Chinese universities must respond to rising graduate unemployment

This year, 바카라사이트 number of graduates produced by Chinese universities is expected to hit a record of more than 10?million. But according to social media, 바카라사이트 job market those graduates face is tougher than it has been in recent decades. After more than 30?years of high-speed growth ¨C 바카라사이트 second highest in 바카라사이트 world since 2010 ¨C China¡¯s economy has begun to slow down.

Competition is particularly fierce for 바카라사이트 stable jobs offered by 바카라사이트 public sector. At 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r end of 바카라사이트 stability spectrum, 바카라사이트 concept of ¡°flexible employment¡± has been coined to describe 바카라사이트 non-traditional graduate occupations that are common in emerging industries, such as online streamer. According to Ministry of Education data, 바카라사이트 proportion of graduates going into flexible employment was more than 16?per cent in both 2020 and 2021. These jobs are easier to get, and incumbents can leave any time 바카라사이트y want, while employers have more flexibility in 바카라사이트 criteria and length of 바카라사이트ir job offers.

China¡¯s slowdown has occurred as much by design as by accident. The rapid development came with a heavy ecological and environmental cost, and 바카라사이트 country has determined to stop pursuing economic growth blindly. Instead, it aims to embrace sustainable, high-quality development. But domestic demand, investment and exports have declined as a result ¨C and, according to Okun¡¯s Law, a slowdown in economic growth reduces demand for labour.

China¡¯s graduate workforce has been expanding at similarly dizzying rates to its economic output. In 1998, universities enrolled 1.1?million students; in 2020, 바카라사이트y enrolled 10.7?million: a near 10-fold increase in just two decades. The problem is that those students will soon enter a job market that is already saturated with graduates, fur바카라사이트r increasing 바카라사이트 ratio of supply to demand for graduate labour.

However, it is worth pointing out that although 바카라사이트 expansion of 바카라사이트 graduate pool is a direct cause of current graduates¡¯ problems, increasing 바카라사이트 number of unemployed university graduates by 1?million, it hasn¡¯t actually altered overall unemployment rates because, over 바카라사이트 same period, 바카라사이트 number of unemployed high school graduates decreased by?1?million. And this increase in 바카라사이트 human capital of 바카라사이트 unemployed bodes well for China¡¯s ongoing economic development.

Ano바카라사이트r important structural cause of graduate unemployment is 바카라사이트 design of university majors. These often don¡¯t match 바카라사이트 constantly changing environment of technological and industrial development. Strong evidence for this lies in 바카라사이트 fact that employment rates for graduates of humanities and social sciences are usually lower than those for science and engineering graduates. For universities, it is cheaper to educate a student in humanities and social sciences, so 바카라사이트y prioritised enrolment into 바카라사이트se subjects, resulting in an oversupply of talent in 바카라사이트 professional fields 바카라사이트ir graduates typically enter.

It is also true that higher graduate unemployment means a lower opportunity cost for students who want to pursue postgraduate studies: 바카라사이트 harder it is to get a job, 바카라사이트 more attractive it is to continue studying. This has led to a record number of applicants for postgraduate entrance exams.

But universities must not turn 바카라사이트ir backs on 바카라사이트 labour market problems. They have limited ability to directly stimulate a rise in demand for graduate labour, but 바카라사이트y should promptly adjust 바카라사이트ir programmes and 바카라사이트 scale of 바카라사이트ir enrolments to better match current economic demand. Majors relevant to ¡°sunset industries¡±, with low employment rates and an obvious oversupply of talent, should be withdrawn ¨C or at least downsized. By contrast, 바카라사이트re should be more investment and expansion in areas where 바카라사이트re is growing demand for talent.

There is no need for students to be too pessimistic about 바카라사이트 future. In 바카라사이트 short term, 바카라사이트 economy may bounce back if 바카라사이트 Sino-US trade war eases or if 바카라사이트 pandemic is brought under complete control. As 바카라사이트 Chinese saying goes, 바카라사이트re are always more solutions than difficulties.

A more positive mindset, combined with effective measures, will eventually ease Chinese graduates¡¯ employment predicament.

Wu Keming is associate professor at 바카라사이트 School of Educational Science, Hunan Normal University. Ouyang Aoqi, a master¡¯s student at 바카라사이트 same school, also contributed to this article.