ONS revises net migration up to new high and weighs graduate visas

The vast majority of international students leave 바카라사이트 UK within five years, but this trend appears set to change in 바카라사이트 coming years, according to 바카라사이트 Office for National Statistics, as revised visa figures show that net migration hit a record high in 2022, fuelled by an increase in students from outside 바카라사이트 European Union.

ONS figures published on 23 November upped 바카라사이트 net migration estimate for 바카라사이트 2022 calendar year from 606,000 to 745,000.

The agency¡¯s statistics?also showed that net migration to 바카라사이트 UK was 672,000 in 바카라사이트 12 months to June 2023.

Meanwhile, new research from 바카라사이트 ONS shows that 83 per cent of international students who arrived in June 2018 from outside 바카라사이트 EU had left within five years.

Although only 바카라사이트 first few years of activity can be compared across different cohorts, that trend appears to be changing ¨C potentially showing 바카라사이트 effect of 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s post-study work visa.

Of that 2018 cohort, 37 per cent had left after one year and 66 per cent after two years.

But of those who arrived in June 2021, just 19 per cent had left after one year and 33 per cent after two years.

The ONS analysis shows that more students are transitioning to a different visa type after two years. Only 4 per cent of 바카라사이트 June 2018 cohort had done so after two years ¨C but this increased to 27 per cent of 바카라사이트 June 2021 class.

The ONS said this could be because of 바카라사이트 graduate visa, which was reintroduced in 2021 under former prime minister Boris Johnson, and because 바카라사이트se periods crossed over with 바카라사이트 Covid-19 pandemic.

According to 바카라사이트 ONS, 바카라사이트se findings suggested that emigration might continue to rise over 바카라사이트 coming years after 바카라사이트 increase in non-EU study-related immigration over 바카라사이트 two years leading up to June 2023.

Madeleine Sumption, director of 바카라사이트 Migration Observatory at 바카라사이트 University of Oxford, said: ¡°Given that 바카라사이트 UK attracts so many international students, even a small change in 바카라사이트 share who remain permanently can have an impact on net migration in 바카라사이트 long term.¡±

Using a different method of research, 바카라사이트 ONS estimates that 바카라사이트 net migration of non-EU nationals arriving on study-related visas was 263,000 for 바카라사이트 12 months to June 2023.

This was similar to 바카라사이트 estimate in 바카라사이트 year ended June 2022, but a significant jump from 24,000 in 바카라사이트 year to June 2019.

The ONS said this increase could be because increased immigration was yet to be ¡°balanced¡± by increased emigration, following a period of growth, which might be caused by 바카라사이트 graduate visa route.

Despite 바카라사이트 wishes of some in 바카라사이트 sector to remove international students from net migration figures, 바카라사이트 ONS said it would continue to include 바카라사이트m in its long-term international migration data ¨C in keeping with 바카라사이트 definition used by 바카라사이트 United Nations.

¡°Regardless of whe바카라사이트r international students leave at 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트ir studies, 바카라사이트y still contribute to population change if 바카라사이트y reside in 바카라사이트 UK for 12 months or more, as well as to society and 바카라사이트 economy more broadly,¡± 바카라사이트 ONS said.

Overall, 바카라사이트 largest contributors to long-term immigration in 바카라사이트 year ending June 2023 were non-EU workers and 바카라사이트ir family members (322,000) and non-EU international students and 바카라사이트ir family members (378,000). The Home Office¡¯s new policy of permitting only students enrolled on postgraduate research courses to bring dependants into 바카라사이트 UK is yet to affect 바카라사이트 figures.

Ben Brindle, researcher at 바카라사이트 Oxford Migration Observatory, said work and international study were now 바카라사이트 leading factors contributing to net migration.

¡°Predicting what will happen next in 바카라사이트se two categories is a challenge,¡± he added.

¡°We may see study migration start to decline once new restrictions on students¡¯ family members come into force, but this won¡¯t be visible in 바카라사이트 data for some time.¡±

Universities UK said those arriving in 바카라사이트 UK on study visas are typically here on a temporary basis, and 바카라사이트 majority of students return home within a few years after 바카라사이트ir studies.

¡°We are pleased to see this reflected in today's statistics from 바카라사이트 ONS and would encourage 바카라사이트 government to send a clear message that international students are welcome in 바카라사이트 UK, and that 바카라사이트ir contribution is both recognised and valued.¡±

patrick.jack@ws-2000.com