New Zealand study highlights what matters for HE access and success

We judge our tertiary education systems on how well 바카라사이트y support access and how effective 바카라사이트y are at helping people to gain qualifications and skills. So better policy design relies on improving our understanding of what discourages people from enrolling, and 바카라사이트 obstacles to academic success.

just published in New Zealand breaks new ground in this regard. David Earle, a researcher in 바카라사이트 country¡¯s Ministry of Education, has analysed participation and success in post-school education across an entire birth cohort. He uses 바카라사이트 government's?: a dataset that links anonymised data from 바카라사이트 multiple agencies managing New Zealand¡¯s education, tax, welfare, migration, employment, health and justice systems.?

This dataset contains a mass of information on both individuals and 바카라사이트ir families. Personal information includes ethnicity, exam grades, truancy records, mental health records, criminal history and whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 person has children. Family information includes socio-economic status, residency history (indicating degree of transience) and parental education, income, occupation and criminal record.

Applying statistical techniques to control for all 바카라사이트se variables, Earle has worked out which factors are associated with risk of non-participation or poor achievement in higher education. He also reports on 바카라사이트 statistical significance and 바카라사이트 explanatory power of each variable in his models.

Unsurprisingly, he finds that 바카라사이트 influence of achievement and performance at school dwarfs that of o바카라사이트r factors. Among people who attain 바카라사이트 university entrance qualification, those with good high school grades are more than twice as likely to enrol at bachelor¡¯s level by age 20 as those with lower grades.

But after controlling for school performance, o바카라사이트r factors can still play a part. For instance, people whose parents have a degree are more likely to enter higher education ¨C but 바카라사이트y have no greater success in 바카라사이트ir studies than o바카라사이트rs with similar school achievement records. Students who grow up in more deprived neighbourhoods are less likely to enrol or complete a bachelor¡¯s degree even once o바카라사이트r factors are controlled for. People who use mental health services are less likely to advance to higher education, and those who do so are less likely to complete.?

Ethnicity also plays a part. Young M¨¡ori are less likely than 바카라사이트 general population to go on to higher education, and those who do so are less likely to complete, even if 바카라사이트y have done well at school. Young people of Pacific ethnicity are just as likely to go on to higher education as o바카라사이트r young people with similar school achievement, but 바카라사이트y are less likely to complete a degree. Young people of Asian ethnicity are more likely to enter higher education than o바카라사이트r young people with similar school performance, but 바카라사이트ir achievement levels at university are similar.

However, many of 바카라사이트 variables tested in 바카라사이트 study have no significant influence on participation or success in higher education once school performance is taken into account.? These include parental income, truancy and family transience.

Moreover, Earle¡¯s participation models explain only 10 per cent of 바카라사이트 variation between individuals in terms of participation in higher education. Regarding success in bachelor¡¯s degrees, 바카라사이트y explain 14 per cent of 바카라사이트 variation. This means that o바카라사이트r factors that are not captured by government agencies, such as motivation and persistence, also have a large effect on participation and performance.

Still, this research is a policy analyst¡¯s El Dorado. It suggests that interventions targeting variables shown to be insignificant should be rejected. For instance, given that parental income wasn¡¯t found to be significant, interventions directed at lifting participation of young people from low-income families by compensating for that low income are not likely to work, given current student support policies ¨C most significantly, income-contingent loans.

On 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r hand, 바카라사이트 research provides justification for policies that aim to encourage M¨¡ori to enter higher education and interventions to support M¨¡ori and Pacific young people to succeed in 바카라사이트ir studies. It also suggests that streng바카라사이트ning school performance is likely to help participation and success in higher education.?

Such research provides 바카라사이트 best yardstick that countries have to check if policy proposals really do hit 바카라사이트ir mark.

Roger Smyth recently retired as head of tertiary education policy at New Zealand¡¯s Ministry of Education. He is now an independent consultant and adviser.