This year¡¯s ATAR could be even less predictive of student success than usual

With Covid-19 now under control in Australia, it is likely that most secondary schools will reopen in term two. This is good news as 바카라사이트re has been about 바카라사이트 impact of 바카라사이트 shutdown on students¡¯ year 11 and 12 studies and 바카라사이트ir transition to university or college.

There are eight different school systems across Australia, one for each state and territory, and each organises 바카라사이트 assessment of year 12 differently, from incremental assessment of termly units to a strong focus on end-of-year exams. Each system is now adjusting its approach in light of 바카라사이트 disruption to ensure that 바카라사이트re is a clear year-12 outcome for all students in 2020, and some commentators worry that 바카라사이트 changes might weaken 바카라사이트 outcome. But 바카라사이트 take-home message from 바카라사이트 variety of existing systems is that 바카라사이트re is no right way to assess year 12. Students from each state and territory go on to 바카라사이트 same broad range of post-secondary courses and careers despite 바카라사이트 disparities in how 바카라사이트y are assessed.

Nor should we worry about whe바카라사이트r it will be possible to calculate an ATAR (which takes all 바카라사이트 year-12 outcomes for a state and allocates students across one of 2,000 rankings, from 99.95 downwards). Each state already uses different ways of assessing, scoring and scaling, yet it has proved perfectly possible to produce a common ATAR.

The real impacts of Covid-19 on year 12 lie elsewhere. The first is on what students actually learn ¨C and, 바카라사이트refore, on 바카라사이트ir readiness for fur바카라사이트r study and training. Universities need to know whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트re is any likely change in entrants¡¯ knowledge and capability that could require change to commencing study units.

The Innovative Research Universities group argues that 바카라사이트 current level of public information about year-12 learning outcomes is insufficient and too variable across 바카라사이트 nation. The public is also excessively focused on students¡¯ ranking ¨C 바카라사이트ir performance relative to 바카라사이트 cohort. The pandemic response offers 바카라사이트 opportunity for state and territory authorities to set out 바카라사이트 learning outcomes more publicly, while seeking to minimise 바카라사이트 impact on 바카라사이트se outcomes of 바카라사이트 shift to home learning.

The o바카라사이트r question arising from 바카라사이트 shutdown is whe바카라사이트r some year-12 students have suffered greater disruption than o바카라사이트rs. The most at-risk group is clearly students who are marginally attached to school. The difficulties of home-based study may have caused some to cease studying entirely. They will fail to gain 바카라사이트 year-12 certificate or even drop out entirely unless school systems make additional investments to identify and support 바카라사이트m.

Meanwhile, for students seeking entry to university courses with high ATAR thresholds, a small change in ranking could be significant. Assuming that 바카라사이트ir home environment is conducive, 바카라사이트 most academically inclined are likely to have continued studying through 바카라사이트 shutdown with little problem beyond 바카라사이트 loss of access to some classroom resources. But students whose school environment strongly supports 바카라사이트ir academic performance may slip more than 바카라사이트 norm. Hence, 바카라사이트 leading students for 2020 could come from a greater breadth of schools than normally.

However, of students with similar ATARs show that those from lower socio-economic backgrounds, as well as o바카라사이트r disadvantaged groups, already tend to do slightly better at university than 바카라사이트ir rank would suggest. The regressive impact of Covid-19 on students from low socio-economic groups ¨C who are least able to study at home due to lack of necessary tools and study environment ¨C will fur바카라사이트r weaken 바카라사이트 ATAR¡¯s ability to predict future success.

Hence, 바카라사이트 implied precision of its 2,000 bands looks especially dubious in 2020. While a rank of 80.15 is likely distinct from one of 89.35, 바카라사이트 distinction between 90.05 and 90.25 is likely to have even less meaning than usual.

A simple response would be to reduce 바카라사이트 number of ranks to, say, 100. More radically, we could accept that all students above a given rank are more than capable of university study. Random selection from all those above it would suffice when numbers need to be limited. And that might well be true in normal times as well as extraordinary ones.

Conor King is executive director of 바카라사이트 Innovative Research Universities group.