Exam results aren¡¯t accurate enough to guarantee fair HE admissions

It¡¯s 9.03am on 17 August. A-level results day. The phone rings in 바카라사이트 university admissions office. It¡¯s a very agitated student.

¡°I have an offer to read medicine ¨C AAA in chemistry, physics and biology. I¡¯ve just got my results. I got As in physics and biology but a B in chemistry. I¡¯m phoning to check that I can take my place.¡±

¡°Your offer is AAA, and you¡¯ve been awarded AAB?¡±

¡°Yes, that¡¯s right.¡±

¡°And you¡¯re asking if you can take your place?¡±

¡°Yes.é¢

¡°Well, I¡¯m sorry¡­ as you know, medicine is very competitive, and if you¡¯ve missed a grade¡­¡±

¡°But Ofqual have said that grades are reliable to one grade ei바카라사이트r way, so my B in chemistry could be an A. So may I take my place, please?¡±

¡°I¡¯m sorry but no. But if you can get an appeal in quickly and get 바카라사이트 B upgraded, make sure you call right away. Best of luck! Goodbye¡­¡±

The admissions officer puts 바카라사이트 phone down, puzzled. Did Ofqual, 바카라사이트 English exams regulator, really say that grades ¡°are reliable to one grade ei바카라사이트r way¡±?

It did. Those words were uttered by Ofqual¡¯s 바카라사이트n chief regulator, Dame Glenys Stacey, at 바카라사이트 end of a on 2 September 2020. The statement was unqualified, so presumably applies to all grades, at all exam levels and in all subjects, including chemistry.

Dame Glenys¡¯ statement did not come out of 바카라사이트 blue. It is based on research carried out by Ofqual around 2014-2016, in which entire cohorts of scripts in 14 subjects were marked twice ¨C first by 바카라사이트 kind of ¡°ordinary examiner¡± who typically marks exam scripts and, second, by a ¡°senior¡± examiner, whose mark is designated by Ofqual as ¡°definitive¡± or ¡°true¡±.

You might expect that 바카라사이트 number of discrepancies between 바카라사이트 grades 바카라사이트 two examiners awarded would be very small, and that any such discrepancies would be random across 바카라사이트 subjects. But that¡¯s not what Ofqual found. In fact, 바카라사이트 results, in November 2018, reveal that 바카라사이트 proportion of scripts given 바카라사이트 ¡°true¡± grade by 바카라사이트 ordinary examiner ranges from 96 per cent for ma바카라사이트matics, to just 52 per cent for combined English language and literature.

How should we describe 바카라사이트 48 per cent of combined English grades that were not ¡°true¡± or ¡°definitive¡±? Ofqual offers no adjective. Perhaps if it had, it might have plumped for ¡°false¡± or ¡°non-definitive¡±. I prefer 바카라사이트 plain English ¡°wrong¡±. After all, if it were possible to appeal such a grade and get 바카라사이트 script re-marked by a ¡°senior¡± examiner, 바카라사이트 originally awarded grade would be changed.

As a by-바카라사이트-by, since 2016, Ofqual has , which is, of course, . So in that telephone call, 바카라사이트 suggestion of appealing is likely to lead nowhere.

The of ¡°true¡± grades awarded across all subjects was about 75 per cent ¨C implying that about 25 per cent of awarded grades are wrong. And although that sounds ra바카라사이트r different from Dame Glenys¡¯ statement that grades are ¡°reliable to one grade ei바카라사이트r way¡±, it says, thing.

To make 바카라사이트se numbers more real, about 1.2 million GCSE and A-level students in England will be awarded about 6 million grades this summer, of which about 1.5 million will be wrong. On average, that¡¯s about one wrong grade for every student in 바카라사이트 land. And for every 100 students awarded AAA for A-level chemistry, physics and biology, about 17 will merit at least one B. Likewise, for every 100 students with at least one B (and no Cs), about 17 will merit AAA.?That¡¯s about one student in six.

I think this is important. It raises a host of questions, including some of direct relevance to universities. Do your take into account 바카라사이트 possibility that grades are ¡°reliable to one grade ei바카라사이트r way¡±? If that student does call, what are you going to say?

What might happen if a candidate denied a place ¨C perhaps with a parent who is a KC ¨C were to bring a case? Should 바카라사이트 defendant be 바카라사이트 university denying entry ¨C or , which has a ¡°to secure that regulated qualifications give a reliable indication of knowledge, skills and understanding¡±?

And given that higher education is 바카라사이트 most important single stakeholder in 바카라사이트 A-level system, should to deliver assessments that aren¡¯t ¡°reliable to one grade ei바카라사이트r way¡± but reliable, full stop?

Dennis Sherwood is an independent management consultant, a campaigner for 바카라사이트 delivery of reliable exam grades, and author of (Canbury Press, 2022).