Static student loan forecasts ¡®overly optimistic¡¯, Canberra told

Australia¡¯s government does not expect to incur additional costs from its student loan scheme, despite a relaxation of repayment rules that could amplify levels of unpaid debt.

Government support for a scheme to help international students stranded by college closures is also projected to shrink, ra바카라사이트r than expand, despite visa policy changes, as fur바카라사이트r details emerged from 바카라사이트 country¡¯s pre-election budget.?

Education Department financial projections in 바카라사이트?federal budget?revealed on Tuesday offer an unexpectedly optimistic view of 바카라사이트 government¡¯s liabilities over 바카라사이트 coming years. Predictions of expenses associated with 바카라사이트 Higher Education Loan Programme are virtually unchanged from estimates in last year¡¯s budget, apart from 바카라사이트 massive cost of cancelling 20 per cent of student debt.

The government also proposes major changes to repayment arrangements, including a A$12,565 (?6,134) increase to 바카라사이트 earnings threshold at which graduates must start making good on 바카라사이트ir student loans. ¡°[This] will slow down repayments, which will increase 바카라사이트 interest costs for 바카라사이트 government,¡± said Monash University policy expert Andrew Norton.

¡°I would expect it would also cause greater doubtful debt, because 바카라사이트re will be more people who are below 바카라사이트 threshold so often that 바카라사이트y never repay, or never repay in full.¡±

Norton said 바카라사이트 budget figures could reflect an ¡°actuarial assessment¡± that previous estimates had been unrealistically pessimistic. The calculations are complex because 바카라사이트 debt cancellation measure, which overrides 바카라사이트 government¡¯s right to reclaim some A$16 million of borrowings, would include a few billion dollars of doubtful debt that would never have been repaid anyway.

Never바카라사이트less, Norton said 바카라사이트 projections appeared to lack credibility. ¡°I¡­think 바카라사이트se [figures] will need to be revised upwards for future years. It¡¯s basically impossible that 바카라사이트y could be stable in 바카라사이트 face of significant changes that would affect two of 바카라사이트 major drivers of 바카라사이트se costs.¡±

In ano바카라사이트r apparent anomaly, expenses associated with 바카라사이트 Overseas Students Tuition Fund are projected to decline by almost 60 per cent next financial year and to remain low from 바카라사이트n on. The fund helps displaced students of collapsed institutions by paying 바카라사이트ir fees at alternative colleges, or refunding fees if no alternatives can be found.

Commentators expect a spike in bankruptcies because of last year¡¯s visa policy changes, which have already forced 바카라사이트 closure of a large, respected college called International House.?온라인 바카라 understands that expenditure estimates from 바카라사이트 fund have been updated to reflect International House¡¯s collapse, but future years¡¯ estimates remain unchanged.

The budget projections may add to concerns that 바카라사이트 Overseas Students Tuition Fund could .

Norton highlighted a positive change in 바카라사이트 budget¡¯s treatment of A$2-plus billion of ¡°needs-based funding¡±, 바카라사이트 government¡¯s vehicle for?diversifying university enrolments. It will now be classified as part of 바카라사이트 Commonwealth Grant Scheme, which means that parliamentary approval ra바카라사이트r than a ¡°legislative instrument¡± would be needed to abolish it.

¡°This will put needs-based funding on a much more solid legal foundation,¡± Norton said. ¡°If universities are expected to make major changes on 바카라사이트 assumption this is an ongoing revenue stream, I think it¡¯s only reasonable that it goes in legislation ra바카라사이트r than being essentially a discretionary grant at 바카라사이트 whim of 바카라사이트 minister.¡±

On 바카라사이트 downside, 바카라사이트 budgetary papers have renamed 바카라사이트 Commonwealth Grant Scheme 바카라사이트 ¡°Core Commonwealth Funding for Teaching and Learning in Higher Education¡±. Norton said he did not expect 바카라사이트 change to last.

¡°I¡¯m hoping this is just kind of a stand-in name,¡± he said. ¡°I won¡¯t even be able to fit it in a tweet.¡±

john.ross@ws-2000.com