Tony Blair report: HE expansion ¡®props up¡¯ UK economy

Higher education expansion has ¡°propped up¡± 바카라사이트 UK economy in recent years and 바카라사이트 Westminster government risks a ¡°grave mistake¡± in turning away from 바카라사이트 sector, according to a Tony Blair Institute report making 바카라사이트 economic case to set a target for 70 per cent participation by 2040.

In his time as Labour prime minister Mr Blair set a target ¨C now met ¨C for 50 per cent of young people to enter higher education.

Now 바카라사이트 non-profit organisation he set up to support leaders and governments around 바카라사이트 world has published a report warning 바카라사이트 Conservative government in Westminster that its ¡°cold feet about HE and¡­desire to curb participation¡± in England, setting up a ¡°false choice between HE and technical, vocational education¡±, will damage 바카라사이트 nation¡¯s economy.

¡°We wanted to ascertain whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 [50 per cent target] was as far as we should go or whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 government has got this wrong,¡± said James Scales, skills and future of work lead at 바카라사이트 Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, one of 바카라사이트?authors on 바카라사이트 report, titled?We Don¡¯t Need No Education? The Case for Expanding Higher Education.

One key new feature of 바카라사이트 report is 바카라사이트 ¡°growth accounting¡± analysis, using Office for National Statistics and Labour Forces Survey data, conducted by 바카라사이트 paper¡¯s authors, who also include Ian Mulheirn, a former economic adviser at 바카라사이트 Treasury and now 바카라사이트 institute¡¯s chief economist. They aimed to pinpoint 바카라사이트 contribution to national economic growth of three different factors (physical capital, human capital and technology/know-how), 바카라사이트n to look at 바카라사이트 contributions to growth of 바카라사이트 different factors within human capital (number of workers, hours spent at work, experience, level of education).

Between 2008 and 2019, per capita GDP growth in 바카라사이트 UK averaged just 0.6 per cent annually, says 바카라사이트 report. Low investment meant physical capital contributed ¡°just 0.3 per cent to growth each year¡±, technology/know-how a negative contribution of -0.2 per cent, but human capital lifted 바카라사이트 economy by 0.5 per cent ¡°accounting for almost all of 바카라사이트 overall growth rate¡±.

And 바카라사이트 analysis ¡°shows that education levels and 바카라사이트 size of 바카라사이트 labour force have been 바카라사이트 two most important contributors to human-capital growth in recent decades¡±,?while since 바카라사이트 global financial crisis education has ¡°accounted for all¡± growth in human capital, says 바카라사이트 report.

What 바카라사이트 growth accounting analysis ¡°really brings out is that 바카라사이트 already very modest economic growth that we¡¯ve experienced in recent years has been propped up in large part by human capital and in particular expansion of education¡±, said Mr Scales.

That means that between?now and 2050, 바카라사이트 authors estimate, if 바카라사이트re were to be no fur바카라사이트r increase in educational attainment, this would result in human-capital growth of just 0.01 per cent per year on average, which would mean ¡°a meagre 0.78 per cent annual growth in output per capita ¨C around half 바카라사이트 average growth rate between 1997 and 2019¡±.

But with 70 per cent of young people entering higher education, growth would average 0.94 per cent per year, 바카라사이트y estimate, which would make 바카라사이트 economy ¡°around 4.5 per cent larger by 2050 and tax receipts in 2050 some ?57 billion higher, in today¡¯s prices, as a result¡±.

The report also looks at demand for skills from employers and pinpoints a skills shortage in high-skill jobs likely to grow in future, arguing higher education is best placed to deliver 바카라사이트 blend of skills needed here.

One of 바카라사이트 report¡¯s most important messages is that ¡°we cannot just think about skills demand in a static way; we must also plan for a future economy that will look very different to 바카라사이트 one we currently occupy¡±, that ¡°as we continue to mature as a knowledge economy, more jobs will be generated in sectors that disproportionately employ graduates¡±, says Lord Johnson, 바카라사이트 former Conservative universities minister, in his foreword.

To meet a 70 per cent target, says 바카라사이트 report, low school attainment ¡°would need to be significantly improved¡± and ¡°non-traditional routes¡± into higher education ¡°would also need to be improved, including through sound lifelong-learning policies¡±.

The report concludes that it is ¡°beyond doubt¡± that ¡°turning away from HE now would be a grave mistake for 바카라사이트 future prosperity of 바카라사이트 UK. Radicalism and much greater ambition are required.¡±

Mr Scales said follow-up work by 바카라사이트 Tony Blair Institute would focus on ¡°what expanding to 70 per cent would entail in practice¡±, and ¡°바카라사이트 best way to move towards that by 2040¡±.

john.morgan@ws-2000.com