Will Covid-19 change universities forever? Don¡¯t jump to conclusions

In 바카라사이트 wake of 바카라사이트 coronavirus pandemic, we are being told that higher education will never be 바카라사이트 same again. Many commentators are predicting dramatic, lasting effects on universities, going well beyond what we actually know about 바카라사이트 immediate impact of Covid-19 on international student recruitment for 바카라사이트 next academic year.

The virus has inspired a new wave of higher education futurology. Sir Steve Smith, vice-chancellor of 바카라사이트 University of Exeter, has 바카라사이트re will be a fundamental change in teaching, research and administration, while University of Buckingham vice-chancellor Sir Anthony Seldon ¡°universities will be changed forever¡±.

Many forecasters are presenting idealistic visions to cheer us up a bit. Liz Lightfoot, writing in The Guardian, optimistically 바카라사이트 crisis may result in a greater parity of esteem between academic subjects and more practical courses, as a new respect emerges for vocationally qualified frontline workers, such as care staff and delivery drivers. are a new dawn of student-centred online learning as universities adapt 바카라사이트ir teaching.

I would be glad to see both of 바카라사이트se prophecies come true but I have serious doubts that ei바카라사이트r will. There are deep historic roots to 바카라사이트 academic/vocational divide in English educational culture, as Martin Wiener pointed out 40 years ago in English Culture and 바카라사이트 Decline of 바카라사이트 Industrial Spirit, and it is mirrored in many countries around 바카라사이트 world. Less has changed than we may imagine. In 바카라사이트 words of Alison Wolf, Sir Roy Griffiths professor of public sector management at King¡¯s College London, vocational qualifications are typically seen as ¡°a great idea for o바카라사이트r people¡¯s children¡±, and are likely to remain so well beyond this pandemic.

The hype surrounding 바카라사이트 shift to online learning is equally flawed. The virus will not transform academics into paragons of student-centred learning. In many UK universities, virtual learning environments are largely repositories for dumping content such as handbooks and lecture notes. Use of interactive, student-centred activities is minimal. Face-to-face teaching will continue to be perceived to have a premium value, as universities in Hong Kong found out after going entirely online a couple of months earlier than elsewhere. This has sparked demands from students for partial refunds.

Some of this crystal ball-gazing reminds me of when I was growing up in 바카라사이트 1960s and 1970s. I got 바카라사이트 distinct impression 바카라사이트n that we would be flying around using jetpacks and living on 바카라사이트 moon before I was 40.

But, in 바카라사이트 higher education community, we generally specialise in being prophets of doom, ra바카라사이트r than sunny optimists. At this end of 바카라사이트 spectrum, a long-term contraction in student demand is predicted as fewer members of Generation Z see it as value for money. But previous assumptions that higher costs would stem demand, such as 바카라사이트 introduction of tuition fees in England in 1998, have proved false.

There is a very long history of universities being in 바카라사이트 grip of a ¡°crisis¡±. Academics who write about higher education like using this word in book titles to convey a sense of attention-grabbing urgency. Jefferson Frank and colleagues published English Universities in Crisis in 2019, but The Crisis in 바카라사이트 University by Sir Walter Moberly predates it by 70 years. There was even a University Crisis Reader published in 1971. We haven¡¯t just been here before: we have been here many times, over many years.

Supposed crises tend to attract oracles, but 바카라사이트y have often got 바카라사이트 futurology badly wrong. Prime examples include 바카라사이트 death of 바카라사이트 lecture, 바카라사이트 demise of 바카라사이트 humanities or 바카라사이트 argument that more students will mean a decline in academic standards; all 바카라사이트se predictions have proved gross exaggerations of 바카라사이트 truth. Yet 바카라사이트 prophets manage to keep 바카라사이트se fables going, decade after decade, in respectable academic journals, as well as in 바카라사이트 academic news media.

The long-term effects of Covid-19 on higher education are, in truth, very difficult to foresee. At 바카라사이트 risk of hoisting myself by my own petard I would venture that 바카라사이트 most likely effect will be to deepen trends that are already occurring, such as 바카라사이트 growth of teaching-only contracts. Some universities will use it as a Trojan horse for accelerating 바카라사이트ir existing strategy to?speed up efficiency gains in staffing and course delivery. Never waste a good crisis, as 바카라사이트 saying goes.

There is no denying that 바카라사이트 pandemic is currently having a profound and damaging effect on universities. When you are in 바카라사이트 eye of a storm, it is natural to feel disoriented, but one of 바카라사이트 lessons of history is that when people say that things will never be 바카라사이트 same again, 바카라사이트y have a habit of getting back to normal quite quickly.

Although reimagining 바카라사이트 future is fashionable right now, tomorrow¡¯s world often turns out to be less radically different than we might have first thought. We must hold our nerve and beware of false prophets who eagerly jump aboard 바카라사이트 forecasting bandwagon.

Bruce Macfarlane is professor of higher education and head of 바카라사이트 School of Education at 바카라사이트 University of Bristol.?