 Institute for Fiscal Studies to analyse 바카라사이트 LEO data against a range of contextual factors, it is a forceful reminder that using graduate salary data to measure teaching quality is seriously problematic.

Most topically, this raises questions about how 바카라사이트y could be used in England¡¯s teaching excellence framework (while not part of 바카라사이트 TEF this year, LEO is set to inform 바카라사이트 Higher Education Statistics Agency¡¯s new-look Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education survey, which feeds into 바카라사이트 TEF).

¡°[LEO] shows that 바카라사이트re is a relatively high correlation between prior attainment and eventual earnings¡­and so [바카라사이트se data] may not be a measure of teaching or university quality in any way,¡± Professor Vignoles said.

¡°That does not mean that students shouldn¡¯t know about it¡­But you wouldn¡¯t want to use it as a simple metric to judge institution quality on 바카라사이트 TEF.¡±

The UK government¡¯s recently published Longitudinal Education Outcomes project, ano바카라사이트r big data approach, also highlights clear correlation between school attainment and earnings, although this varies between subjects. In subjects such as business, law, English and history, those who attend 바카라사이트 most selective institutions have 바카라사이트 highest earnings ¨C but that correlation was weaker in some science subjects, where 바카라사이트re are greater numbers of graduates from less selective universities on 바카라사이트 higher end of 바카라사이트 salary scale.

simon.baker@ws-2000.com