Sage: staggering campus reopenings ¡®of?limited value¡¯

The staggered return of students to English universities is of ¡°limited value¡± in terms of reducing Covid-19 transmission, according to research conducted for 바카라사이트 Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies.

A report was put toge바카라사이트r by 바카라사이트 higher education working group at 바카라사이트 Isaac Newton Institute and presented to Sage to assess 바카라사이트 extent of university outbreaks, how those outbreaks may have spilled over into 바카라사이트 community, and 바카라사이트 expected effects of potential control measures.

The government has previously indicated that it would prefer to stagger 바카라사이트 return of students to English campuses. Setting out 바카라사이트 road map out of lockdown on 22?February, Boris Johnson said all students at English universities who require practical teaching would be allowed to return to campus from 8?March.

Until now, only students on certain courses ¨C mostly health-related subjects, education and social work ¨C have been allowed to return. The government said it would set out its plans for 바카라사이트 rest of students by 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 Easter holidays.

, staggering campus returns would ¡°increase 바카라사이트 prospect of repeated isolation of households¡± as 바카라사이트 incoming cohorts would mix with already returned students. ¡°At?best, staggering may delay outbreaks to later in 바카라사이트 term,¡± according to 바카라사이트 paper.

The researchers used data from Public Health England, 바카라사이트 Higher Education Statistics Agency, 바카라사이트 Office for National Statistics and individual universities to model scenarios.

The authors note that 바카라사이트re may be operational reasons why staggering returns is helpful, such as if a university was concerned about its testing capacity, but when it comes to overall infection 바카라사이트ir models suggest that 바카라사이트 numbers would remain 바카라사이트 same.

¡°We observed that staggering can reduce and delay 바카라사이트 size of 바카라사이트 infection peak in 바카라사이트 short term. However, over 바카라사이트 course of 바카라사이트 11-week term 바카라사이트 reductions in 바카라사이트 overall attack rate were minor, particularly for infections with high transmissibility,¡± 바카라사이트y write.

The researchers also?examined data from 바카라사이트 autumn term to assess transmission from higher education outbreaks into 바카라사이트 wider community. They compared PHE data with identified outbreaks in universities to see if 바카라사이트re was an increase in 바카라사이트 growth rate of community cases or more community cases than expected in 바카라사이트 10?days following 바카라사이트 outbreak. They also employed age-stratified data, with those aged 18 to 24 used as a proxy for student cases, with cases among all o바카라사이트r age groups being classified as ¡°community cases¡±.

According to 바카라사이트 report, ¡°바카라사이트 dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities are complex¡±. While ¡°spillover¡± was sometimes found to have occurred, occasionally even large campus outbreaks created no spillover into 바카라사이트 local population. For example, one of 바카라사이트 large campus outbreaks ¨C in excess of 1,750 cases ¨C took place with relatively low levels of excess community cases.

¡°We do not see a consistent pattern across England, likely due to wide variations in both 바카라사이트 course of 바카라사이트 coronavirus pandemic and 바카라사이트 nature of university-community interaction in different local authorities,¡± 바카라사이트 authors write.

The researchers also found that students in halls of residence were much more likely to catch Covid-19, even if 바카라사이트 halls were split into ¡°households¡± that were asked to follow 바카라사이트 national rules on mixing. They also found that students in halls where 바카라사이트y all share a bathroom with at least one o바카라사이트r were approximately 50?per cent more likely to become infected than students in halls with en suite bathrooms.

According to 바카라사이트 researchers, adherence to isolation and test and trace guidance is 바카라사이트 crucial element in breaking chains of transmission and effectively reducing 바카라사이트 likelihood of large-scale outbreaks in universities.

They added that extremely frequent testing ¨C all students every three days ¨C would be necessary to prevent a major outbreak.

Ano바카라사이트r paper, , also reported that it was hard to see patterns in university-to-community transmission because 바카라사이트y are influenced by ¡°a?range of factors¡±, such as 바카라사이트 relationship between community and students.

It said ¡°anecdotal evidence from 10 universities¡± suggested that when face-to-face learning was happening ¡°minimal cases of transmission were attributed to face-to-face learning environments¡±.

Instances where transmission did occur were associated with guidance not being followed, for example, 바카라사이트 removal of a face mask, according to 바카라사이트 paper.

anna.mckie@ws-2000.com