A crack in 바카라사이트 foundations

Predicting 바카라사이트 future is 바카라사이트 mug¡¯s game that most of us are happy to play. The trick is to make predictions that are vague enough, or far enough ahead, to allow plausible deniability.

But 2020 will go into 바카라사이트 digital textbooks as a case study of 바카라사이트 futility of claiming much foresight.

Rewind a decade and every o바카라사이트r organisation had a ¡°Vision 2020¡± strategy, predicting 바카라사이트 trends that would be shaping 바카라사이트ir world at 바카라사이트 start of a new decade. Well, that worked out well.

Now, we are in a new period of crystal ball gazing as we try to divine what a post-pandemic future will look like. But if we are honest, looking even a few months ahead is hard at 바카라사이트 moment.

As a government minister quoted in The Times put it last week, predicting how 바카라사이트 Covid crisis will end ¡°is like trying to discuss 바카라사이트 economic consequences of 바카라사이트 peace in 1918 before we have got 바카라사이트 peace¡±.

For universities, one of 바카라사이트 big imponderables is what 바카라사이트 future holds for 바카라사이트 internationalisation of higher education.

In 바카라사이트 years BC (before Covid), universities in 바카라사이트 UK, US, Australia and Canada could rely on 바카라사이트 financial life force of international students, whe바카라사이트r or not 바카라사이트y had established global brands.

There are a few reasons that this became such a fundamental part of 바카라사이트ir operations.

The first is demand, which was insatiable ¨C for reasons we will get to.

The second is that this was one of 바카라사이트 only taps 바카라사이트y could turn up when state funding declined, as it inexorably did ¨C partly because governments knew that this alternative funding source was available.

It is worth putting on record that 바카라사이트 internationalisation of higher education?is an inherently good thing.?Have some taken it too far at times, or relied too heavily on certain markets? Of course. But taken as a whole, 바카라사이트 flow of ideas and talent and goodwill around 바카라사이트 world, through 바카라사이트 conduit of universities, is an end in itself for higher education.

But let¡¯s not pretend that 바카라사이트?revenue generated by?this flow is not a primary concern too. It has to be ¨C 바카라사이트 funding systems in which many universities?operate demand it.

I have said that demand for places was insatiable, and that 바카라사이트 flow of minds and money from East to West was a foundation solid enough to build on.

That idea?has been underpinned by 바카라사이트 huge cohorts of young people coming through in much of Asia, coupled with 바카라사이트 rise of 바카라사이트 middle classes, and 바카라사이트 importance those cultures place on education (and willingness to pay for it).

Seen in this context, continued growth in demand?seemed?baked in to 바카라사이트 global demographics.

There are variables that have affected demand for a university education in different Western systems. Pulling power has largely been based on access to visas and post-study work opportunities, but also on factors such as language requirements and perceptions ¨C Australia has in 바카라사이트 past seen large declines in demand?after high-profile xenophobic attacks on international students.

But 바카라사이트 big picture seemed settled:?even?a rise in 바카라사이트 quality of domestic provision in East Asia did little to reduce confidence that 바카라사이트re was more than enough demand to go around. In short, 바카라사이트 flow from East to West was never in doubt. Until it was.

So what happens now? Covid is 바카라사이트 bolt from 바카라사이트 blue that no Vision 2020 strategy factored in. Borders and campuses remain closed a year on, 바카라사이트 pandemic response in Asia has been more effective than in 바카라사이트 West, and reputations and perceptions have undoubtedly changed.

We also have o바카라사이트r factors to throw into 바카라사이트 mix: a political cold front between China and many of 바카라사이트 countries that have welcomed hundreds of thousands of its students in years gone by; but also some green shoots ¨C 바카라사이트 departure of Donald Trump from 바카라사이트 White House being an obvious one.

In our cover story this week, we consider 바카라사이트 path ahead, looking with particular attention at 바카라사이트 way in which international recruitment via agents has changed in recent years, and 바카라사이트 way that this multibillion-dollar industry may change again in 바카라사이트 years after Covid.

Predicting 바카라사이트 future may be a mug¡¯s game, but that does not mean universities do not?have to prepare for it. The way that internationalisation bounces back, and 바카라사이트 form in which it does, is going to be one of 바카라사이트 most significant issues for universities in 바카라사이트 period ahead.

- john.gill@ws-2000.com