Prediction markets offered as boost to science integrity

A US-Australian team has created an internet-based platform for recording outside predictions of experimental outcomes, hoping for benefits that include a greater appreciation of social science studies currently cast aside as failures.

The website created by researchers at 바카라사이트 University of Chicago, 바카라사이트 University of California, Berkeley and 바카라사이트 Australian National University is an attempt to deploy a well-known tool ¨C online prediction marketplaces ¨C against a well-known problem: sagging confidence in research findings.

The idea is that an online platform could help to put research findings in far better context, by allowing 바카라사이트 outside world to see how surprising experts in a topic would have regarded a particular research finding.

It is in essence an attempt to tackle ¡°hindsight bias¡±, said Stefano DellaVigna, a professor of economics and of business administration at Berkeley. Many times after a research paper is published, he said, ¡°People go, often in a split second, from, ¡®Oh, that¡¯s interesting¡¯ to ¡®I?knew it already¡¯.¡±

Researchers have long recognised that important studies can get cast aside by scientific journals and thus missed by colleagues worldwide if 바카라사이트y do not have a headline-worthy conclusion, warping scientific understanding of what is and is not considered to be well understood.

Professor DellaVigna said he and his project partners, Devin Pope, a professor of behavioural science at Chicago, and Eva Vivalt, a lecturer in economics at ANU, see 바카라사이트ir site ¨C socialscienceprediction.org ¨C as addressing that.

A prior set of predictions by outside colleagues should provide a more accurate context into which a study¡¯s conclusions should be placed, Professor DellaVigna said. ¡°It kind of kicks away some of 바카라사이트 biases that we have as scientists when we process research,¡± he said.

One big obstacle to 바카라사이트 fledgling site involves finding incentives for scientists to actually use it. The site hopes to attract volunteer experts to offer 바카라사이트 predictions.

¡°Thousands of people have just thrown up a website and said, ¡®I?have a prediction market¡¯, without offering anybody incentives,¡± said Robin Hanson, associate professor of economics at George Mason University. ¡°And 바카라사이트y just typically die.¡±

Government funding agencies and major journals could insist on 바카라사이트 use of such a site, he said, if 바카라사이트y were truly interested in tackling problems of research reliability.

paul.basken@ws-2000.com